Mammoth vs. FlyersFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalXfinity Mobile Arena
Mammoth
3–6Final
Flyers
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| PHI | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
Top model pick, graded
WonPhiladelphia Flyers +1.5 62¢
Why Fair Fence likes it: trailing goal-differential gap is 1.9 (Utah +0.4, Philadelphia -1.5), placing this in the strong-favorite bucket.
Fair FenceUp 13% return this season · 22 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
12 picks from 12 models
- Utah Mammoth to win1.55x65¢
+55% profit if it wins
2 modelsThe Stanley Cup, Fade the GoalieWhy 2 models like it
The Stanley Cup- Utah is 9-5 with 3.64 goals per game; Philadelphia is 3-8-4 with 1.93.
- Utah leads 5-on-5 possession: 55.4% Corsi and 55.5% Fenwick, versus Philadelphia's 43.8% and 43.4%.
- Utah's Karel Vejmelka is expected but unconfirmed; this is not a high-conviction goalie gate pass.
Fade the Goalie- Dan Vladar is confirmed and has stopped 182 of 205 shots (.888) across his seven latest starts, roughly 3.8 saves below a .9065 starter reference.
- Utah ranks above the opponent-quality gate: 55.4% 5v5 Corsi, 9-5 record, and 3.643 goals per game.
- Utah's Karel Vejmelka remains expected rather than officially confirmed, so a late goalie change would materially alter the matchup.
- Philadelphia Flyers to win2.56x39¢
+156% profit if it wins
2 modelsNHL Active v2, Regulation GapWhy 2 models like it
NHL Active v2- Philadelphia's goalie Dan Vladar was confirmed at 10:50 AM; the game and player participation are current for this contract.
- Policy-qualified reference-price edge only; no unsupported adjustment was made to the Pinnacle probability.
- Philadelphia is 3-8-4 with 1.93 goals per game; Utah is 9-5-0 with 3.64 goals per game.
Regulation Gap- Both goalies remain expected rather than confirmed: Karel Vejmelka for Utah and Dan Vladar for Philadelphia.
- Philadelphia Flyers +1.51.61x62¢
+61% profit if it wins
Fair FenceUp 13% profit over 22 picksWhy it likes it
- trailing goal-differential gap is 1.9 (Utah +0.4, Philadelphia -1.5), placing this in the strong-favorite bucket.
- Margin model makes Flyers +1.5 about 65.0% fair, roughly -186; ProphetX -160 implies 61.5%.
- Both sides of the +1.5 rung are live and the +1.5/+2.5/+3.5 ladder is monotone.
- Utah Vejmelka and Philadelphia Vladar remain expected, not officially confirmed, about three hours before start.
- Game total over 6.52.27x44¢
+127% profit if it wins
Cold NetNew modelWhy it likes it
- Utah averages 30.5 shots, fifth of 32 teams; the rate is shrunk toward last season's 27.71.
- Dan Vladar is confirmed for Philadelphia; his .8878 save rate trails Joseph Woll's .8988 by about 0.33 goals per 30 shots.
- Pinnacle's sharp reference is 6.0, satisfying the brief's 6.5-or-lower total gate.
- Utah's Karel Vejmelka remains expected rather than confirmed, adding goalie uncertainty on the other side.
- Mikhail Sergachev over 0.5 assists1.92x52¢
+92% profit if it wins
role repricingDown 8% profit over 32 picksWhy it likes it
- 57% assist-hit rate: Sergachev recorded an assist in 8 of 14 games.
- 12 assists in 14 games; current 1.143 points/game supports continued puck involvement.
- Projected on Utah's first power-play unit with Marino and Lamoureux out; responsibility is dated 10/30.
- Utah's 68.1% penalty kill is a meaningful cap on Philadelphia power-play creation.
- Barrett Hayton over 1.5 shots on goal1.96x51¢
+96% profit if it wins
NHL Player Prop EdgeDown 12% profit over 25 picksWhy it likes it
- 2.07 SOG/game over 14 games; 9 of 14 cleared 1.5.
- Last five: 2.8 SOG/game and 5-for-5 over 1.5.
- 14.2 minutes per game with projected third-line and second-power-play deployment.
- Current-season sample is only 14 games, so the recent five-game surge may regress.
Show all 10 picks
- Utah Mammoth −1.52.56x39¢
+156% profit if it wins
Overtime TaxDown 22% profit over 34 picksWhy it likes it
- Polymarket moneyline implies a devigged 61.4% Utah win probability from 62¢/39¢.
- Utah's current +0.357 goal differential per game versus Philadelphia's -1.467 is a 1.824-goal form gap.
- Both projected goalies, Karel Vejmelka and Dan Vladar, remain expected rather than officially confirmed.
- Trevor Zegras over 0.5 points1.73x58¢
+73% profit if it wins
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 7% profit over 627 picksWhy it likes it
- 1.80 points per game over his last five, versus the 0.5 projection.
- Zegras recorded a point in 7 of his last 10 games, totaling 11 points.
- Projected on Philadelphia's top even-strength line and first power-play unit.
- The 2026 sample is only 10-15 games, so the recent scoring rate can regress.
- Dan Vladar total saves over 25.51.95x51¢
+95% profit if it wins
Crease WorkloadUp 16% profit over 87 picksWhy it likes it
- No early-pull haircut: Philadelphia is +138, not worse than +200; Vladar's completeGamePct is 1.00
- Vladar's 29.08 shots-against per 60 is within 4.0 of the 28.99 blend; rest is known, with both teams off yesterday
- Partial coverage: Utah has only 14 current games and Vladar has seven starts
- Game over 5.5 total goals1.82x55¢
+82% profit if it wins
Empty Net LedgerUp 16% profit over 27 picksWhy it likes it
- Projection: 6.3 total goals after adding the 0.21-goal empty-net term; Over 5.5 estimates 60.5% versus 55c.
- Utah is the clear favorite at -185, with a projected margin near 0.9 goals—the late one-goal setup supports empty-net scoring.
- Hard-shrunk shot blend projects roughly 25.1 Philadelphia shots and 28.2 Utah shots, with finishing near 11.2% and 11.5%.
- Both projected goalies are unconfirmed: Dan Vladar for Philadelphia and Karel Vejmelka for Utah.
Questions
Who won Mammoth vs. Flyers?
The Flyers won 6–3 on Sunday, Nov 1, 2026.