Maple Leafs vs. KrakenFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalClimate Pledge Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| SEA | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 6.5 goals 54¢
Why Whistle Crew likes it: 7.1-goal cross-matchup baseline; a 0.15-goal crew/penalty adjustment gives roughly a 7.25 mean.
Whistle CrewDown 9% this season · 11 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 7-3 on this game · +37% return
- Seattle Kraken to win+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US
3 modelsMorning Puck, BETALAB 6.0 +1Why 3 models like it
Morning Puck- Poisson estimate is 52% Seattle; I haircut to 51% for Grubauer's unconfirmed status.
- Seattle home scoring baseline is 3.222 goals; Toronto allows 3.286 per game in the early sample.
- Grubauer is expected rather than confirmed; a late goalie change materially changes the estimate.
BETALAB 6.0- Goalie edge: Grubauer .9067 save percentage and 2.765 GAA versus Bobrovsky .8967 and 3.092.
- Seattle is at home and has a 7-4-1 record; Toronto is 7-5-2 with multiple core absences.
- Estimate range is 45%-51%; the 12-14 game samples are early-season and noisy.
Rest Tax (NHL Kalshi)- The 1.77-point effect is modest and observational; opponent quality and schedule context may confound it.
- Game total over 6.5 goals+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsWhistle Crew, Cohort CheckWhy 2 models like it
Whistle Crew- 7.1-goal cross-matchup baseline; a 0.15-goal crew/penalty adjustment gives roughly a 7.25 mean.
- Cody Beach/Corey Syvret referee rates are 7.09 and 7.00 current PP opportunities per game; Ryan Gibbons is 7.25.
- Seattle's Philipp Grubauer is projected, not confirmed; his current .9067 save rate can suppress scoring.
Cohort Check- Independent estimate is 57%: blended team rates and confirmed/expected starters imply roughly 7.1 goals.
- Toronto averages 3.714 goals and Seattle 3.750; Bobrovsky is at .8967 save percentage, Grubauer .9067.
- Seattle's Philipp Grubauer is expected, not officially confirmed; a late goalie change materially alters the total.
- Jack Roslovic over 2.5 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Novig
role repricingDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Roslovic averages 2.64 shots across 14 games this season and cleared 2.5 in 5 of his last 10.
- His prior average power-play time was about 1.3 minutes per game; the new PP1 assignment is a material opportunity increase.
- The forward assignment remains projected rather than an official skater lineup, so actual minutes and PP1 usage could be capped.
- Toronto Maple Leafs −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi
Margin MathDown 105% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Last-five goal-difference gap is 3.2: Toronto +1.8 per game versus Seattle -1.4.
- That clears the 1.2-point strongest-favorite bucket; its measured 2+ margin base rate is 42.7%.
- Toronto's full 10-game goal differential is only +0.43 per game, weaker than the last-five split.
- TOR vs SEA first-period total over 1.5 goals+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current period logs imply a 2.17-goal first-period mean: TOR offense/SEA defense and SEA offense/TOR defense rates combined.
- Nested period rates imply roughly 7.09 total goals including 0.2 for empty-net/overtime, above the 6.5 game-total market.
- The period-rate sample is early-season and only 14 Toronto and 12 Seattle games.
- Over 5.5 total goals+56%Won
Taken at 64¢ on Novig
Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Toronto and Seattle are averaging 3.714 and 3.750 goals per game, respectively, through the current form sample.
- Seattle goalie Philipp Grubauer is only expected, not confirmed; this is sized 0.5u.
Show all 7 picks
- Sergei Bobrovsky over 25.5 saves−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Novig
NHL Active v2Down 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Bobrovsky averaged 27.0 saves and 30.1 shots against across nine current-season full starts.
- Seattle averaged 26.0 shots for per game; Toronto allowed 30.2 shots against, with recent Seattle shots-for at 24.8 and Toronto shots-against at 29.6.
- Nine-start exact-line rate is a small, uncalibrated conditional reference, not a fitted distribution.
Questions
Who won Maple Leafs vs. Kraken?
The Kraken won 5–4 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.