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Islanders vs. StarsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAmerican Airlines Center
Islanders
3–6Final
Stars
Score by period
Team123T
NYI1203
DAL2136

Top model pick, graded

Won

New York Islanders @ Dallas Stars over 5.5 total 48¢

Why Empty Net Math likes it: Team goal rates imply 5.5 goals; adding 0.2 empty-net adjustment gives a 5.7-goal mean.

Empty Net MathDown 18% this season · 48 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 3-10 on this game · −57% return

  1. Game total under 5.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −128 on FanDuel

    2 modelshigh-confidence main markets, BETALAB 6.0
    Why 2 models like it
    high-confidence main markets
    • Dallas allows 1.7 goals per game and 21.9 shots per game through 10; both rank as strong run-prevention inputs.
    • Each team’s five most recent games finished at 5 or fewer total goals: 10 of 10 under 5.5.
    • The 5.5 line is close to the NHL scoring mean; one early special-teams sequence can swing the distribution.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • Goalies are confirmed: Oettinger .939 SV%/1.23 GAA in 8 starts; Sorokin .934/.1.72 in 7 starts.
    • Ten-game form supports a controlled environment: Dallas allows 1.7 goals/game and the teams average 4.6 and 4.8 total goals across their last five.
    • Dallas skater lineup remains expected rather than fully confirmed; six Stars are listed out, including Esa Lindell and Matt Duchene.
  2. Game under 4.5 total goalsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 28¢ on Novig

    Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle 5.5 total plus the de-vigged moneyline imply a Poisson total mean of 5.5; model fair under 4.5 is 35.8%.
    • Both projected starters are explicitly unconfirmed; a goalie change could materially alter the low-total estimate.
  3. Matthew Schaefer anytime goalFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 80¢ on Kalshi

    Hot Hand CoolerDown 49% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 40 tracked shots on goal averaged 45.9 feet; only 4 came from within 25 feet.
    • Schaefer is projected rather than officially confirmed; a late scratch or line change invalidates the usage assumption.
  4. New York Islanders under 2.5 team goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Team Total SeamDown 103% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Team ladder mean: Dallas 3.25, New York 2.51; their 5.76 sum is within 0.12 of the game ladder’s 5.64.
    • Kalshi moneyline split is Dallas 62.5% / New York 37.5%; applied to 5.64 goals, New York projects near 2.11, about 0.40 below its ladder mean.
    • The New York over-2.5 rung is the liquid stale-ladder point: 44.5¢ mid, 1¢ spread, 63.43 contracts traded.
    • The ladder-derived split is an internal-consistency read, not an independent scoring model; the correction could be wrong.
  5. New York Islanders +2.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 73¢ on Polymarket US

    Fair DogDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dallas win-by-3+ modeled at 22%; fair Islanders +2.5 cover is 78%.
    • Sharp moneyline devigs to 63.1% Dallas; the 5.5 total anchors a low-scoring margin distribution.
    • Dallas and New York have season goal rates of 2.6/1.7 and 2.9/2.3; the modest favorite profile stays below the strongest-favorite base tail.
    • Jake Oettinger and Ilya Sorokin are expected, not confirmed; a late goalie change materially alters the distribution.
  6. New York Islanders +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 62¢ on Novig

    Dog CushionDown 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair is 66.0%: the 0.48 trailing-25 goal-difference gap falls below the 0.8 threshold, making 2+ favorite wins a 34% base rate.
    • Pinnacle's same-rung fair is 60.6%, a close cross-check rather than a 3-point disagreement.
    • Dallas favorite goalie Jake Oettinger is expected, not a known backup; the dog cushion remains playable at this price.
    • Dallas wins by 2 or more goals, the model's estimated 34% failure path.
Show all 13 picks
  1. New York Islanders @ Dallas Stars over 5.5 total
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Team goal rates imply 5.5 goals; adding 0.2 empty-net adjustment gives a 5.7-goal mean.
    • Positive team-score correlation lifts the model to roughly 51.5% for six or more goals.
    • Pinnacle is 5.5 at +102; DraftKings +102 and FanDuel -102 do not beat the exchange price.
    • Both goalies are expected rather than confirmed; Dallas starter Jake Oettinger remains explicitly unconfirmed.
  2. Bo Horvat over 2.5 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 3.4 shots per game across his last 10; over 2.5 in 7 of 10.
    • Over in 4 of his last 5, including 5 shots in the latest game.
    • 1,288 seconds average ice time over his last five games; confirmed participant.
    • Dallas allows only 21.9 shots per game, a materially difficult matchup.
  3. New York Islanders vs Dallas Stars first-period total under 0.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 16¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matchup rate estimate is 4.75 total goals from NYI/DAL scoring and prevention rates, below the 5.5 game line.
    • Nested first-period mean is about 1.36 using the 5.5 game total and NHL period-share baseline.
    • That implies roughly 25.6% for a scoreless first period versus a 16¢ contract price.
    • Both starting goalies are expected, not confirmed: Ilya Sorokin and Jake Oettinger.
  4. Dallas Stars to win
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US

    Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Poisson model: 2.63 Dallas goals versus 2.33 Islanders after 50% first-month shrinkage.
    • Model gives Dallas approximately 65.7% after a tie-to-overtime adjustment; 63¢ implies a 4.3% raw-price edge.
    • Pinnacle devigs to about 63.4% Dallas; the model's modest upward adjustment clears the 3% same-rung threshold.
    • Both goalies remain expected, not confirmed; the official preview lists alternate goalie possibilities.
  5. Jason Robertson over 3.0 shots on goal
    0%Push

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 3.8 shots per game over his last five, 26.7% above the 3.0 projection.
    • 33 shots over his last 10 games equals 3.3 per game, a 10% line divergence.
    • Robertson is confirmed in the live PrizePicks participant feed for this game.
    • The 3.0 line needs four or more shots to clear; three shots does not win the over.
  6. Ilya Sorokin over 23.5 total saves
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sorokin's 26.28 shots-against/60 is aligned with the 26.49 workload estimate; completeGamePct is 1.00, so no pull haircut.
    • The Islanders last played October 22, not yesterday; rest is known and does not trigger the back-to-back cap.
    • Sorokin's .9344 save percentage through 7 games is 2.94 points above .905; regression/noise leans against this over.
  7. Simon Holmstrom over 0.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Novig

    role repricingDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matias Maccelli is officially out; Holmstrom is projected on the first line and first power-play unit.
    • Holmstrom has 5 points in 10 games, including 2 points in his last 5; season rate is 0.50 points per game.
    • His season power-play time is 120.6 seconds per game, while his latest game reached 182 seconds; the new PP1 assignment is the opportunity change.
    • The line and PP1 assignment are projected rather than officially confirmed, so the added responsibility could disappear at warmup.

Questions

Who won Islanders vs. Stars?

The Stars won 6–3 on Sunday, Oct 25, 2026.

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