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Flames vs. OilersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalRogers Place
Flames
0–4Final
Oilers
Score by period
Team123T
CGY0000
EDM1124

Top model pick, graded

Won

Tristan Jarry over 22.5 saves 49¢

Why NHL Active v2 likes it: Jarry confirmed at 11:40am; the current participant feed confirms him at 4:58pm PDT.

NHL Active v2Down 1% this season · 41 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-8 on this game · −25% return

  1. Calgary Flames to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +160 on DraftKings

    3 modelsAlways wins, NHL Ice Edge +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Always wins
    • 71% of public tickets reportedly backed Edmonton; DraftKings moved Oilers -218 to -192.
    • Pinnacle also moved Edmonton -206 to -180, confirming resistance against the public favorite.
    • Edmonton is 8-2-2 with 4.33 goals per game, materially stronger than Calgary's 2.55.
    NHL Ice Edge
    • Recent 5v5 Corsi proxy: Calgary 51.2% over its last 10 versus Edmonton 46.2%.
    • Season 5v5 Corsi proxy is 51.9% Calgary versus 47.9% Edmonton.
    • Edmonton owns home ice and is scoring 4.33 goals per game this season.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • Confirmed goalie matchup favors Calgary: Devin Cooley .915 save percentage and 66.7% quality starts versus Tristan Jarry at .868 and 40.0%.
    • Calgary is 4-1 in its last five; Edmonton is 3-2, while Polymarket US improved Calgary from roughly 33.5¢ overnight to 38¢.
    • Edmonton remains 8-2-2 with 4.33 goals per game; Calgary is 5-6 with 2.55 goals per game this season.
  2. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +18700

    Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Hawks -124 (55.36¢): Atlanta owns an +8.6 net rating versus Miami at -11.9, with the Heat 0-4 and losing four straight.
    • Oilers -170 (62.96¢): Edmonton is 8-2-2 with 4.33 goals per game; Calgary is 5-6-0 and averages 2.55.
    • Both projected lineups are unconfirmed; late scratches can materially change either moneyline.
  3. Game over 6.5 total goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Novig

    Second String ShootoutUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's same-line over/under (-112/+100) de-vigs to 51.4% over; the backup-goalie adjustment lifts fair probability to 56.0%.
    • Edmonton starts Tristan Jarry, who has four starts versus Devon Levi's seven; Levi and Frederik Andersen are out.
    • Calgary's recent five-game shot-attempt proxy is 29.0, blended with Edmonton's 28.4 allowed over its recent five: 28.7, inside the top 40% trigger.
    • The +4.0-point gap is exactly the minimum; this is sized at 0.5u rather than full stake.
  4. Calgary Flames +2.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 71¢ on ProphetX

    Fair FenceUp 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • fair probability estimated at 75.5% (fair about -308) for this favourite-strength margin bucket; ProphetX implies 70.6%.
    • Edmonton's current form margin is +0.8 over its last 12; Calgary is -1.2 over its last 11, but the gap supports a favourite without requiring a three-goal win.
    • Confirmed starters are Devin Cooley (.915 current save percentage) and Tristan Jarry (.868); the goalie matchup improves Calgary's margin protection.
    • Calgary loses the ticket if Edmonton wins by 3 or more; Edmonton is scoring 4.333 goals per game in the early sample.
  5. Tristan Jarry over 22.5 saves
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Novig

    NHL Active v2Down 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jarry confirmed at 11:40am; the current participant feed confirms him at 4:58pm PDT.
    • Calgary averages 29.18 shots; Edmonton allows 27.17, while its last five opponents averaged 29.0.
    • Jarry's four current starts produced 28/30/28/20 shots faced and 24.0 saves per start; over 22.5 in 3/4.
    • Edmonton's season suppression can hold Calgary below 27 shots; no fitted distribution is assumed.
  6. Edmonton Oilers puck line −1.5
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

    Spare Crease SpreadUp 46% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live feed confirmed Devin Cooley for Calgary; preseason depth order listed Dustin Wolf primary with Cooley as backup.
    • Season scoring rates: Edmonton 4.333 GF/game versus Calgary 3.727 GA/game; Calgary scores 2.545 versus Edmonton allowing 3.583.
    • Poisson goal-difference projection with the +0.3 backup-goalie penalty and empty-net tail gives Edmonton a 46% chance to win by 2+.
    • Cooley has seized a larger current workload, six starts to Wolf's five, and is at .915, so the backup classification may overstate the penalty.
Show all 11 picks
  1. Game total over 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Cohort CheckDown 26% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total is 6.9, 7.1 goals from current team rates and confirmed goalie adjustments; own over probability is about 55%.
    • Edmonton scores 4.333 goals per game; Calgary allows 3.727.
    • Confirmed Tristan Jarry owns an .868 save percentage; confirmed Devin Cooley is .915, creating a high-variance but elevated scoring setup.
    • Six or fewer goals loses; NHL scoring is highly discrete and empty-net outcomes add variance.
  2. Connor McDavid over 1.5 points
    +71%Won

    Taken at −140 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 8 of McDavid's 12 completed 2026 games reached 2+ points (66.7%).
    • He cleared 1.5 points in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging 3.2 points in that span.
    • Confirmed on Edmonton's top forward line and first power-play unit; participation and role are resolved.
    • The sample is only 12 games and includes an unusually strong recent 5-game run.
  3. Connor McDavid under 3.5 shots on goal
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • McDavid averages 2.70 shots on goal over his last 10 games, 23% below the 3.5 projection.
    • Calgary's confirmed Devin Cooley has stopped 66 of 68 shots across two recent starts (.971 save percentage).
    • Calgary has won three straight while Edmonton has lost consecutive home games, a recent-form matchup signal against an explosive night.
    • McDavid's elite minutes, power-play role, and shot creation can overcome a below-line recent average.
  4. Devin Cooley over 27.0 saves
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cooley recorded 34, 36, and 28 saves in his last three starts: 32.7 average, 21% above 27.
    • He cleared this line in all three documented starts.
    • PrizePicks posts 27.0 at -137; my estimated win probability is 62%, above the roughly 58% break-even rate.
    • A Calgary defensive game or an Edmonton shooting slump can hold Cooley below 28 saves.
  5. Tristan Jarry over 22.5 total saves
    +83%Won

    Taken at −120 on DraftKings

    Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jarry's .8682 save percentage is 3.68 points below .905; prescribed regression supports the over.
    • Most likely loss: Calgary produces 22 or fewer shots, leaving Jarry at 22 saves or fewer.

Questions

Who won Flames vs. Oilers?

The Oilers won 4–0 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.

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