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Sharks vs. Maple LeafsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalScotiabank Arena
Sharks
1–3Final
Maple Leafs
Score by period
Team123T
SJ1001
TOR0123

Top model pick, graded

Won

Sergei Bobrovsky over 24.5 total saves −120

Crease WorkloadUp 16% return this season · 87 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 3-7 on this game · −38% return

  1. Sergei Bobrovsky over 24.5 total saves
    +83%Won

    Taken at −120 on DraftKings

    Crease WorkloadUp 25% last 7 days
  2. Goal in first 10 minutes
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi

    First TenDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Yaroslav Askarov owns an .8485 save percentage and 3.99 GAA through five starts.
    • Confirmed Sergei Bobrovsky is at .8907 save percentage and 3.29 GAA through six starts.
    • Toronto averages 28.0 shots and 3.22 goals per game; San Jose averages 27.75 shots and 2.75 goals.
    • Askarov and Bobrovsky samples are only five and six starts, so regression could erase the goalie edge.
  3. Jack Roslovic over 1.5 shots on goalFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −235 on BetMGM

    Frozen FrenzyDown 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Roslovic cleared 1.5 SOG in all nine current-season games; season total is 30 SOG.
    • Nylander is a game-time decision, and current PP units were not published in the NHL preview.
  4. Macklin Celebrini under 3.5 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Novig

    Hot Hand TaxUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle is -115/-115 on 3.5, a 50% de-vigged same-line reference; Novig is only 0.5 points away.
    • Celebrini averages 3.9 shots over his latest 10 games, inside the 3.5, 4.0 regression bucket.
    • Model fair: 60% base, +2 road adjustment, -3 because Toronto ranks sixth-highest in shots allowed (29.33/game).
    • The projected first line is confirmed, but tonight’s power-play unit is not published; a role increase would undermine regression.
  5. San Jose Sharks to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Scratch TapeDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The Polymarket US 3:24 PM snapshot showed no meaningful post-confirmation move from its 0.56/0.45 opening home/away price.
    • Usage-adjusted rebuild assigns roughly a 0.20-goal swing toward San Jose from Tanev's removal, lifting Sharks win probability to 48%.
    • William Nylander remained a game-time decision in the NHL.com report, so Toronto's final forward group is not fully certain.
  6. Sergei Bobrovsky over 24.5 saves
    +83%Won

    Taken at −120 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4 of Bobrovsky's 5 verified starts cleared 24.5 saves: 30, 30, 40 and 26.
    • His six-game 2026 season profile shows 30.08 shots against per 60 and an .8907 save percentage.
    • Toronto has allowed 29.3 shots per game; San Jose averages 27.8 shots, a 28.6-shot matchup baseline.
    • The exact-start sample is only five games; the miss was 21 saves.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Macklin Celebrini over 0.5 assists
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Celebrini has 8 assists in 6 games, averaging 1.33 against a 0.5 projection.
    • Toronto allows 29.22 shots per game; both teams are in a roughly 28-shot environment.
    • NHL's game preview projects Celebrini on San Jose's first line with no listed injury.
    • Six games is a small sample, and one-assist props remain high variance.
  2. Toronto Maple Leafs to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    Cohort CheckDown 26% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model makes Toronto 58.5% versus 55.0% Pinnacle devig: a 3.5-point independent edge.
    • Toronto averages 3.33 goals per game; San Jose allows 3.75 through October 17.
    • Sergei Bobrovsky and Yaroslav Askarov are confirmed starters; the goalie adjustment favors Toronto.
    • Only eight to nine team games inform the goal-rate model; early-season samples are noisy.
  3. San Jose Sharks moneyline (incl. OT)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 3.09-point mismatch clears the brief's 3-point gate in favor of the two-way Sharks contract.
    • H2H went past regulation in 4 of 8, but that thin rate is shrunk toward the 22% league baseline. Venue self-reference is the edge.
    • The 3.09-point raw mismatch may be overround or rounding, and shrinks to a marginal true-probability edge after normalization.
  4. San Jose Sharks–Toronto Maple Leafs first-period total under 1.5
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current team-rate blend implies about 6.58 game goals versus the 6.5 market rung.
    • Nesting the 1.76 league first-period mean to that game rate gives λ≈1.88.
    • Poisson 0-or-1 estimate is about 44%, roughly 4 points above the 40¢ Under price.
    • Toronto averages 3.22 goals and San Jose allows 3.63, creating real early-scoring upside.

Questions

Who won Sharks vs. Maple Leafs?

The Maple Leafs won 3-1 on Monday, Oct 19, 2026.

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