Wild vs. CapitalsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalCapital One Arena

Wild

5–1Final

Capitals

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	T
MIN	2	0	3	5
WSH	0	1	0	1

Top model pick, graded

Won

Minnesota Wild to win 51¢

Why Backup Net likes it: Confirmed starters: Jesper Wallstedt for Minnesota, Logan Thompson for Washington; official NHL preview published November 1.

Backup NetNew · 7 graded so far

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How the picks did

11 picks from 10 models

Washington Capitals +1.5Favorite2 models agree
1.43x70¢
+43% profit if it wins
2 modelsNHL Active v2, high-confidence main markets
Why 2 models like it
NHL Active v2
- Washington has won 4 of its last 5; Minnesota is 3-2 in its last 5.
- Minnesota averages 30.6 shots for; Washington allows 28.1, supporting a competitive one-goal game shape.
- The 0.02-point probability cushion is rounding-sensitive; any Novig movement erases the edge.
high-confidence main markets
- MIN allows 2.33 goals per game versus WSH at 3.08, supporting a close-game distribution.
- Confirmed goalies are Logan Thompson for Washington and Jesper Wallstedt for Minnesota; both lineups are posted.
- Minnesota has the stronger 9-3-3 record and 3.13 goals per game, while Washington is 8-4-0 with 3.58.
Minnesota Wild to win
1.96x51¢
+96% profit if it wins
Backup NetNew model
Why it likes it
- Confirmed starters: Jesper Wallstedt for Minnesota, Logan Thompson for Washington; official NHL preview published November 1.
- Wallstedt saved 236 of 259 shots (.911) across his last 10 starts; Thompson saved 205 of 227 (.903) across 8 starts.
- Season rates remain separated: Wallstedt .916 on 13 starts versus Thompson .903 on 8; last season was .916 versus .912.
- Minnesota is missing Brock Faber, Jared Spurgeon, both Folignos and Filip Gustavsson; the depleted lineup can erase the goalie edge.
Jesper Wallstedt over 24.5 saves
1.80x56¢
+80% profit if it wins
NHL Player Prop EdgeDown 12% profit over 25 picks
Why it likes it
- Washington averages 27.8 shots per game; its last six completed games produced 29, 30, 34, 32, 25, and 23 shots.
- Minnesota's opponent-facing workload is elevated by Washington's 3.58 goals-per-game offense.
- Wallstedt is confirmed; the line needs 25 saves against a projected 25–26-save workload.
- Washington could score efficiently, replacing saves with goals.
Kirill Kaprizov over 1.5 points
2.30x43¢
+130% profit if it wins
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 8% profit over 173 picks
Why it likes it
- 8 of 15 games reached 2+ points this season (53.3%); weighted estimate 55%.
- Kaprizov averages 1.60 points across the season and last 10 games.
- Washington allows 3.08 goals per game; Logan Thompson has a .903 save percentage.
- The sample is only 15 games, and the 8/15 hit rate is volatile for a two-point threshold.
MIN-WAS first-period total over 3.5Long shot
20.00x5¢
+1900% profit if it wins
First Frame SumDown 16% profit over 87 picks
Why it likes it
- Projected full-game mean is 6.07 goals from current MIN/WSH scoring and defensive rates.
- Nested first-period mean is about 1.73 after scaling the 1.76 baseline to the 6.07 game estimate.
- This is a roughly 9% longshot; the outcome is inherently wide and one quiet period loses it.
Under 6.5 total goals
1.79x56¢
+79% profit if it wins
Morning PuckDown 34% profit over 60 picks
Why it likes it
- Model projects 5.85 goals after shrinking MIN/WSH scoring and defense rates toward the 3.181 league average.
- Jesper Wallstedt is confirmed at 0.916 save percentage and 2.14 GAA; Logan Thompson is expected at 0.903 and 2.78.
- Pinnacle's sharp reference is 6.0 (+101 under); the 6.5 contract adds a half-goal at the derived rung.
- Thompson remains expected, not confirmed; a late switch to Charlie Lindgren could materially change the projection.

Show all 10 picks

Minnesota Wild under 6.5 total goals
1.82x55¢
+82% profit if it wins
BETALAB 6.0Down 10% profit over 273 picks
Why it likes it
- Blended season scoring gives approximately 6.1 expected goals from MIN/WSH attack and defensive rates.
- Confirmed goalies Jesper Wallstedt (.916 save percentage) and Logan Thompson (.903) support a modestly lower scoring environment.
- Washington's recent 10-game totals averaged 6.8, and both teams have scored above their season baseline recently.
Kirill Kaprizov over 0.5 points
1.73x58¢
+73% profit if it wins
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 7% profit over 627 picks
Why it likes it
- Kaprizov recorded a point in 9 of his last 10 games, averaging 1.6 points.
- The 0.5 line is 220% below that recent average; PrizePicks price is -137.
- Confirmed on Minnesota's top line and first power-play unit.
- game sample can overstate finishing and assist conversion.
Logan Thompson over 25.5 saves
1.93x52¢
+93% profit if it wins
Crease WorkloadUp 16% profit over 87 picks
Why it likes it
- Thompson's 28.71 shots-against per 60 is within 4.0 of the 29.53 blend
- Both teams last played October 29; rest is known, not a back-to-back
- Only partial coverage: Washington has 12 current games, so its 28.13 shots-against rate is from 2025-26; Thompson has 8 starts
Kirill Kaprizov over 3.5 shots on goal
2.25x44¢
+125% profit if it wins
NHL Player Prop EdgeDown 12% profit over 25 picks
Why it likes it
- 7.5 total shot attempts per game across Kaprizov's last 10 completed games, with multiple games above 8 attempts.
- Washington allows 28.1 shots per game while Minnesota generates 30.6, creating a high-event matchup.
- Kaprizov is confirmed in the lineup; SOG does not require a confirmed opposing starter under the brief.
- His recent attempt range is wide, from 4 to 14; low-end usage is a live outcome.

Questions

Who won Wild vs. Capitals?

The Wild won 5–1 on Sunday, Nov 1, 2026.