Jets vs. PanthersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAmerant Bank Arena

Jets

2–5Final

Panthers

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	T
WPG	0	1	1	2
FLA	1	2	2	5

Top model pick, graded

Won

Akira Schmid over 21.5 total saves −104

Crease WorkloadUp 16% return this season · 87 picks

Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 8-4 on this game · +15% return

Florida Panthers to winFavorite2 models agree
+49%Won
Taken at 67¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsThe Stanley Cup, BETALAB 6.0
Why 2 models like it
The Stanley Cup
- Florida leads season 5-on-5 possession: 55.3% Corsi and 53.8% Fenwick; Winnipeg is 48.6% and 47.9%.
- Florida averages 3.00 goals for and 2.85 against; Winnipeg averages 2.46 and 3.23 through 13 games.
- Winnipeg's Nico Daws is expected but not confirmed, so goalie identity and quality remain a material uncertainty.
BETALAB 6.0
- Florida owns a 57.7% score-close 5v5 shot share; Winnipeg is at 48.1%.
- Florida is 7-4-2 with 3.00 goals per game; Winnipeg is 4-6-3 with 2.46.
- Winnipeg's Nico Daws is only expected, not confirmed; a goalie change is load-bearing.
Akira Schmid over 21.5 total saves
+96%Won
Taken at −104 on FanDuel
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
Elias Salomonsson under 0.5 pointsFavorite
+49%Won
Taken at 67¢ on Novig
role repricingDown 18% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 0 points in his first 3 games; 5 points in 32 games last season.
- Josh Morrissey is on IR; Salomonsson is the projected replacement on Winnipeg's first power-play unit.
- Prior PP time was only 92, 132 seconds per game; his established 5v5 rate was 0.464 points/60.
- PP1 promotion can create materially more chances than the historical role; no exact new-minutes forecast is posted.
Winnipeg Jets over 1.5 puck line
−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US
Overtime TaxDown 31% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 55¢ Jets +1.5 versus 34¢ Jets moneyline; the Panthers -1.5 side is 46¢.
- Using the 40% midpoint of the stated 38, 43% one-goal rate, fair Jets +1.5 is about 60.2%.
- The full-game spread pair is clean: Jets +1.5 at 55¢ and Panthers -1.5 at 46¢, summing to 1.01.
- Nico Daws is expected but not officially confirmed for Winnipeg; Akira Schmid is confirmed for Florida.
Winnipeg Jets +2.5Favorite
−100%Lost
Taken at 69¢ on Polymarket US
Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 13-game rates shrunk toward a 3.16 league scoring average put Jets +2.5 near 77%.
- Pinnacle's same-game +1.5 rung makes Winnipeg roughly 54% fair; the +2.5 ladder price is a favorable derived rung.
- Nico Daws is only expected, not confirmed, and Winnipeg is on the second night of a back-to-back; half stake reflects the goalie risk.
Sam Reinhart over 2.5 shots on goal
+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 3.20 shots per game over his last five; 28% above the 2.5 line.
- Florida's lineup is confirmed and Reinhart is an active, confirmed participant.
- Winnipeg could suppress Florida's top-six deployment despite allowing elevated shots overall.

Show all 11 picks

Game total over 5.5
+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Novig
Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle devigged 6.5 total: 46.9% over and 53.1% under; Poisson fit gives 6.48 expected goals.
- The full Novig total ladder is monotonic from 3.7¢ at 2.5 to 93¢ at 9.5.
- Winnipeg starter Nico Daws is expected but unconfirmed; Florida starter Akira Schmid is confirmed.
Akira Schmid over 20.5 saves
+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Novig
NHL Active v2Down 0% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Schmid cleared 20.5 saves in 4/6 confirmed full starts; exact-line empirical rate, not calibrated.
- Winnipeg averages 26.5 shots; Florida allows 24.2, supporting roughly 25 expected shots.
- Only six starts: 4/6 is an unvalidated conditional reference, not a distributional forecast.
Florida Panthers −1.5
+114%Won
Taken at +114 on DraftKings
Always winsDown 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 73% of DraftKings puck-line tickets backed Florida, clearing the >65% public gate.
- Panthers -1.5 opened at +114 and remains +114 at DraftKings: static resistance.
- Florida is 3-2 in its last five; Winnipeg is 0-5, with Florida's goalie confirmed.
- The 73% ticket split comes from one public-splits source; sample and refresh timing are unknown.
Winnipeg Jets @ Florida Panthers game total under 6.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US
Scratch TapeDown 35% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Barkov is confirmed out after averaging 14.9 minutes (24.8% of a 60-minute game); estimated Florida scoring loss: 0.20 goals.
- Marchand is confirmed out after averaging 11.4 minutes (19.0%); estimated Florida scoring loss: 0.12 goals.
- Morrissey is confirmed out after averaging 20.1 minutes (33.5%); his defensive loss adds roughly 0.20 Florida goals, leaving a net total reduction near 0.12.
- Barkov and Marchand's samples are only two games each, so the usage-based goal estimates are noisy.
Winnipeg Jets two-way to winLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX
Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- ProphetX two-way Winnipeg implies 32.8%; its 60-minute Winnipeg +300 quote implies 25.0% regulation win probability.
- Tie +370 implies 21.3%; applying the mandated 22.0% matchup-shrunk past-regulation rate gives a reconciled Winnipeg probability of 36.0% (25.0% + half the tie mass).
- The 36.0% reconciliation exceeds the 32.8% two-way price by 3.2 points, clearing the three-point gate.
- The 3.2-point edge depends on the mandated 22.0% shrink; using the raw 21.3% tie implication produces only about a 2.9-point gap.

Questions

Who won Jets vs. Panthers?

The Panthers won 5–2 on Friday, Oct 30, 2026.