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Red Wings vs. OilersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalRogers Place
Red Wings
4–3Final
Oilers
Score by period
Team12345T
DET012014
EDM102003

Top model pick, graded

Won

Detroit Red Wings +1.5 60¢

Why Fair Fence likes it: The bucket produced 58 dog +1.5 wins in 87 2026 games (66.7%) and 109 in 180 last-season games (60.6%).

Fair FenceUp 15% return this season · 23 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-4 on this game · +15% return

  1. Edmonton Oilers −1.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

    3 modelsSpare Crease Spread, Backup Tax +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Spare Crease Spread
    • Edmonton is -174 at Pinnacle and -178 at FanDuel, clearing the -140 moneyline gate.
    • Detroit has confirmed backup Michal Postava making his first career start; the projection adds the brief's +0.3-goal goalie penalty.
    • Edmonton's current sample is only 11 games and includes a recent 2-7 loss to Toronto; goal-difference variance is wide.
    Backup Tax
    • Pinnacle -1.5 +132 versus -149 de-vigs Edmonton's same-line cover probability to 41.9%.
    • Poisson fit to Pinnacle ML (-174/+156) and 6.5 total gives roughly 3.8, 2.7 goals.
    • Late scratches are unknown; the confirmed pregame lineup could still change before puck drop.
    Gap Favorite
    • Edmonton's trailing-25 goal-differential average is +0.44 versus Detroit's -0.76, a 1.20 gap that clears the 1.2 gate exactly.
    • Confirmed Tristan Jarry starts for Edmonton; Detroit's confirmed Michal Postava is making his first career start.
    • The projection cushion is only 1.38 percentage points, so normal NHL variance dominates this low-conviction play.
  2. Game total over 6.52 models agree
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsEmpty Net Over, NHL Ice Edge
    Why 2 models like it
    Empty Net Over
    • 6.63-goal baseline after 50/50 shrinkage of 11-game rates toward 2025-26 regular-season rates.
    • Brief's +0.34 empty-net adjustment projects 6.97 goals, 0.47 above the 6.5 line.
    • Detroit's current 2.64 goals per game can keep this below the number if Edmonton's offense does not carry the matchup.
    NHL Ice Edge
    • Recent special-teams index favors Edmonton 102.3% to Detroit 77.3%, a 25.0-point swing that adds scoring paths.
    • Michal Postava has only two current-season appearances and no starts in the form table; his true level is highly uncertain.
  3. Connor McDavid over 1.5 pointsHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −170 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current season: McDavid cleared 1.5 points in 11 of 11 games, averaging 3.00 points.
    • 2025 season: 71 of 88 games cleared 1.5 points; 1.64 points per game.
    • Edmonton averages 4.45 goals and owns a 35.1% power play; Detroit's penalty kill is 65.8%.
    • The 1.5 threshold needs two points; a one-point game loses despite elite usage.
  4. Detroit Red Wings +1.5
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX

    Fair FenceUp 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The bucket produced 58 dog +1.5 wins in 87 2026 games (66.7%) and 109 in 180 last-season games (60.6%).
    • Shrinking those samples gives a 63.5% fair estimate, about -174; ProphetX -148 implies 59.7%.
    • Both goalies are confirmed: Edmonton’s Tristan Jarry and Detroit’s Michal Postava, with the latter’s first NHL start independently confirmed.
    • Detroit’s current sample is only 11 games, and the 87-game bucket is early-season data.
  5. Detroit Red Wings to win
    +150%Won

    Taken at +150 on DraftKings

    Shot Share LagDown 25% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Blended team SAT: Detroit 0.509 vs Edmonton 0.514; Edmonton's pointPctg 0.773 is far ahead of its process.
    • Blended team PDO: Detroit 0.991 vs Edmonton 1.013; Edmonton's hot record is vulnerable to regression, especially with Tristan Jarry at .861 save percentage.
    • Arithmetic: Detroit expected_pp 0.520 vs pointPctg 0.500, divergence -0.020; Edmonton expected_pp 0.530 vs pointPctg 0.773, divergence +0.242.
    • Edmonton's power play and McDavid-Draisaitl finishing can overwhelm a 5v5 regression read at home.
  6. Detroit Red Wings puck line +2.5Favorite
    +39%Won

    Taken at 72¢ on Polymarket US

    Fair DogDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Edmonton’s 11-game scoring gap is about 0.9 goals, below the 1.2-goal strongest-favorite base-rate bucket.
    • Edmonton is 8-3 over its last 11 while Detroit is 4-7; a multi-goal Oilers win is plainly live.
Show all 8 picks
  1. DET-EDM game over 6.5 total goals
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season scoring inputs imply approximately 6.9 goals: Edmonton 4.45 GF/3.55 GA, Detroit 2.64 GF/3.09 GA.
    • Last 10 completed games averaged 7.3 combined goals; Edmonton scored 4.4 per game and Detroit 2.9.
    • Confirmed starters Jarry (.861 season save percentage) and Postava (.875 in limited action) add goaltending volatility.
    • Detroit's 2.64 season scoring rate can leave the game below 7 despite Edmonton's high offense.
  2. Lucas Raymond over 2.5 shots on goal
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 32 shots over his last 10 games equals 3.2 per game, 28% above the 2.5 line.
    • Raymond is confirmed active for Detroit in the live participant feed, removing the availability gate.
    • Edmonton’s 27.0 shots allowed is not an elite positive matchup, so the edge leans heavily on Raymond’s recent rate.

Questions

Who won Red Wings vs. Oilers?

The Red Wings won 4–3 on Monday, Oct 26, 2026.

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