Kings vs. IslandersFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalUBS Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| NYI | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonLos Angeles Kings to win 51¢
Why Backup Tax likes it: Varlamov is officially confirmed for New York; he has only one prior 2026-27 start, while Sorokin started Tuesday.
Backup TaxNew · 8 graded so far
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-3 on this game · −37% return
- New York Islanders −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 28¢ on Polymarket US
Rung SeamDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- NYI +0.78 goal differential per game versus LAK -1.43 through 9 and 7 games: a 2.21-goal form gap clears the 1.2 strongest-side gate.
- Kings +1.5 is quoted at 0.73 versus Kings moneyline 0.51, satisfying the dog-cover cross-check while leaving the favorite rung unusually cheap.
- The moneyline is nearly even: Kings 0.51 versus Islanders 0.50, a meaningful conflict with the short-form signal.
- Los Angeles Kings to win+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Backup TaxNew modelWhy it likes it
- Varlamov is officially confirmed for New York; he has only one prior 2026-27 start, while Sorokin started Tuesday.
- Kuemper is the Kings' expected starter and has handled the club's usual starter workload this season.
- Backup tax: shift Pinnacle's devigged LA probability near 50.5% up roughly 3.5 points to about 54%.
- Varlamov may be a stronger co-starter than the one-start sample indicates; his recent Oct. 15 start produced a .950 save rate.
- New York Islanders to win−100%Lost
Taken at −104 on FanDuel
Brewing NHL Ml 2.0Down 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Daily Faceoff confirmed Darcy Kuemper and Semyon Varlamov at 23:00Z and 14:49Z, respectively.
- Varlamov is .9048 overall/.9032 even-strength; Kuemper is .8692/.9082 this season, with Kuemper's .8914 prior baseline.
- Islanders PK is 87.5% versus Kings 64.0%; PP is nearly even, and both teams have two days' rest.
- Islanders are without Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov, Matias Maccelli and Cal Ritchie; Quinton Byfield is a Kings game-time decision.
- New York Islanders +2.5+20%Won
Taken at 83¢ on Polymarket US
Fair DogDown 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Skellam margin fit anchored to the near-even sharp moneyline and 5.5 total gives roughly 88% Islanders +2.5 cover probability.
- 83¢ is about five percentage points below that fair-cover estimate, clearing the 4-point threshold.
- Islanders' current rates are 3.00 GF and 2.22 GA per game; Kings are at 2.43 GF and 3.86 GA.
- Los Angeles is the slight sharp-money favorite, so a three-goal result remains the key failure path.
- Matthew Schaefer over 0.5 assists−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 7 assists in his first 5 home games: 1.40 per game versus a 0.5 line.
- on-5 report credits Schaefer with 5 assists through 9 games.
- Official Islanders preview lists him in the active top defensive pair after morning skate.
- The home-assist sample is only 5 games and may include unsustainable early-season scoring.
Questions
Who won Kings vs. Islanders?
The Kings won 3-2 on Thursday, Oct 22, 2026.