Mammoth vs. OilersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalRogers Place

Mammoth

4–2Final

Oilers

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	T
UTAH	1	2	1	4
EDM	0	1	1	2

Top model pick, graded

Won

Utah Mammoth to win 52¢

Why Fade the Goalie likes it: Edmonton officially starts non-incumbent Devon Levi; Tristan Jarry remains the incumbent in Edmonton's goalie plan.

Fade the GoalieDown 1% this season · 17 picks

Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 3-4 on this game · −5% return

Utah Mammoth to win2 models agree
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsFade the Goalie, Scratch Shift
Why 2 models like it
Fade the Goalie
- Edmonton officially starts non-incumbent Devon Levi; Tristan Jarry remains the incumbent in Edmonton's goalie plan.
- Levi's first four starts: 102 saves on 113 shots, 11 goals against; this is not an elite tandem buffer.
- Levi is 4-0 and just stopped 39 of 40; this specific start may beat the generic backup baseline.
Scratch Shift
- Hyman produced 14 goals and 27 5v5 points last season, averaging 15:19 at 5v5; his top-line replacement is weaker.
- Walman produced 5 goals and 15 5v5 points last season, averaging 16:31 at 5v5; Edmonton loses a real-minute defenseman.
- Edmonton still has McDavid, Draisaitl, Bouchard and a 4.83 goals-per-game start.
Game total over 6.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Backup BurstUp 91% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 7.1 goals, 0.6 above the 6.5 line after shrinking early-season scoring rates toward 2025-26.
- Devon Levi is confirmed and documented as Edmonton's new backup; the backup-goalie bump is central to the projection.
- Utah ranks 4th of 32 on the blended 15-game shots-per-game window at 29.6, supplying top-quintile event pressure.
- Levi is 4-0 with a .903 save percentage and three quality starts; a competent backup outing can strand the over.
Game goes to overtimeLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi
Overtime BookUp 3% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Ladder-implied overtime probability is 26.5% from EDM -105/UTA -115, the -1.5 ladder (+220/-270), and 6.5 total (-118/-102).
- Near-even moneyline and a 6.5 total support a tighter game; confirmed starters are Karel Vejmelka and Devon Levi.
- The 2025 overtime base rate was 24.8%; this matchup's closeness and goalie setup modestly lift it.
- The 2026-27 sample is only days old, so the estimate is heavily shrunk toward last season's rate.
Edmonton Oilers spread +1.5Favorite
−100%Lost
Taken at −235 on BetMGM
high-confidence main marketsDown 20% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Independent cover estimate: 74%; fair price approximately -285 versus BetMGM -235.
- Utah's recent 5v5 Corsi share averaged about 57.6% across its last five; Edmonton averaged about 45.0%.
- Utah is generating 31.3 shots per game versus Edmonton's 24.8 through the early season.
- Edmonton is 5-0-1 with 4.83 goals per game and has home ice.
Connor McDavid over 1.5 points
−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 17 points through six games (2.83 per game) is 89% above the 1.5-point threshold.
- Edmonton leads this matchup context at 4.83 goals per game; McDavid remains on the top projected line.
- NHL.com projects McDavid active, with PrizePicks pricing the over at -137.
- Utah allows only 2.71 goals per game and ranks among the better teams at suppressing shots.
Edmonton Oilers first-period spread −0.5
+178%Won
Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US
Square FrameUp 3% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 0.5 costs 37¢ and EDM -0.5 costs 36¢, implying a 27% first-period tie rate.
- That is 7.1 points below the 34.1% baseline and clears the brief's six-point trigger.
- The first-period 0.5-goal under is 17¢; the 27% tie estimate clears the zero-goal cross-check.
- A first-period tie loses the Oilers -0.5 position.

Questions

Who won Mammoth vs. Oilers?

The Mammoth won 4–2 on Thursday, Oct 15, 2026.