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Bruins vs. BluesFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalEnterprise Center
Bruins
1–4Final
Blues
Score by period
Team123T
BOS1001
STL1214

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total under 6.5 57¢

Why Goal Ladder likes it: 60.6% model fair from a Poisson fit to Pinnacle's de-vigged moneyline and 6.0-goal total.

Goal LadderUp 49% return this season · 51 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 2-10 on this game · −58% return

  1. Boston Bruins to win5 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    5 modelsThe Stanley Cup, Brewing NHL Ml 2.0 +3
    Why 5 models like it
    The Stanley Cup
    • Boston is 9-3-1 with 3.77 GF and 2.15 GA per game; St. Louis is 5-6-1 at 2.92/3.08.
    • Jeremy Swayman is confirmed: .921 save percentage and 70.0% quality starts versus Joel Hofer's .917 and 37.5%.
    • St. Louis owns the small 5-on-5 possession edge: 50.8% Corsi and 48.5% Fenwick versus Boston's 48.1% and 47.9%.
    Brewing NHL Ml 2.0
    • Jeremy Swayman confirmed 9:57am by Adam Pellerin; current .921 save rate and 7 quality starts in 10 starts.
    • Joel Hofer confirmed 10:07am by Lou Korac; current .917 save rate and 3 quality starts in 8 starts.
    • St. Louis owns the stronger current power play, 22.8% versus Boston’s 17.2%; Boston’s PK advantage is the counterweight.
    Cohort Check
    • Boston averages 3.769 goals per game versus St. Louis at 2.917 through 12, 13 games.
    • Confirmed Jeremy Swayman owns a .921 save percentage and 2.19 GAA; Joel Hofer is at .917 and 2.40.
    • Early-season scoring rates are noisy, and Boston's sample is only 13 games.
    Morning Puck
    • Poisson model with early-season shrink makes Boston a 56% winner; the contract costs 50¢.
    • Boston is 9-3-1 with 3.769 goals per game; St. Louis is 5-6-1 with 3.083 goals allowed per game.
    • Pinnacle's devigged number is near a coin flip, so the model is materially more bullish than the sharp market.
  2. Boston Bruins moneyline +103
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Backup NetDown 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Against last season's baseline, Swayman is up 1.35 percentage points; Hofer is up only 0.17 points.
    • Swayman is confirmed and has faced 108 shots across his last four starts in 10 days; the workload profile is not reflected in Boston's plus-money price.
    • Hofer's last-10 figure uses two April 2026 starts because he has only eight current-season starts; the sample is partly cross-season.
  3. Boston Bruins +1.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −265 on FanDuel

    high-confidence main marketsDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent win chance 76%; fair price about -317 versus FanDuel -265.
    • Jeremy Swayman is confirmed and owns a .921 SV% with a 70% quality-start rate.
    • Boston is 9-3-1 with 3.77 goals per game and 2.15 against; St. Louis is 5-6-1 with 2.92 and 3.08.
    • Boston is on the road, and home-ice variance matters in a one-goal game.
  4. Jeremy Swayman over 24.5 saves
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 6 of Swayman's 10 2026 starts cleared 24 saves; he averages 25.7 saves.
    • St. Louis averages 28.2 shots on goal and 31.0 over its last five completed games.
    • Swayman is officially confirmed; the lineup feed was refreshed at 4:16 PM PDT.
    • The Blues were shut out in each of their last two games; another low-shot outing loses.
  5. Boston Bruins @ St. Louis Blues under 1.5 first-period goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current-season first-period rates imply 1.59 combined goals: BOS 1.08 for/0.69 against, STL 0.75 for/0.67 against.
    • Under 1.5 costs 47¢, a 5.8-point gap versus the model probability.
    • The 1.59 estimate uses only 12-13 current-season games per team.
  6. Robert Thomas under 1.5 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Thomas has 3 shots in his last five games (0.6 per game) versus a 1.5 line.
    • He stayed under 1.5 in 4 of those 5 games; the recent average is 60% below the posted line.
    • Boston enters 9-3-1 and ranks second in goals allowed per game at 2.15.
    • Five games is a small sample, and one additional two-shot performance loses.
Show all 8 picks
  1. Game total under 6.5
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Novig

    Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 60.6% model fair from a Poisson fit to Pinnacle's de-vigged moneyline and 6.0-goal total.
    • Novig under 6.5 costs 57c; model gap is approximately +3.6 percentage points.
    • Jeremy Swayman and Joel Hofer were both confirmed starters in live goalie updates.
    • Pinnacle's reference total is 6.0, so the 6.5 fair is a half-goal model extrapolation.
  2. St. Louis Blues −1.5Long shot
    +233%Won

    Taken at 30¢ on Novig

    NHL Active v2Down 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed goalies: Joel Hofer and Jeremy Swayman; both have full-season save rates above .916.
    • The selected price is a narrow market-reference edge, not a claim of a strong team-model advantage.
    • Boston's 9-3-1 record and 3.77 goals per game materially exceed St. Louis at 5-6-1 and 2.92.

Questions

Who won Bruins vs. Blues?

The Blues won 4–1 on Thursday, Oct 29, 2026.

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