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Islanders vs. WildFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalGrand Casino Arena
Islanders
4–3Final
Wild
Score by period
Team1234T
NYI11114
MIN11103

Top model pick, graded

Won

Kirill Kaprizov over 2.5 shots on goal −170

Why Frozen Frenzy likes it: 3.9 projected SOG mean; early-season blend weights prior season 58.8% and current season 41.2%.

Frozen FrenzyDown 15% this season · 23 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 6-7 on this game · −17% return

  1. Minnesota Wild to winFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −190 on BetMGM

    The Stanley CupUp 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wild are 9-3-2 with 3.14 GF and 2.21 GA per game; Islanders are 6-4-2 with 3.00 GF and 2.67 GA.
    • Combined 5-on-5 possession is 54.5% for Minnesota versus 50.5% for New York, using Corsi and Fenwick equally.
    • Confirmed starters favor Wallstedt: .9223 save percentage and 75.0% quality starts versus Sorokin at .9186 and 62.5%.
    • Small early-season samples: 14 Minnesota games and 12 New York games.
  2. Matt Boldy no 1+ goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi

    Hot Hand CoolerDown 49% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4.2 shots/game over his last 10; regression target remains below that recent heat.
    • Recent 10-game goal rate is 5 in 42 shots (11.9%); season rate is 5 in 61 (8.2%).
    • Shrunk shot rate plus Sorokin's .9186 season save percentage puts my goal estimate near 33%.
    • Boldy is projected on Minnesota's first power-play unit, preserving scoring opportunity.
  3. Maxim Shabanov over 0.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Novig

    role repricingDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Shabanov's PP time rose to 358 and 361 seconds in his last two games versus 185 seconds per game across his first 11.
    • He has 9 points in 13 games and 6 power-play points; this evaluates his own rates, not a displaced star's.
    • Novig price is 47.5c; DraftKings is +100 and Pinnacle -107 on the same threshold, providing an independent reference.
    • The PP1 assignment is expected rather than official, and his even-strength line remains projected third.
  4. Goal in first 10 minutes
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    First TenDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Sorokin (.9186 SV%) and Wallstedt (.9223 SV%) provide the two-strong-goalie matchup required for this projection.
    • First-period over 0.5 is priced at 83%, so the 47% ten-minute goal probability passes the coherence check.
    • MIN and NYI still drive possession: 5v5 Corsi is 53.7% and 51.0%, respectively.
  5. Kirill Kaprizov over 2.5 shots on goal
    +59%Won

    Taken at −170 on DraftKings

    Frozen FrenzyDown 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 3.9 projected SOG mean; early-season blend weights prior season 58.8% and current season 41.2%.
    • Kirill cleared 2.5 SOG in 9 of his last 10 games, averaging 3.9; last-five average is 3.4.
    • Expected top line and PP1 role appeared across five recent game-date updates; current PP time is 20.8 minutes per game.
    • Minnesota's opponent, New York, allows only 26.3 shots per game, not a bottom-third permissive matchup.
  6. New York Islanders +2.5Favorite
    +39%Won

    Taken at 72¢ on Polymarket US

    Fair DogDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 5.51 projected total goals from current team scoring and conceding rates, matching the 5.5 market anchor.
    • Sharp -191 moneyline and 5.5 total calibrate Minnesota win-by-3+ near 23%; Islanders +2.5 fair near 77%.
    • FanDuel and DraftKings price the same +2.5 rung around -260/-310, making Polymarket the cheaper venue.
    • Jesper Wallstedt is expected but not confirmed; Ilya Sorokin is confirmed for New York.
Show all 13 picks
  1. New York Islanders +1.5
    +65%Won

    Taken at −155 on DraftKings

    high-confidence main marketsDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent cover estimate: 62.5%; fair price approximately -167 versus DraftKings -155.
    • Confirmed Ilya Sorokin starts; his .919 save rate and 2.26 GAA keep one-goal protection meaningful.
    • Minnesota is without confirmed starters Brock Faber and Jared Spurgeon, weakening the favorite's defensive margin.
    • Minnesota is 9-3-2 with a +0.93 goals-per-game margin; Islanders are 6-4-2 with +0.33.
  2. Game total over 6.5 goals
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

    Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The same corrected mean is 6.34 goals, with the positive-correlation adjustment producing about a 47% chance of 7+ goals.
    • Minnesota's -192 favorite price and approximately one-goal profile fit the desk's close-game empty-net setup.
    • The full ladder is monotone: over prices are 0.53 at 5.5, 0.42 at 6.5, and 0.23 at 7.5, with both sides quoted.
    • Seven goals needs either natural scoring efficiency or late empty-net conversion; a 6-goal finish loses despite clearing the 5.5 rung.
  3. Game total over 5.5 goals
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model mean is 6.34 goals: NYI 3.000 + MIN 3.143 + 0.20 empty-net correction.
    • Small positive team-goal correlation lifts the model to roughly 62% for 6+ goals.
    • Minnesota is -192, within the close-favorite profile; a one-goal game supports earlier empty-net pressure.
    • The 6.34 mean uses only 12 Islanders and 14 Wild games, so early-season rates are noisy.
  4. Game under 5.5 total goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +105 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Research grade B: confirmed Ilya Sorokin and Jesper Wallstedt are the starting goalies.
    • Matchup baseline is 5.51 goals from season scoring/allowance rates; goalie form (.9186 Sorokin, .9221 Wallstedt) trims the projection to about 5.35.
    • Minnesota's last 10 games went under 5.5 four times and the Islanders' six times; the combined recent scoring profile is not inflated enough to justify a shorter under price.
    • Both teams average about 3.0 goals per game, so the under has little margin for an early special-teams swing.
  5. Game first-period total under 1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 5.5 game total and team rates imply about 5.51 combined goals: MIN 3.143 GF/2.214 GA, NYI 3.000/2.667 GA.
    • Nesting 5.51 across first/second/third-period means 1.76/2.06/2.14 plus 0.2 gives a first-period mean near 1.57.
    • Both sides quote on a monotone first-period ladder: over 1.5 at 53¢ and under 1.5 at 48¢.
    • The Poisson and period-allocation assumptions may miss matchup-specific opening pace.
  6. under 6.5 total goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Minnesota allows 2.21 goals/game and Wallstedt is confirmed with a .922 save rate and 75% quality-start rate.
    • Islanders score 3.00/game, but their 15.4% power play is outweighed by Minnesota's 26.5% power play and both confirmed starting goalies.
    • Minnesota is missing Brock Faber and Jared Spurgeon; depleted defense can turn a six-goal game into a seven-goal loss.
  7. Game total over 5.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Novig

    Second String ShootoutUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle -118/+105 devigs to 52.6% over at the same 5.5 rung.
    • One confirmed backup adjustment adds 0.30 goals, lifting fair over probability to 57.1%.
    • Minnesota's 62.14 attempts/game blended with Islanders' 55.92 allowed projects 59.0 attempts, top two-fifths leaguewide.
    • The 0.30-goal backup adjustment is a projection, not a player-specific goalie model.

Questions

Who won Islanders vs. Wild?

The Islanders won 4–3 on Thursday, Oct 29, 2026.

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