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Jets vs. LightningFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalBenchmark International Arena
Jets
4–6Final
Lightning
Score by period
Team123T
WPG1034
TB1416

Top model pick, graded

Won

Winnipeg Jets +2.5 69¢

Why Goal Ladder likes it: Novig spread ladder is monotonic around the rung: Winnipeg +1.5 at 56c, +2.5 at 68.5c, +3.5 at 88c.

Goal LadderUp 49% return this season · 51 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-10 on this game · −33% return

  1. Winnipeg Jets +1.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    3 modelsCohort Check, Overtime Tax +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Cohort Check
    • Own goal-rate and confirmed-starter estimate: Jets +1.5 about 59%, 3.6 points above the sharp 55.4% fair reference.
    • Confirmed Stuart Skinner is at .911 save percentage this season versus Andrei Vasilevskiy at .884.
    • Winnipeg is 0-5 recently and is without Josh Morrissey, a major lineup loss.
    Overtime Tax
    • 40.1% of 2026-27 NHL finals in the warehouse were decided by one goal (81 of 202).
    • Polymarket US moneyline devigs to Jets 33.7% and Tampa 66.3%; allocating one-goal outcomes by that split gives Tampa exactly-one about 26.6%.
    • The 40.1% one-goal estimate is league-wide, not team-specific, and rests on 202 completed games.
    high-confidence main markets
    • Confirmed Stuart Skinner and Andrei Vasilevskiy starts remove the primary personnel uncertainty.
    • Winnipeg posted 60.0% and 51.4% five-on-five Corsi in its last two games despite losing both.
    • Josh Morrissey is on IR and Vladislav Namestnikov is also out; Winnipeg's defensive depth is thinner.
  2. Winnipeg Jets +2.5Favorite
    +45%Won

    Taken at 69¢ on Novig

    Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Novig spread ladder is monotonic around the rung: Winnipeg +1.5 at 56c, +2.5 at 68.5c, +3.5 at 88c.
    • Both projected starters are marked confirmed live: Stuart Skinner for Winnipeg and Andrei Vasilevskiy for Tampa Bay.
    • Tampa's favorite status and empty-net scoring can turn a two-goal Winnipeg loss into a three-goal loss.
  3. Game total over 5.5
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Novig

    Second String ShootoutUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle 6.0 at -109/-103 de-vigs to 50.7% over; Poisson fit implies a 6.2-goal mean.
    • Skinner is confirmed and NHL identifies him as Hellebuyck's backup; Vasilevskiy is also confirmed.
    • Backup adjustment adds 0.30 goals, producing a 6.5 mean and 63.1% fair over 5.5.
    • The over loses at five goals or fewer despite the backup adjustment.
  4. Winnipeg Jets +3.5Favorite
    +19%Won

    Taken at 84¢ on Polymarket US

    Rung SeamDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The strongest-favorite baseline puts 4+ wins near 13%, implying roughly 87% for Jets +3.5; 0.84 leaves a small cushion.
    • The full-game ladder is monotone, but the 3.5 rung implies about 16-17% for a 4+ Tampa win versus the 13% base-rate tail.
    • Confirmed goalies are Stuart Skinner for Winnipeg and Andrei Vasilevskiy for Tampa Bay; Tampa's recent scoring-margin gap supports treating it as the strongest side.
    • Tampa's current form is materially better: +0.6 last-five margin versus Winnipeg at -1.6, so the 4+ margin tail may be higher than baseline.
  5. Winnipeg Jets +1.5 spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Novig

    Dog CushionDown 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Trailing-25 averages: Tampa Bay -0.08 goal difference, Winnipeg -0.64; gap is 0.56, below 0.8.
    • Brief base rate at a sub-0.8 gap gives Tampa Bay about 34% to win by 2+, implying 66% Winnipeg +1.5 cover.
    • Pinnacle does not confirm the model edge; this position rests on a coarse base-rate bucket.
  6. Nikita Kucherov under 2.5 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +130 on FanDuel

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7 of 11 current-season games stayed under 2.5 SOG; no pushes; raw hit rate 63.6%.
    • Four of Kucherov's last six games stayed under 2.5 SOG.
    • FanDuel +130 has a 43.5% break-even rate; adjusted own win probability is 57%.
    • The PP1/top-unit assignment is projected rather than an official skater-line confirmation.
Show all 13 picks
  1. Game first-period total under 1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Team-rate blend projects 5.94 total goals: WPG 2.33 GF/3.00 GA, TBL 3.45 GF/3.09 GA.
    • Nesting 5.94 around 2.06 second-period, 2.14 third-period and 0.20 empty-net/OT goals gives first-period mean 1.54.
    • The team-rate sample is only 11, 12 games, so the 5.94-goal blend is noisy.
  2. Winnipeg Jets to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US

    Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Poisson model: Winnipeg 2.7 projected goals, Tampa Bay 3.2 after first-month shrink and goalie adjustments.
    • Stuart Skinner is confirmed at .911 save percentage; Andrei Vasilevskiy is confirmed at .884.
    • Polymarket US is superior to the best US sportsbook price, which is Winnipeg +180.
    • Winnipeg is 4-8-0 with 2.33 goals per game; Tampa Bay is 7-3-1 with 3.46 goals per game.
  3. Game total under 6.5 goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • BETALAB estimate is 60.5% (56, 64% uncertainty band); fair price is 60.5¢.
    • Season scoring inputs imply roughly 5.9 goals: Tampa 3.455 GF/3.091 GA, Winnipeg 2.333 GF/3.000 GA; goalies are confirmed.
    • Tampa's 55.4% five-on-five SAT share and 30.45 shots per game can create a high-event territorial script.
  4. Andrei Vasilevskiy over 22.5 total saves
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • No pull haircut: Tampa is -205; completeGamePct is 1.00.
    • Most likely loss: Tampa controls possession and Winnipeg finishes with 22 or fewer shots on goal.
  5. Game total over 7.5Long shot
    +285%Won

    Taken at 26¢ on Novig

    Second String ShootoutUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The same Pinnacle-fitted 6.2 mean plus the 0.30-goal backup shift gives a 6.5-goal mean.
    • The full Novig ladder is monotonic from 5.5 through 9.5, passing the dead-quote screen.
    • This is a high-variance tail: seven goals or fewer loses, even with Skinner in net.
  6. Andrei Vasilevskiy under 22.5 saves
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Novig

    NHL Active v2Down 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Vasilevskiy stayed under 22.5 saves in 6 of 8 current-season full starts.
    • He has 166 saves on 188 shots (.883 save percentage) in those eight starts.
    • Tampa Bay allows 24.5 shots per game season-long and 25.4 over its last five.
    • The 6-of-8 rate is a small, uncalibrated conditional empirical reference, not a fitted distribution.
  7. Elias Salomonsson over 0.5 pointsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi

    role repricingDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Josh Morrissey is on IR; Elias Salomonsson is the expected replacement on Winnipeg's 1st power-play unit.
    • Salomonsson's current PP usage is 112 seconds per game and 32.3% PP-time share across two games.
    • Tampa Bay's current penalty kill is 66.7%; Winnipeg's power play has scored at an 18.2% rate.
    • The PP1 assignment is expected, not officially confirmed; he could receive less special-teams time.

Questions

Who won Jets vs. Lightning?

The Lightning won 6–4 on Thursday, Oct 29, 2026.

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