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Avalanche vs. PredatorsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalBridgestone Arena
Avalanche
2–6Final
Predators
Score by period
Team123T
COL0112
NSH2316

Top model pick, graded

Won

Scott Wedgewood over 21.5 total saves −110

Why Crease Workload likes it: Nashville averaged 27.8 shots over its last five completed games, above the prior-season input used in the gate.

Crease WorkloadUp 16% return this season · 87 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-4 on this game · +42% return

  1. Nashville Predators +1.52 models agree
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Novig

    2 modelsDog Cushion, Overtime Tax
    Why 2 models like it
    Dog Cushion
    • Pinnacle same-line de-vigged fair is 52.6%; disagreement is only 0.9 points, below the 3-point pass trigger.
    • Trailing-25 goal-difference gap is 0.92 (Colorado +0.88, Nashville -0.04), the 0.8, 1.2 base-rate band.
    • Colorado's goalie is not confirmed; NHL.com listed Scott Wedgewood and Mackenzie Blackwood without naming the starter.
    Overtime Tax
    • Moneyline pair implies Colorado 68.3% and Nashville 31.7% after removing the 1¢ spread.
    • Using the strongest-favorite baseline, Colorado by 2+ is about 43%; exact-one wins imply roughly 25.3%.
    • Both projected goalies are only expected, not confirmed: Scott Wedgewood and Justus Annunen.
  2. Scott Wedgewood over 21.5 total saves
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Crease WorkloadUp 25% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nashville averaged 27.8 shots over its last five completed games, above the prior-season input used in the gate.
    • Partial coverage: Colorado has 11 games, Nashville 10, and Wedgewood only three starts; team rates are prior-season inputs.
  3. Over 5.5 total goals
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi

    Empty Net LedgerUp 41% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Hard-shrunk attack rates project roughly 3.80 Colorado goals and 2.88 Nashville goals before the empty-net adjustment.
    • Projected total is approximately 6.89 goals including the 0.21-goal empty-net term; modeled over probability is about 69%.
    • Pinnacle's sharp reference total is 6.5, clearing the brief's 6.0 minimum; Colorado is a clear -234 favorite.
    • Both projected goalies, Scott Wedgewood and Justus Annunen, remain expected rather than officially confirmed.
  4. Game goes to overtimeLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 20¢ on Kalshi

    Overtime BookUp 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Three ladder prices used: Pinnacle COL -234 / NSH +206; NSH +1.5 -121 / COL -1.5 +107; total 6.5 over -107 / under -105.
    • Current-season games are 23.3% overtime (42 of 180), while 2025-26 was 25.0%; hard shrink toward the prior season supports a 24.5% baseline before the matchup adjustment.
    • Both projected goalies are only expected: Scott Wedgewood for Colorado and Justus Annunen for Nashville, not officially confirmed.
  5. Game total over 6.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Colorado averages 4.27 goals; Nashville allows 3.30, supporting a 6.5+ scoring baseline.
    • Annunen is expected for Nashville with .8065 save percentage and 6.00 GAA in five appearances.
    • Both goalies remain expected rather than confirmed; a late starter change is load-bearing.
  6. Nathan MacKinnon over 4.0 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 23 shots in his last 5 games: 4.6 per game, 15% above the PrizePicks line.
    • MacKinnon is projected on Colorado's top line with Lehkonen and Necas.
    • PrizePicks -137 implies roughly 57.8%; my estimate is modestly higher.
    • Colorado's skater lineup remains projected rather than officially confirmed.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Over 7.5 total goalsLong shot
    +223%Won

    Taken at 31¢ on Novig

    Goal LadderUp 67% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Poisson fit to current Pinnacle moneyline and 6.5 total gives 6.63 expected goals.
    • The total ladder is monotonic, and 7.5 is one rung above the 6.5 main line.
    • Both projected goalies are unconfirmed; Scott Wedgewood and Justus Annunen remain expected, so this is half size.
  2. Colorado Avalanche to winFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 68¢ on Novig

    NHL Active v2Down 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Colorado averages 30.0 shots for and 27.8 against; Nashville averages 24.8 for and 30.2 against.
    • Expected Scott Wedgewood has a .912 save percentage and 2 quality starts in 3; expected Justus Annunen is at .806 and 0 quality starts in 1.
    • Both goalies are expected rather than confirmed, and the NHL preview listed Mackenzie Blackwood while the current goalie feed listed Justus Annunen.
  3. Nashville Predators two-way to winLong shot
    +213%Won

    Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX

    Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 days
  4. Colorado–Nashville first-period total under 1.5 goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Market game-total midpoint is 6.5; team scoring/allowing rates imply about 6.58 total goals.
    • Nesting the 1.76 first-period baseline into that total gives a first-period mean near 1.88.
    • Poisson nesting puts 0, 1 first-period goals near 44%, roughly 4 points above the 40¢ Under price.
    • Both Scott Wedgewood and Justus Annunen are expected, not confirmed starters.

Questions

Who won Avalanche vs. Predators?

The Predators won 6-2 on Sunday, Oct 25, 2026.

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