Maple Leafs vs. FlamesFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalScotiabank Saddledome

Maple Leafs

2–5Final

Flames

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	1	1	2
CGY	2	1	2	5

Top model pick, graded

Won

Calgary Flames to win 46¢

Why Scratch Tape likes it: Chris Tanev is confirmed out; his normal pre-injury workload was 19:31, about 6.5% of team skater-minutes.

Scratch TapeDown 25% this season · 34 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 3-6 on this game · −37% return

Game total over 7.5 goalsLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on Novig
Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Novig's total ladder is monotonic at 5.5 (64.0%), 6.5 (53.0%), and 7.5 (32.5%).
- Toronto's goalie is expected, not confirmed; a late change can materially alter the total.
Game goes to overtimeLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi
Overtime BookUp 3% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Ladder inputs: Toronto moneyline 55%, Calgary +1.5 65%, and over 6.5 goals 53%.
- Those prices describe a relatively tight, moderate-scoring matchup; my tied-after-60 estimate is 27%.
- The 27% estimate is only 2.2 points above the 2025 24.8% overtime base after hard seasonal shrinkage.
Game total under 6.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
Cohort CheckDown 26% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Independent goal-rate/goalie estimate is 6.25 goals, implying roughly 56% for under 6.5.
- Toronto averages 3.846 GF and Calgary allows 3.900; Calgary averages 2.300 GF and Toronto allows 3.154.
- Official preview names Bobrovsky (.895 SV%) and Cooley (.9125 SV%); the goalie mix trims the raw 6.60 cross-rate estimate.
- Toronto's 3.846-goal offense and Calgary's 3.900 goals allowed create real seven-goal blow-up risk.
Calgary Flames to win
+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US
Scratch TapeDown 35% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Chris Tanev is confirmed out; his normal pre-injury workload was 19:31, about 6.5% of team skater-minutes.
- John Tavares is confirmed out; his pre-injury workload was 17:19, about 5.8% of team skater-minutes.
- Usage proxy estimates roughly 0.20 Toronto offensive goals plus 0.20 Calgary scoring/defensive swing toward Calgary.
- NHL.com supplies the confirmation date but no exact posting time; the timing comparison is approximate, though the page was surfaced about five hours pregame.
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Calgary Flames first-period total over 2.5Long shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 29¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Full-game market centers near 6.5 goals; Toronto and Calgary rates imply about 6.6 combined goals.
- Nesting 6.5 with 2.06 second-period, 2.14 third-period, and 0.2 empty-net/OT goals gives a first-period mean near 2.1.
- The contract needs three goals before intermission; a scoreless or one-goal opening loses despite a strong full-game environment.
Devin Cooley over 25.5 total saves
−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 100 saves across Cooley’s last three starts: 33.3 per game, 30.6% above 25.5.
- Toronto averages 28.6 shots per game; the line is 10.8% below that attack baseline.
- Cooley is the confirmed Calgary starter, removing the largest availability uncertainty.
- Three-start recent form is a small sample and can regress sharply.

Show all 9 picks

Sergei Bobrovsky over 26.5 total saves
+98%Won
Taken at −102 on FanDuel
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
Devin Cooley over 25.5 saves
−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Novig
NHL Active v2Down 0% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- p source: Cooley exceeded 25.5 saves in 4 of 5 current-season starts; exact-line empirical, unvalidated conditional reference.
- Toronto averaged 29.8 shots in its last five versus 28.6 season; Calgary allowed 32.0 shots in its last five versus 30.3 season.
- Cooley is the confirmed Calgary starter; his five starts produced 143 saves on 157 shots (.911), with no pull or censored start observed.
- Only five current-season starts make the 4/5 exact-line rate highly noisy and not a calibrated forecast.
Calgary Flames +0.5 first periodFavorite
+54%Won
Taken at 65¢ on Polymarket US
Square FrameUp 3% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Toronto -0.5 and Calgary -0.5 are each 39c, implying a 22% first-period tie rate.
- The 22% tie estimate is 12.1 percentage points below the 34.1% historical first-period tie rate.
- Using the 34.1% tie baseline and the market's equal outright split gives Calgary +0.5 about a 67% win chance.
- The 34.1% tie rate is a league aggregate, not a matchup-specific estimate.

Questions

Who won Maple Leafs vs. Flames?

The Flames won 5–2 on Monday, Oct 26, 2026.