Mammoth vs. PenguinsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalPPG Paints Arena

Mammoth

4–3Final

Penguins

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
UTAH	2	0	1	1	4
PIT	0	1	2	0	3

Top model pick, graded

Won

Pittsburgh Penguins +2.5 78¢

Why Fair Dog likes it: Model estimates Utah win by 2+ at 31% and by 3+ at 18%, making Pittsburgh +2.5 fair at 82%.

Fair DogDown 11% this season · 41 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 3-2 on this game · −8% return

Tommy Novak over 0.5 points
−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
role repricingDown 18% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Bryan Rust is on injured reserve; Novak is assigned to Pittsburgh's first line and projected first power-play unit.
- Novak has 8 points in 12 games, including 4 power-play points and 0.667 points per game.
- His last-five power-play ice-time average is 1:37; the PP1 assignment offers a documented opportunity increase.
- The PP1 assignment is projected rather than officially confirmed; coach deployment could revert during the game.
Pittsburgh Penguins +2.5Favorite
+28%Won
Taken at 78¢ on Polymarket US
Fair DogDown 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model estimates Utah win by 2+ at 31% and by 3+ at 18%, making Pittsburgh +2.5 fair at 82%.
- Pittsburgh's current goal differential is 0.00 per game versus Utah's +0.31; the matchup is not a strongest-side blowout profile.
- Sharp anchor is Utah -128 with a 6.5-goal total; the moneyline and total constrain the modeled margin tail.
- Utah has reached a 3-goal margin in 23.1% of its 13 games, so the modeled blowout tail remains material.
Erik Karlsson under 2.5 shots on goalFavorite
+53%Won
Taken at −190 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 20 shots in 12 games: 1.67 per game and under 2.5 in 10 of 12.
- 1.70 shots per game, under in 8 of 10; L5: 1.80, under in 4 of 5.
- Karlsson's workload is stable at 24.2 minutes per game over his last five.
- Early-season 12-game sample is the main uncertainty; two games cleared 2.5.
Utah Mammoth to win
+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Utah leads season 5v5 Corsi 56.1% to Pittsburgh's 52.0% and shots 30.2 to 27.6 per game.
- Utah's 34.8% power play is materially better than Pittsburgh's 20.6%; Utah is 8-5 versus Pittsburgh 5-6-1.
- Utah goalie Karel Vejmelka is expected but still unconfirmed; Pittsburgh's Arturs Silovs is confirmed.
Pittsburgh Penguins to win
−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on Novig
NHL Active v2Down 0% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pittsburgh confirmed Arturs Silovs: 8 starts, .890 save percentage, 4 quality starts in 2026.
- Pittsburgh's 27.3 shots-against per game is a manageable defensive baseline against Utah's 30.2 shots for.
- Pittsburgh has won its last two; Utah enters after a 1-3 loss, while the market still prices Utah as the favorite.
- Utah starter Karel Vejmelka remains expected and unconfirmed at 3:10pm; a replacement would materially change the goalie read.

Questions

Who won Mammoth vs. Penguins?

The Mammoth won 4–3 on Thursday, Oct 29, 2026.