Wild vs. CanucksFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalRogers Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| VAN | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame over 5.5 total goals 63¢
Why Goal Ladder likes it: Novig's total ladder is monotonic from 4.5 through 9.5, supporting the adjacent-rung read.
Goal LadderUp 49% return this season · 51 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-4 on this game · −13% return
- Matt Boldy over 3.5 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Novig
2 modelsNHL Active v2, Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixWhy 2 models like it
NHL Active v2- Boldy cleared 3.5 SOG in 8 of 12 current-season games; the last five are 4 of 5.
- He has 56 SOG on 104 individual attempts (53.8%) with 21:38 season-average TOI and 22:18 over the last five.
- Boldy's current line and PP1 assignment are expected rather than confirmed; a late scratch or role change invalidates the workload read.
Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix- 4.7 SOG/game over his last 10 (47 total), 34% above the 3.5 line.
- 4.7 SOG/game across 12 current-season games, also 34% above the line.
- Early-season samples are only 10-12 games, and the opponent five-game defensive sample is thin.
- Game over 5.5 total goals+59%Won
Taken at 63¢ on Novig
Goal LadderUp 67% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Novig's total ladder is monotonic from 4.5 through 9.5, supporting the adjacent-rung read.
- Vancouver goalie Leevi Merilainen is expected, not confirmed; this is reduced to 0.5u.
- Leevi Merilainen over 26.5 total saves+98%Won
Taken at −102 on FanDuel
Crease WorkloadUp 25% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Posted FanDuel saves line confirms Merilainen as Vancouver's starter for this market.
- Minnesota PP 23.2% versus Vancouver PK 76.4% supports additional penalty-kill workload; no adjustment applied.
- Merilainen's 35.35 shots-against/60 differs from the blend by 4.54, outside the sanity band and lowering conviction.
- Quinn Hughes over 2.5 shots on goal+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Novig
role repricingDown 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Brock Faber is on IR after skull surgery; Hughes is listed on Minnesota's expected first power-play unit.
- Hughes has 34 shots in 12 games, averaging 2.83, and cleared 2.5 in 7 of those 12.
- The PP1 assignment is projected, not officially confirmed; a discrete before/after minutes increase is not verified.
- Minnesota Wild–Vancouver Canucks over 0.5 first-period goals+20%Won
Taken at 83¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 31% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Team-rate estimate is 6.50 total goals: MIN 3.88 expected, VAN 2.63 expected.
- Both sides are quoted at 0.83/0.18, and the first-period ladder is monotone.
- 0 first period loses; the model still assigns 12.2% to a shutout.
- Vancouver Canucks to win−100%Lost
Taken at +170 on DraftKings
Crease WorkloadUp 25% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Calvin Pickard is the posted Minnesota starter after its 10/24 game at Seattle.
- Pickard has 1 of Minnesota's 12 starts (8.3%); Jesper Wallstedt has 11, and Pickard's .800 save rate trails Wallstedt's .9184 by .1184.
- Vancouver is home and +170 at DraftKings; Pinnacle's same-line -191/+170 market devigs Vancouver to 36.1%.
- Vancouver is 2-9-1 with 4.67 goals allowed per game in the current sample; Minnesota is 7-3-2.
Show all 7 picks
- Game total over 6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Empty Net OverDown 25% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- blended current and 2025-26 attack-defense rates produce a 6.45-goal base.
- Minnesota is a -190 favourite; recent margins support a competitive one-goal lead script.
- Empty-net adjustment of +0.40 raises projection to 6.85, 0.35 above the 6.5 line.
- Vancouver’s goalie remains expected, not confirmed; the NHL preview does not explicitly name Meriläinen.
Questions
Who won Wild vs. Canucks?
The Wild won 4-2 on Sunday, Oct 25, 2026.