Rangers vs. Maple LeafsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalScotiabank Arena

Rangers

4–5Final

Maple Leafs

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	T
NYR	1	2	1	4
TOR	2	2	1	5

Top model pick, graded

Won

Over 7.5 total goals 29¢

Why Goal Ladder likes it: Poisson total fit: Pinnacle 6.5 (+103/-116) implies 6.53 expected goals and 33.2% fair for 8+ goals.

Goal LadderUp 49% return this season · 51 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 4-3 on this game · +23% return

New York Rangers to win2 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
2 modelsThe Stanley Cup, Cohort Check
Why 2 models like it
The Stanley Cup
- Estimated 55.5% win probability versus 52.4% break-even at FanDuel -110.
- Rangers goal baseline: 3.00 GF and 2.18 GA per game; Toronto: 3.45 GF and 3.18 GA.
- Toronto has home ice and the slightly better combined 5-on-5 possession proxy: 46.3% versus New York’s 45.7%.
Cohort Check
- NYR score 3.00 goals/game and allow 2.182; Toronto scores 3.455 and allows 3.182 through 11 games.
- Confirmed starters favor NYR: Dylan Garand .929 save percentage versus Sergei Bobrovsky .902.
- Toronto's 3.455 goals/game is the stronger offense, and home ice narrows the gap.
Over 7.5 total goalsLong shot
+245%Won
Taken at 29¢ on Novig
Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Poisson total fit: Pinnacle 6.5 (+103/-116) implies 6.53 expected goals and 33.2% fair for 8+ goals.
- The full Novig total ladder is monotonic from 3.5 through 9.5, supporting internal coherence.
- Both starting goalies remain unconfirmed roughly six hours before puck drop; goalie news can materially move the total.
Sergei Bobrovsky under 24.5 saves
+91%Won
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Toronto's confirmed starter has a .9019 save percentage over 10 appearances; 24.5 saves requires 25 saves.
- New York averages 24.1 shots on goal across 11 games; 7 of 11 were 24 or fewer.
- Bobrovsky's projected workload is about 21.7 saves from the Rangers' season shot rate and his current save rate.
- Bobrovsky cleared 24.5 saves in 5 of 7 recorded starts; the goalie-start sample is small.
William Nylander over 2.5 shots on goal
−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 33 shots in 11 games implies 3.0 per game, 20% above the 2.5 line.
- Recent 10-game shot average is reported at 2.8, still 12% above the line.
- Toronto averages 27.8 shots per game and Nylander is projected on the second line.
- Shot samples are small early in the season and game-level variance is high.
Dylan Garand over 25.5 total saves
+91%Won
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5Favorite
+37%Won
Taken at −270 on DraftKings
high-confidence main marketsDown 20% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Toronto allows 3.18 goals/game, but the +1.5 cushion protects against a close Rangers road win.
- Toronto averages 3.45 goals and 27.8 shots per game at this early-season checkpoint.
- Confirmed goalies are Sergei Bobrovsky for Toronto and Dylan Garand for New York; Toronto's power play is 27.5%.
- New York is 7-3-1 with a 2.18 goals-against average, materially stronger than Toronto's 5-4-2 and 3.18 GA/G.

Questions

Who won Rangers vs. Maple Leafs?

The Maple Leafs won 5–4 on Thursday, Oct 22, 2026.