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Jets vs. StarsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAmerican Airlines Center
Jets
2–3Final
Stars
Score by period
Team1234T
WPG02002
DAL01113

Top model pick, graded

Won

Tyler Seguin over 1.5 shots on goal −137

Why Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix likes it: Seguin averages 3.0 shots on goal over his last five games (15 total).

Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 8% this season · 628 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 10-3 on this game · +29% return

  1. Dallas Stars to winFavorite3 models agree
    +52%Won

    Taken at −192 on FanDuel

    3 modelsThe Stanley Cup, Fade the Goalie +1
    Why 3 models like it
    The Stanley Cup
    • Dallas allows 1.56 goals/game versus Winnipeg's 2.89 through nine games.
    • Confirmed Jake Oettinger: .9452 save percentage, .9364 even-strength, 71.4% quality starts.
    • Winnipeg scores 2.67 goals/game and owns a 26.1% power play versus Dallas at 17.4%.
    Fade the Goalie
    • ProphetX is -180 (64.29c) versus Pinnacle -194; its opening -200 drifted 20 cents away from Dallas.
    • Stuart Skinner was confirmed for Winnipeg; the live injury feed lists Connor Hellebuyck on IR, making this a backup filling the starter role.
    • Skinner has a .909 current-season save percentage and four quality starts in six starts; a negative GSAA is not established.
    Cohort Check
    • Own price 67%; Pinnacle’s devigged 64.3% gives a 2.7-point independent gap.
    • Dallas allows 1.667 goals/game versus Winnipeg’s 2.889 through nine games.
    • Dallas is without Matt Duchene and Esa Lindell; Winnipeg still has top-end scoring.
  2. Dallas Stars spread −1.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsSpare Crease Spread, Backup Tax
    Why 2 models like it
    Spare Crease Spread
    • Goal-difference projection gives Dallas -1.5 a 46% cover probability, including empty-net scoring.
    • Stuart Skinner is confirmed for Winnipeg while Jake Oettinger is confirmed for Dallas; Skinner replaces injured/suspended starter Connor Hellebuyck.
    • A 46% projection is only five points above the exchange price; normal NHL variance can erase the edge.
    Backup Tax
    • Skinner is confirmed for Winnipeg while usual starter Connor Hellebuyck remains absent; Oettinger is confirmed for Dallas.
    • Current MoneyPuck GSAx: Skinner +3.64 versus Oettinger +9.35, not an elite tandem comparison for Winnipeg.
    • The Poisson adjustment is a model assumption and ignores special teams, overtime mechanics, and correlated game state.
  3. Tyler Seguin over 1.5 shots on goalHigh conviction
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seguin averages 3.0 shots on goal over his last five games (15 total).
    • He cleared 1.5 shots in 4 of those 5 games.
    • PrizePicks has Seguin active for this game at the 1.5-shot line.
    • Five-game form is a small sample and includes one game at exactly 1 shot.
  4. Jason Robertson over 2.5 shots on goal
    +65%Won

    Taken at −155 on DraftKings

    Frozen FrenzyDown 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Negative-binomial P(3+ SOG) is approximately 68%; a 10% mean stress remains approximately 61%, clearing the 60% test.
    • Robertson is over 2.5 in 6 of 9 current games and 4 of his last 5; prior-season average was 3.59 SOG.
    • Winnipeg allows 29.1 shots per game versus a 27.19 league average, supporting the high-event matchup.
    • Projected lines and PP1 are not warmup-confirmed; no scratch is listed, so conviction is capped at medium.
  5. Winnipeg Jets puck line +2.5Favorite
    +39%Won

    Taken at 72¢ on Polymarket US

    Fair DogDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model gives Dallas a 23.0% chance to win by 3+; fair Winnipeg +2.5 cover is 77.0%.
    • Confirmed Oettinger, Skinner goalie matchup supports Dallas as favorite but not a runaway-margin projection.
    • Polymarket's full-game spread ladder is monotone: Winnipeg +1.5 60¢, +2.5 72¢, +3.5 88¢; the +2.5 rung is the value point.
    • Early-season rates cover only nine games per team, so the margin distribution is noisy.
  6. under 5.5 total goals
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected total 4.9 goals from current offense/defense averages: WPG 2.67 GF and DAL 1.67 GA; DAL 2.56 GF and WPG 2.89 GA.
    • 14 of the teams' last 18 completed games stayed under 5.5 combined goals: Dallas 9/9, Winnipeg 5/9.
    • Confirmed starters Jake Oettinger and Stuart Skinner have allowed 6 goals on 123 shots and 12 on 146, respectively, this season.
    • The four recent head-to-head totals went under 5.5 only once; those meetings averaged 6.75 goals.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Winnipeg Jets @ Dallas Stars under 6.5 total goals
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US

    Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total is 5.56 goals after shrinking both teams' nine-game rates toward the 3.10 league scoring average.
    • Poisson model gives 67.6% for six or fewer goals, versus a 62¢ Polymarket US under price.
    • Jake Oettinger is confirmed at .945 save percentage; Stuart Skinner is likely at .910, supporting the sharp 5.5-goal line.
    • Skinner is only listed as likely, not confirmed; this is half-sized under the morning-starter caveat.
  2. Winnipeg Jets under 2.5 team goals
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Team Total SeamDown 103% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi team ladders imply roughly 3.3 Dallas goals and 2.5 Winnipeg goals; their sum agrees with the game ladder near 5.8.
    • Sharp total is 5.5, while the 64.5% Dallas moneyline split points toward a lower Winnipeg share than its stale ladder implies.
    • Winnipeg's ladder remains monotone: over 1.5 at 70¢, over 2.5 at 46.5¢, over 3.5 at 25¢.
    • Moneyline probability is not a direct goals-share model; the internal split inference could be wrong.
  3. Winnipeg Jets two-way to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

    Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • two-way Winnipeg +174 implies 36.5%; regulation Winnipeg +260 implies 27.8%; tie +325 implies 23.5%.
    • The 3.0-point gap only narrowly clears the 3-point threshold and is sensitive to rounding.
  4. Winnipeg Jets under 1.5 first-period goals
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nine-game period rates produce 1.39 matchup goals in period one before nesting.
    • Regulation period estimates total 4.78; adding 0.20 for empty-net/OT and scaling to the 5.5 game total gives first-period mean about 1.54.
    • Skinner and Oettinger are projected, not officially confirmed starters, so a late goalie change matters.

Questions

Who won Jets vs. Stars?

The Stars won 3–2 on Thursday, Oct 22, 2026.

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