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Devils vs. AvalancheFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalBall Arena
Devils
2–5Final
Avalanche
Score by period
Team123T
NJ1012
COL0145

Top model pick, graded

Won

Nathan MacKinnon under 3.5 shots on goal 48¢

Why Hot Hand Tax likes it: 38 shots across MacKinnon's last 10 games puts him inside the required 3.5, 4.0 candidate bucket.

Hot Hand TaxNew · 8 graded so far
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How the picks did

Models went 10-6 on this game · +30% return

  1. New Jersey Devils to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +126 on FanDuel

    3 modelsAlways wins, NHL Ice Edge +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Always wins
    • 84% of tickets reportedly backed Colorado; DraftKings moved Avalanche -180 to -148.
    • Pinnacle moved Colorado -172 to -137, a clear counter-move against the public favorite.
    • New Jersey played Dallas on October 27, creating a road back-to-back and travel disadvantage.
    NHL Ice Edge
    • Last-10 5v5 Corsi favors New Jersey 58.1% to Colorado 51.1%; season baseline is 59.4% to 50.9%.
    • Last-10 shot differential is +9.7 per game for New Jersey versus +0.2 for Colorado; season gap is similarly wide.
    • New Jersey is on a back-to-back with one rest day; Colorado has three days of rest and home ice.
    Shot Share Lag
    • Blended 5v5 score-close SAT: NJD .568 versus COL .551; the possession edge is with the underdog.
    • Blended PDO: NJD .981 versus COL 1.039; Colorado's hot shooting/save combination is the regression side.
    • Colorado's .893 starter save percentage is poor but can still beat a Devils team on a back-to-back.
  2. Nathan MacKinnon under 3.5 shots on goalHigh conviction
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Novig

    Hot Hand TaxUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 38 shots across MacKinnon's last 10 games puts him inside the required 3.5, 4.0 candidate bucket.
    • The brief's bucket baseline gives a 60% under fair for this home player; no road adjustment applies.
    • MacKinnon has a 4.17 SOG average over the broader 20-game sample, so the 10-game bucket may understate his baseline.
  3. Artturi Lehkonen over 0.5 pointsHigh conviction
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 5 straight games with a point entering tonight; 8 points in that span.
    • His 5-game point average is 1.6, 220% above the 0.5 projection.
    • Lehkonen is confirmed in Colorado's top line and second power-play unit.
    • Five-game form is a small early-season sample and includes unusually high scoring.
  4. Colorado Avalanche over 3.5 team goals
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Leaky NetUp 109% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Jake Allen starts for New Jersey after Hellebuyck started the previous night.
    • Allen has a .8864 save rate in 12 current-season appearances; he is not a strong co-starter.
    • Sharp 6.5 total split by Colorado's 57.4% moneyline share gives 3.73 baseline goals.
    • Colorado's projected top line and power-play units are marked expected, not officially confirmed.
  5. Game total over 6.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Spare ShootoutUp 97% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Jake Allen starts for New Jersey; he is the backup behind Connor Hellebuyck, while Colorado's confirmed starter is Mackenzie Blackwood.
    • New Jersey averages 32.47 shots over 15 games, second-highest in the 33-team sample; its matchup expectation is 30.07 shots versus Colorado.
    • Colorado allows only 27.67 shots per game over the sample, lowering New Jersey's matchup projection below its raw 32.47 average.
  6. Game goes to overtimeLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi

    Overtime BookUp 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle devigged Colorado moneyline: 57.4%; regulation-spread ladder has Colorado -1.5 at 36.8%.
    • Pinnacle 6.5-goal total: 48.1% over, supporting a fairly tight scoring distribution rather than a runaway.
    • Early-season rates are shrunk toward last season's 24.8% overtime base; confirmed goalies are Jake Allen and Mackenzie Blackwood.
    • A one-goal game can still finish in regulation; the ladder-to-tie conversion is approximate without a true sportsbook three-way line.
Show all 14 picks
  1. Colorado Avalanche to win
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US

