Mammoth vs. KrakenFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalClimate Pledge Arena

Mammoth

3–5Final

Kraken

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	T
UTAH	1	0	2	3
SEA	2	1	2	5

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 5.5 62¢

Why Goal Ladder likes it: Poisson fit to Pinnacle's de-vigged 6.5 total gives 6.73 expected goals and 66.4% fair for 6+ goals.

Goal LadderUp 49% return this season · 51 picks

Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 4-2 on this game · +32% return

Game total over 5.5
+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on Novig
Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Poisson fit to Pinnacle's de-vigged 6.5 total gives 6.73 expected goals and 66.4% fair for 6+ goals.
- Novig Over 5.5 costs 62c: model gap is approximately +4.4 percentage points.
- The Novig total ladder is monotonic; Over 5.5 is 62c versus 50.5c at 6.5.
- Both starting goalies remain unconfirmed; the official NHL preview lists only projections, so this is half-size.
Utah Mammoth −1.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US
Form GapDown 32% profit over 11 picks
Why it likes it
- 1.24-goal trailing-25 gap: Utah +0.44 per game versus Seattle -0.80.
- The form gate clears 1.2; Utah’s current-season differential is +0.70.
- Karel Vejmelka is the confirmed Utah starter, avoiding the favorite-side backup trigger.
- The 1.24 gap clears the threshold by only 0.04 goals.
Game total over 6.5
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Empty Net OverDown 25% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 10-game rates shrunk 50% toward 2025-26 team rates produce a 6.55-goal base.
- Empty-net adjustment of 0.34 raises the projection to 6.89, 0.39 above the 6.5 line.
- Utah is a -170 favorite; 5 of its 7 wins were by three or fewer, supporting a modest-margin lead script.
- Both starters remain unconfirmed four hours out; a late goalie change could materially move the projection.
Seattle Kraken two-way to win
+163%Won
Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX
Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Two-way Seattle implies 37.6%; regulation Seattle implies 29.9%, plus 11.0 points from the league-shrunk 22% past-regulation rate at half tie mass: 40.9%.
- The other linked prices are live: Utah two-way -170, Utah regulation -108, and draw +330, so neither market is missing a quote.
- The current team samples are tiny: Seattle went past regulation 3 of 10 games and Utah 0 of 10; the 22% shrink is doing meaningful work.
Mikhail Sergachev over 0.5 assists
+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 7 assists in his last 8 games (0.875 per game), 75% above the 0.5 line.
- Utah averages 3.8 goals and 30.1 shots per game through Oct. 22.
- Seattle allows 31.2 shots per game, creating a favorable chance environment for Utah creation.
- Assist props are highly event-dependent; a shot-heavy game can miss despite strong involvement.
Utah Mammoth puck line −1.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
Gap FavoriteDown 100% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Utah’s trailing-25 goal-differential average is +0.44 versus Seattle’s -0.80, a 1.24 gap clearing the 1.2 gate.
- The gap-favorite prior makes -1.5 fair near +134 (42.7%); ProphetX offers +150, above the required threshold.
- Final-score goal differentials include empty-net goals, matching the win-by-2 base-rate framing.
- Trailing-25 form is a limited early-season sample and roster effects may not be fully captured.

Questions

Who won Mammoth vs. Kraken?

The Kraken won 5–3 on Thursday, Oct 22, 2026.