Sharks vs. SenatorsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalCanadian Tire Centre

Sharks

6–2Final

Senators

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	T
SJ	1	3	2	6
OTT	1	0	1	2

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 5.5 60¢

Why Second String Shootout likes it: Pinnacle 6.5 total devigs to 48.1% over; fitted mean is approximately 6.55 goals, implying roughly 63.7% over 5.5 before adjustments.

Second String ShootoutUp 19% return this season · 27 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 7-4 on this game · +21% return

San Jose Sharks to win3 models agree
+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
3 modelsBackup Tax, Scratch Shift +1
Why 3 models like it
Backup Tax
- Pinnacle -129/+117 devigs to roughly 55% Ottawa / 45% San Jose; a 3.5-point backup adjustment puts San Jose near 48%.
- NHL.com confirms Samuel Ersson starts for Ottawa, with recalled Jonas Johansson backing him after Linus Ullmark's injury.
- Ersson's tiny sample can be misleading, and a backup adjustment may overstate the true gap.
Scratch Shift
- Thomas Chabot is confirmed out; top-four defender logged 18.1 5v5 minutes per game, 19 shots and one goal in nine.
- Ersson owns an .831 save percentage in four current-season appearances; small sample, but weakens Ottawa's crease.
- Chabot's defensive impact is difficult to convert cleanly; one-player absence may be overestimated.
Morning Puck
- Ottawa’s likely starter Samuel Ersson is 0-2 with a 4.70 GAA and .831 save percentage, and the preview says he is likely to work the second game of the back-to-back.
- San Jose’s Yaroslav Askarov is the confirmed starter; his .865 season save percentage is a concern, but the Ottawa goaltending downgrade is larger in this matchup.
- Askarov has a .865 save percentage and four straight regulation losses, so San Jose could lose despite the goalie mismatch.
Game total over 5.5
+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on Novig
Second String ShootoutUp 39% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle 6.5 total devigs to 48.1% over; fitted mean is approximately 6.55 goals, implying roughly 63.7% over 5.5 before adjustments.
- Samuel Ersson is confirmed for Ottawa and is the backup behind Linus Ullmark (2 starts versus 8); backup adjustment adds 0.30 goals.
- San Jose's five-game attempt sample is noisy, and Ottawa produced only 48.4 attempts per game across its last five.
Ottawa Senators to win
−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Backup NetDown 3% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Ersson's last 10 starts were 215/245 saves (.8776), +0.8 points over his .8696 prior-season baseline.
- Askarov's last 10 starts were 250/291 (.8591), 2.5 points below his .8837 prior-season baseline.
- The 536-shot combined sample is hard-shrunk toward last season; Ottawa also owns the stronger L10 scoring margin (+0.5 vs. -0.8).
- Ersson has only two 2026-27 starts (.831 on 71 shots), while Askarov's current six-start slump can reverse.
Macklin Celebrini 2+ goalsLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 10¢ on Kalshi
Points FloorNew model
Why it likes it
- Using the desk’s 1.6, 2.0 points-to-goals range, the goal rung implies roughly 19, 25¢, not 10¢.
- The 15¢ upper-end gap remains 9¢ after the 4¢ points spread and 2¢ goal spread; both rungs have trade history.
- NHL’s official game preview lists Celebrini on San Jose’s first line; no current injury designation applies.
- Two-goal anytime markets are high-variance tail events; the heuristic is not a player scoring model.
San Jose Sharks puck line +1.5Favorite
+49%Won
Taken at 67¢ on Novig
Backup TaxDown 100% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 71.8% Poisson fair after adding 0.30 goals to San Jose for Ottawa's backup start.
- Pinnacle's current de-vigged fair for San Jose +1.5 is about 66.5%, while the current line remains close to its opening price.
- Yaroslav Askarov is confirmed for San Jose and has been the club's more frequent 2026-27 starter, so the trigger is Ottawa-only.
- A 5.3-point model gap is sensitive to the Poisson fit and the assumed 0.30-goal goalie adjustment.
Ottawa Senators −1.5Long shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US
Overtime TaxDown 31% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Ottawa's 55% moneyline market and a 1.3-goal recent form gap identify the Senators as the stronger side.
- The brief's strongest-favorite base rate puts winning by 2+ near 43%; 34¢ is roughly 9 points cheaper.
- Selected puck-line price is materially below the moneyline-implied margin value, clearing the 4-point threshold.
- Ottawa wins by exactly one, or San Jose wins outright; NHL one-goal games run roughly 38-43%.

Show all 9 picks

San Jose Sharks +1.5Favorite
+46%Won
Taken at −218 on DraftKings
high-confidence main marketsDown 20% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 73% independent cover estimate; fair price approximately -270 versus DraftKings -218.
- Confirmed starters: Yaroslav Askarov for San Jose and Samuel Ersson for Ottawa.
- Ottawa is on a back-to-back after Wednesday's 5-1 win; San Jose has two days since its last game.
- Ottawa is 7-3 with a +5 goal differential; San Jose is 5-4-1 with a -8 differential.
Macklin Celebrini over 3.5 shots on goal
−100%Lost
Taken at +110 on FanDuel
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 37 shots in his last 8 games: 4.625 per game, with 5 overs in 8.
- Recent workload is stable: 20+ minutes in 7 of those 8 games and a confirmed projected lineup role.
- Samuel Ersson is confirmed for Ottawa and owns an .831 season save percentage across four appearances.
- The 5-8 over sample is small and contains no push protection at 3.5.
Yaroslav Askarov over 24.5 total saves
+100%Won
Taken at +100 on FanDuel
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days

Questions

Who won Sharks vs. Senators?

The Sharks won 6–2 on Thursday, Oct 22, 2026.