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Canadiens vs. StarsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAmerican Airlines Center
Canadiens
5–2Final
Stars
Score by period
Team123T
MTL3115
DAL1102

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 5.5 55¢

Why Second String Shootout likes it: 58.4 blended Dallas shot attempts clears the top-two-fifths trigger (12th/13th of 32 by recent attempts).

Second String ShootoutUp 19% return this season · 27 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 7-8 on this game · −14% return

  1. Dallas Stars to win4 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −175 on DraftKings

    4 modelsThe Stanley Cup, Cohort Check +2
    Why 4 models like it
    The Stanley Cup
    • Confirmed Jake Oettinger: .9293 save%, .9155 even-strength save%, 55.6% quality starts.
    • Dallas allows 2.00 goals per game versus Montréal's 3.00 through 12 games.
    • Small 12-game sample; Montréal has played four games in seven days versus Dallas's three, but both have two days' rest and no back-to-back.
    Cohort Check
    • Baseline rates imply Dallas 2.88 goals versus Montréal 2.63 before goalie adjustment.
    • Confirmed Jake Oettinger owns a .929 save percentage; confirmed Jakub Dobes is at .847.
    • The team-rate sample is only 12 games, so the scoring baseline is noisy.
    Scratch Tape
    • Nick Suzuki is confirmed out; he averaged 21:47/game (36.3% of regulation-clock usage) and 12 points in 9 games.
    • Ivan Demidov is also out at 15:37/game; Montreal loses two meaningful offensive roles.
    • Dallas also loses Duchene and Lindell, partially offsetting Montreal's offensive absences.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • Jake Oettinger: .929 save percentage, 1.43 GAA; confirmed starter Jakub Dobes: .847, 4.47 GAA.
    • Dallas allows 2.08 goals and 22.17 shots per game; Montréal allows 3.00 goals and 28.25 shots.
    • Both teams are 4-1 over their last five; Montréal's recent +1.2 goal margin slightly exceeds Dallas's +1.0.
  2. Dallas Stars −1.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsSpare Crease Spread, Backup Tax
    Why 2 models like it
    Spare Crease Spread
    • Projection: Dallas covers by 2+ in 43% of outcomes, implying a 43¢ fair price.
    • Montréal's confirmed non-primary starter Jakub Dobes has a 4.47 GAA and .847 save percentage in five starts.
    • Montréal is 7-3-2 with 3.17 goals per game, so its offense can erase the goalie gap.
    Backup Tax
    • Poisson fit to live Pinnacle -173/+155 and 6-goal total gives Dallas -1.5 fair at 50.1% after adding 0.30 goals for the backup-goalie effect.
    • Pinnacle's live same-line Dallas -1.5 price is +148, only 39.1% de-vigged fair, so the reference has not moved for the goalie news.
    • Dallas must win by at least two; a one-goal win loses despite the expected goalie edge.
  3. Montréal Canadiens +1.52 models agree
    +63%Won

    Taken at −160 on FanDuel

    2 modelshigh-confidence main markets, Dog Cushion
    Why 2 models like it
    high-confidence main markets
    • Confirmed goalies and official lineups remove the largest pregame personnel uncertainty.
    • Montréal averages 3.17 goals and 28.17 shots per game through 12; Dallas allows 22.17 shots.
    • Jake Oettinger owns a .929 season save rate versus Jakub Dobes at .847.
    Dog Cushion
    • Trailing-25 average goal difference: Dallas +0.28, Montréal 0.00; gap 0.28 is below the 0.8 threshold.
    • Base-rate model makes +1.5 dog cover fair at 66¢ when the favorite gap is under 0.8.
    • The model's under-0.8 bucket is broad, and the 25-game sample blends early 2026-27 with late 2025-26 results.
  4. Game total over 5.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Novig

    Second String ShootoutUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 58.4 blended Dallas shot attempts clears the top-two-fifths trigger (12th/13th of 32 by recent attempts).
    • Jakub Dobes is confirmed; Montreal's primary Jacob Fowler has 7 starts versus Dobes's 5.
    • Dobes owns a .847 save percentage this season versus Fowler's .942, supporting the +0.30-goal backup adjustment.
    • Jake Oettinger is confirmed and has a .929 season save percentage, which can suppress Montreal's contribution.
  5. Game total over 5.5 goals
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Empty Net LedgerUp 41% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 26.9 Dallas and 26.5 Montréal projected shots after hard shrink toward 2025 rates.
    • Shrunk finishing plus confirmed goalies projects roughly 3.4 Dallas and 3.2 Montréal goals before empty-net scoring.
    • Dallas is the favorite by approximately 0.2 expected goals with Jake Oettinger confirmed against Jakub Dobes.
    • The 2026 sample is only 12 games, so the hard-shrunk finishing and shot rates remain uncertain.
  6. Jason Robertson no 1+ goal
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

    Hot Hand CoolerDown 49% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 36 shots in his last 10 games (3.6 per game) qualifies the hot-shot candidate.
    • Season rate is 3.25 shots; shrinking recent and season rates gives about 3.5 expected shots.
    • Season shooting is 12.8%; 27.5-foot shots and Jake Oettinger's .929 save rate lower the goal projection.
    • Robertson is projected on Dallas's top power-play unit, creating extra scoring opportunity.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Juraj Slafkovsky over 1.5 shots on goalFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 66¢ on Novig

    Frozen FrenzyDown 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected mean 2.57 SOG: 2.70 recency baseline × 0.95 Dallas factor; 1.07-shot cushion.
    • Negative-binomial calculation gives 68.3% over probability; a 10% mean haircut still gives 63.4%.
    • Slafkovsky cleared 1.5 SOG in 8 of his last 10; current-season average is 2.67 through 12 games.
    • Lines are expected rather than official; a late scratch or role change invalidates the projection.
  2. Game over 5.5 total goals
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Team goal rates total 5.917; adding the brief's 0.2 empty-net adjustment gives a 6.117-goal mean.
    • Dallas is -166 at Pinnacle with a 6.0 sharp total, meeting the favorite and line gates without a -300 blowout profile.
    • The 12-game scoring sample is thin, and raw team rates do not fully adjust for confirmed Oettinger and Dobes.
  3. Game first-period total under 1.5 goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current team rates imply a 5.50-goal full-game mean: (3.167 + 2.083 + 2.750 + 3.000) / 2.
    • Nesting that total to 1.76/2.06/2.14 period scoring plus ~0.2 late-game adjustment gives a first-period mean of about 1.57.
    • The first-period ladder is clean and monotone: over prices are 85¢, 54¢, 27¢, and 4¢ at 0.5 through 3.5.
    • This uses league period baselines rather than a large matchup-specific first-period sample.
  4. Montréal Canadiens moneyline +156
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX

    Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 39.1% implied by Montréal's +156 two-way quote versus a 42.6% reconstruction: 3.6-point venue gap.
    • Montréal's 60-minute +230 implies 30.3%; three of 10 prior Canadiens-Stars meetings went past regulation.
    • The 10-game matchup sample is thin; the 24.7% shrinkage estimate is materially uncertain.

Questions

Who won Canadiens vs. Stars?

The Canadiens won 5–2 on Thursday, Oct 29, 2026.

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