    Backup TaxUp 65% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability: Colorado 60.5% after a hard blend toward 2025 scoring rates and a 0.30-goal Allen backup penalty.
    • Jake Allen is confirmed for New Jersey after Hellebuyck started Tuesday; Allen is at .886 this season versus the .9065 reference.
    • Mackenzie Blackwood is confirmed for Colorado with exactly 8 current-season starts, clearing the early-season starter gate; he is the established starter over Wedgewood.
    • Colorado's 60.5% estimate is model-sensitive; current-season samples are only 12 team games.
  2. Colorado Avalanche −1.5
    +178%Won

    Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

    Spare Crease SpreadUp 46% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jake Allen was confirmed for New Jersey, and a current game preview explicitly calls him the Devils' backup; Mackenzie Blackwood was confirmed for Colorado.
    • Through 12 games, Colorado averages 4.083 goals scored and New Jersey allows 2.750; the +0.3-goal backup adjustment raises Colorado's scoring projection.
    • A goal-difference projection including empty-net scoring gives Colorado a 40% chance to win by 2+ goals.
    • Colorado is only 6-5-1 while New Jersey is 8-4 after 12 games, so this is below the strongest-favorite 43% base-rate tier.
  3. Nicolas Roy over 0.5 points
    +178%Won

    Taken at 36¢ on Novig

    role repricingDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Oct. 28 catalyst: Zachary L'Heureux is on IR; Nicolas Roy returns directly to Colorado's second line.
    • Roy's current line is Roy, Brock Nelson, Gabriel Landeskog; the assignment is role-specific, not displaced-star talent transfer.
    • Roy has 4 points in 6 games, with 1.912 five-on-five goals/60 and 0.956 primary assists/60.
    • The line feed is expected, not an official shift confirmation; current minutes are unquantified.
  4. New Jersey Devils spread +1.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −192 on DraftKings

    high-confidence main marketsDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • New Jersey leads season shot differential 33.6-23.5 per game; Colorado is only 29.3-28.4.
    • Confirmed Jake Allen posted a .923 save percentage in his latest start; Mackenzie Blackwood is at .892 season-long.
    • Devils are 8-4 and Colorado 6-5-1; my fair cover probability is 68%, about -212, versus -192.
    • New Jersey is on a back-to-back with one day of rest; Colorado has three days and home ice.
  5. Jack Hughes under 3.5 shots on goal
    +68%Won

    Taken at −148 on FanDuel

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Research grade B73: exact FanDuel offer, confirmed participant, and no injury restriction.
    • 8 of Hughes's 12 games stayed under 3.5 SOG (66.7% decided); no pushes.
    • Season total is 45 SOG in 12 games (3.75 per game), but the empirical under rate exceeds the 59.7% FanDuel implied price.
    • The projected line assignment is expected rather than officially confirmed, although Hughes's game participation is confirmed.
  6. New Jersey Devils +1.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 65¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Devils have a 59.2% Corsi rate and 59.3% 5v5 rate versus Colorado's 51.2% and 51.0%.
    • Devils allow 23.5 shots per game versus Colorado's 28.4, with confirmed Jake Allen and Mackenzie Blackwood starts.
    • New Jersey is on a back-to-back while Colorado has three days rest.
  7. Jake Allen over 26.5 total saves
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Colorado's prior 33.73 shots-for rate and New Jersey's 27.37 shots-against rate support the workload lens.
    • Most likely loss: Colorado produces 26 or fewer shots, leaving Allen at 26 saves or fewer.
  8. Mackenzie Blackwood under 26.5 saves
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Novig

    NHL Active v2Down 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current-season exact-line log: under 26.5 saves in 5 of 8 starts (62.5%), averaging 23.5 saves; no pulled/relief starts in the sample.
    • Blackwood’s current 8-start profile is 27.08 shots against per 60, .8925 save percentage and 4 quality starts; workload, not a low-save-rate shortcut, drives the read.
    • New Jersey averages 33.6 shots per game and Colorado allows 28.4; 30-plus Devils shots can push saves above 26.5.

Questions

Who won Devils vs. Avalanche?

The Avalanche won 5–2 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.

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