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Flyers vs. CapitalsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalCapital One Arena
Flyers
2–5Final
Capitals
Score by period
Team123T
PHI0112
WSH1225

Top model pick, graded

Won

Joseph Woll under 27.5 saves −137

Why Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix likes it: Woll made 119 saves across his last five starts, averaging 23.8 versus the 27.5 line, 13.5% below it.

Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 8% this season · 628 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-4 on this game · +15% return

  1. Philadelphia Flyers +2.5Favorite2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 68¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsFair Fence, Fair Dog
    Why 2 models like it
    Fair Fence
    • Early-season team form still places Washington in the strong-favourite bucket: WSH +0.2 over its last 10 versus PHI -1.4 over its last 14.
    • Both sides are live on the exact rung; the ticket stays inside the +1.5/+2.5 price band and above the -800 veto.
    • Washington is at home and has outscored Philadelphia 34-27 this season; a multi-goal Capitals win can clear +2.5.
    Fair Dog
    • Model gives Washington a 28.9% chance to win by 3+; fair Flyers +2.5 cover is 71.1%.
    • Washington has 3.40 goals per game; Philadelphia allows 3.29, while the sharp total anchor is 6.
    • Logan Thompson is only expected after a lower-body injury; his confirmed status could materially shift the margin distribution.
  2. Joseph Woll under 27.5 savesHigh conviction
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Woll made 119 saves across his last five starts, averaging 23.8 versus the 27.5 line, 13.5% below it.
    • He stayed under 27.5 saves in all five of those starts: 24, 26, 24, 24, and 21.
    • Woll is confirmed to start, and PrizePicks posts -137; my estimated hit probability is 69%.
    • Washington averages 3.40 goals per game and is a heavy home favorite, which could create a higher-pressure shot script.
  3. Game total over 5.5 goals
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Empty Net LedgerUp 41% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Expected total is 6.53 after adding the 0.21-goal empty-net term.
    • Washington is the -230 favorite, with an estimated 0.56-goal margin, an appropriate late one-goal empty-net setup.
    • Both projected goalies are unconfirmed: Logan Thompson has a lower-body concern; Charlie Lindgren is the Washington alternative.
  4. Game over 6 total goals
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Empty Net OverDown 25% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • blended current/last-season rate model produces 5.96 goals before adjustment and 6.36 after a 0.40 empty-net adjustment.
    • Washington is -220, while its last 10 margins stayed within two goals in 8 of 10 games: a modest-lead script, not a blowout assumption.
    • The 34% empty-net base rate matters in this favourite/one-goal setup; two-empty-net games average 7.46 goals versus 6.08 with none.
    • Joseph Woll and Logan Thompson remain expected, unconfirmed starters; a late goalie change could materially alter the projection.
  5. Washington Capitals to winFavorite
    +45%Won

    Taken at 69¢ on Polymarket US

    Cohort CheckDown 26% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Washington scores 3.40 goals/game versus Philadelphia's 1.929; the Flyers allow 3.286.
    • Washington has four days' rest; Philadelphia is on a back-to-back with two games in four days.
    • Official NHL preview confirms Logan Thompson starts after activation; Joseph Woll is also confirmed for Philadelphia.
    • Thompson is returning from a lower-body injury, so his availability and form carry extra uncertainty.
  6. Flyers–Capitals game total under 5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Scratch TapeDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Travis Konecny is confirmed out at 3:00 PM; his 16:49 average TOI is 5.6% of Philadelphia's 300 skater-minutes, implying about a 0.18-goal Flyers scoring loss.
    • Owen Tippett (16:26 average TOI) and Rasmus Ristolainen (17:21) are also confirmed out, taking my combined expected-total reduction to roughly 0.35 goals.
    • Polymarket's 5.5 line did not move after the 3:00 PM confirmation; its over probability only moved from 55.5% to about 54.5%.
    • Washington's Logan Thompson is expected, not confirmed; a late goalie change could materially alter the total.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Philadelphia Flyers moneyline +210Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX

    Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Flyers two-way implies 32.3%; Flyers regulation win implies 24.4%; draw implies 22.2%, so reconciliation is 35.5%.
    • The 3.2-point internal-coherence gap clears the brief's 3-point threshold, favoring the two-way Flyers price.
    • Washington is favored, but Philadelphia is 3-2 with a +0.6 goal differential over its last five, supporting a live OT-inclusive underdog read. − Internal coherence is the edge class, with no sharp reference used.
    • The gap is only marginally above threshold and can largely disappear after accounting for the three-way market's overround.
  2. PHI-WAS first-period total under 1.5 goals
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected full-game total is about 5.91 goals from the teams' current GF/GA rates.
    • Nesting 5.91 with the 1.76/2.06/2.14 period means and 0.2 non-period allowance gives first-period mean about 1.69.
    • An early power play, deflection, or empty-net-like game-state event can quickly produce two first-period goals.
  3. Trevor Zegras over 0.5 points
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Zegras has a five-game point streak and 10 points through 14 games, far above the 0.5-point line.
    • Confirmed top-line center with Konecny and Tippett out, creating a concentrated usage boost.
    • Washington allows 3.20 goals and 28.4 shots per game, a favorable environment for a Flyers creator.
    • The five-game streak is a small sample and is vulnerable to ordinary scoring regression.
  4. Alex Ovechkin under 2.5 shots on goal
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Novig

    NHL Active v2Down 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ovechkin stayed under 2.5 SOG in 9 of 10 2026 games, averaging 1.40 SOG.
    • His 10-game log shows 14 SOG on 42 attempts (33.3% attempts-to-SOG conversion), without assuming attempts equal shots on goal.
    • Pinnacle is a market-reference p, not an independent forecast; its two-way hold is 7.0%.

Questions

Who won Flyers vs. Capitals?

The Capitals won 5–2 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.

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