Blackhawks vs. Red WingsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalLittle Caesars Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| DET | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Top model pick, graded
WonEmmitt Finnie over 0.5 points 52¢
Why role repricing likes it: Dylan Larkin, Marco Kasper and Mason Appleton are out; Finnie is the expected first-line center and first-unit PP replacement.
role repricingDown 8% this season · 32 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-5 on this game · −6% return
- Chicago Blackhawks to win−100%Lost
Taken at +136 on DraftKings
3 modelsAlways wins, Morning Puck +1Why 3 models like it
Always wins- 78% of moneyline tickets backed Detroit, while the price resisted from Red Wings -180 to -162.
- Detroit is without Dylan Larkin; confirmed goalie John Gibson improves Chicago’s upset path but does not erase the price.
- Chicago is 4-8 and remains the road underdog against a 5-4-3 Detroit team.
Morning Puck- Poisson blend: Chicago win probability 45% after shrinking 12-game attack/defense rates toward the 3.121 league scoring average.
- Detroit is without confirmed-out top-line center Dylan Larkin; Chicago projects Spencer Knight, whose .897 save rate exceeds John Gibson's .867.
- Knight is expected, not officially confirmed, so this is half-size; a late goalie change materially shifts the model.
Scratch Shift- Dylan Larkin is confirmed out; Detroit loses 2 of 31 goals, 32 of roughly 357 shots, and 21:41 per game.
- Bowen Byram is also confirmed out for Chicago, but his current share is 0 of 26 goals and 5 of roughly 262 shots despite 24:42 per game.
- Chicago's own goalie Spencer Knight is expected, not confirmed, and Alex Vlasic remains a game-time decision.
- Emmitt Finnie over 0.5 points+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Novig
role repricingDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dylan Larkin, Marco Kasper and Mason Appleton are out; Finnie is the expected first-line center and first-unit PP replacement.
- Finnie has 7 points in 12 games; he cleared 0.5 points in 7 of those 12 games.
- His current PP share is 28.3%, with 3.04 PP points/60; the expected PP1 promotion is a material opportunity gain.
- The Finnie line and PP1 assignment remain expected, not official; the new workload is not quantified.
- Detroit Red Wings −1.5+178%Won
Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US
Overtime TaxDown 31% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 43% fair probability: Detroit's 58.4% devigged moneyline minus the 15.4% one-goal-win remainder.
- The 1.2-goal trailing-form gap reaches the brief's strongest-favorite bucket, where 2+ goal wins occur about 43%.
- The full-game pair is clean: Chicago +1.5 at 65¢ and Detroit -1.5 at 36¢ sum to 101¢.
- Detroit must win by 2+; a regulation one-goal win, overtime win, or shootout win loses this ticket.
- Over 5.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US
Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model mean 6.03 goals: blended current scoring/allowance rates plus the brief's +0.20 empty-net adjustment.
- Positive goal correlation lifts the upper tail; estimated P(6+ goals) is 57%.
- Pinnacle's -153 Detroit favorite and +163 puck-line price fit a close-favorite profile, not the excluded -300 blowout.
- Chicago's Spencer Knight projection is expected rather than officially confirmed; a late goalie change could move the total.
- Game total under 6.5 goals+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season offense/defense blend points to roughly 5.8 total goals; Chicago averages only 2.17 goals and 21.8 shots per game.
- The 6.5 alternate gives protection over the heavily priced 5.5 main total; sportsbook totals moved from 6/6.5 toward 5.5.
- Research quality: 78/100; current price, full ladder, form, goalie, lineup, injury, and movement layers were checked.
- Detroit's last 10 games averaged 6.3 combined goals, and a high-event game can clear 7 despite the baseline.
- Andrew Copp over 1.5 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Copp has cleared 1.5 shots on goal in five straight home games.
- Detroit averages 29.8 shots per game; Chicago allows 30.3 shots against per game.
- Detroit's lineup is confirmed, and Copp is listed as a current participant for this game.
- Five straight home overs is a small, location-specific sample.
Show all 7 picks
- CHI @ DET game total under 5.5+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Novig
NHL Active v2Down 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season scoring baseline is 4.92 combined goals: Chicago 2.17 GF/game and Detroit 2.75.
- This is a price-only edge using Pinnacle's same-line devigged reference, not an independent calibrated total model.
Questions
Who won Blackhawks vs. Red Wings?
The Red Wings won 4–1 on Thursday, Oct 29, 2026.