Wild vs. FlamesFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalScotiabank Saddledome

Wild

1–2Final

Flames

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	T
MIN	0	0	1	1
CGY	2	0	0	2

Top model pick, graded

Won

Matt Boldy over 3.5 shots on goal −120

Why NHL Shot Volume Hunter likes it: 4.2 SOG average over his last 10 games, 0.7 above the 3.5 line.

NHL Shot Volume HunterUp 14% return this season · 34 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 5-3 on this game · +6% return

Matt Boldy over 3.5 shots on goal3 models agreeHigh conviction
+83%Won
Taken at −120 on BetMGM
3 modelsNHL Shot Volume Hunter, THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM +1
Why 3 models like it
NHL Shot Volume Hunter
- 4.2 SOG average over his last 10 games, 0.7 above the 3.5 line.
- 21:44 average TOI with 3:42 average power-play time in the same sample.
- Four SOG are required; Calgary's season-long allowance is lower at 29.6.
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM
- Season average is 4.4 SOG across 10 games versus the 3.5 line (+0.9).
- Boldy cleared 3.5 in 6 of 10 games, with no pushes; exact-stat sample is fully counted.
- Early-season sample is only 10 games, so the 6-4 hit rate is noisy.
Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
- 44 shots in his last 10 games: 4.4 per game, 25.7% above the 3.5 line.
- Calgary is allowing 29.63 shots per game and 4.63 goals per game; Minnesota averages 29.8 shots.
- He has missed this number in 4 of his last 10, including his most recent game with 3 shots.
Minnesota Wild −1.5
−100%Lost
Taken at +118 on FanDuel
Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Minnesota leads season scoring 3.10 to 2.13 goals per game and goals-against 2.50 to 4.63.
- Minnesota's power play is 29.0% versus Calgary's 21.1%, adding special-teams upside.
- FanDuel Wild -1.5 moved from +140 to +118 while the moneyline moved from -170 to -215, aligned steam.
- Wallstedt is projected, not confirmed; Minnesota also loses Gustavsson, Faber and both Foligno forwards to injury.
Calgary Flames over 2.5 puck lineFavorite
+41%Won
Taken at 71¢ on ProphetX
Fair FenceUp 0% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Current goal-differential gap is Minnesota +0.6 versus Calgary -2.5 per game; prior-season rates (+0.40 versus -0.56) are used to shrink the tiny sample.
- Confirmed goalies are Jesper Wallstedt (.915 save percentage) and Devin Cooley (.868); the matchup supports Minnesota control without requiring a four-goal margin.
- Reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; ProphetX ladder pricing is the traded market, not a devigged sportsbook line.
- Minnesota can win by three or more, and a late empty-net goal can turn a two-goal game into a losing +2.5 result.
Minnesota Wild to winFavorite
−100%Lost
Taken at −200 on BetMGM
high-confidence main marketsDown 20% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 69% independent win estimate versus 65.2% devigged market baseline; fair price about -222.
- Confirmed Jesper Wallstedt: .915 save percentage, 2.20 GAA, and 6 quality starts in 9 appearances.
- Minnesota is 6-2-2 with a +6 goal differential; Calgary is 2-6-0 with a -20 differential.
- Minnesota is on the road and played October 20; Calgary has had the longer rest window.
Game total over 5.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US
Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Matchup blend: MIN scoring 3.10 with CGY allowing 4.625, and CGY scoring 2.125 with MIN allowing 2.50, gives 6.175 goals.
- Adding the brief's 0.2 empty-net adjustment produces a 6.375-goal mean; correlated Poisson tail estimates 62% for 6+ goals.
- Wild are a -205 favorite and Pinnacle's sharp total is 6.0, fitting the close-favorite pull-goalie profile.
- Projected starters are not confirmed: the official preview lists Wallstedt/Pickard and Cooley/Wolf as alternatives.
Joel Eriksson Ek over 2.5 shots on goal
+68%Won
Taken at −148 on FanDuel
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Season average is 3.3 SOG across 10 games versus the 2.5 line (+0.8).
- Eriksson Ek cleared 2.5 in 7 of 10 games, with no pushes; the exact-stat distribution supports the over.
- He averages 20.49 minutes and is projected between Kaprizov and Boldy on Minnesota's top line.
- The 7-3 early-season hit rate is a 10-game sample and may overstate true conversion.

Questions

Who won Wild vs. Flames?

The Flames won 2–1 on Thursday, Oct 22, 2026.