Hurricanes vs. OilersFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalRogers Place
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| EDM | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSebastian Aho over 2.5 shots on goal +102
Why THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM likes it: 63.6% season hit rate (7/11) over 2.5 SOG.
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 8% this season · 173 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 7-2 on this game · +93% return
- Sebastian Aho over 2.5 shots on goal+102%Won
Taken at +102 on FanDuel
2 modelsTHE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM, NHL Shot Volume HunterWhy 2 models like it
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM- 63.6% season hit rate (7/11) over 2.5 SOG.
- 80% L5 hit rate (4/5); official lineup keeps him on Carolina's top line.
- Only 11 games of current-season data; early-season rates can regress.
NHL Shot Volume Hunter- 3.0 SOG average over his last 10 games, exactly 0.5 above the 2.5 line.
- 6.5 average shot attempts per game, 19:52 average TOI, and 4:46 average PP time.
- The 2.5 threshold is close to the mean; two SOG loses despite strong attempts.
- Carolina Hurricanes to win−100%Lost
Taken at −129 on Pinnacle
2 modelsShot Share Lag, NHL Ice EdgeWhy 2 models like it
Shot Share Lag- Team SAT: Carolina 0.608 blended current/prior; Edmonton 0.515 blended, with Edmonton's current raw 0.528 versus Carolina's 0.610.
- Team PDO: Carolina 0.981 blended and current 0.979; Edmonton 1.019 blended, with current 1.056 showing the record is riding an early shooting/save spike.
- Edmonton's current 1.056 PDO may contain real elite finishing or goaltending rather than pure regression; the starting goalies are unconfirmed.
NHL Ice Edge- Recent 5v5 Corsi share: Carolina 61.5% versus Edmonton 47.9%, a 13.6-point gap.
- Season 5v5 Corsi baseline also favors Carolina 60.1% to 47.9%, a 12.2-point gap.
- Brandon Bussi is projected but unconfirmed; no official confirmation of both starters, so conviction is capped below high.
- Game total over 7.5+223%Won
Taken at 31¢ on Novig
Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Poisson fit to de-vigged Pinnacle 6.5 total and moneyline gives about 6.8 expected goals and 37.5% for 8+.
- The Novig total ladder is monotonic from over 5.5 at 64c through over 9.5 at 12c.
- Edmonton averages 4.556 goals and Carolina 3.818 through the verified 2026 season sample.
- Edmonton starter Brandon Bussi is only listed as likely, not confirmed; this is sized 0.5u.
- Game goes to overtime+355%Won
Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi
Overtime BookUp 3% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Moneyline ladder: Carolina 55c, Edmonton 46c; the matchup is close after overtime is included.
- 1.5-goal spread ladder leaves roughly 42% in the non-2-plus-goal middle.
- 6.5-goal total is near-even: over 53c / under 47c, consistent with a competitive game.
- Starting-goalie confirmations and late lineup news were not established in the checked sources.
- Goal in first 10 minutes+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi
First TenDown 22% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed starters are Brandon Bussi (.882 SV%) and Devon Levi (.898 SV%), a two-shaky-goalie pairing.
- Carolina averages 34.27 shots and 3.818 goals per game; Edmonton averages 4.556 goals.
- First-period Over 0.5 is 87¢, keeping the 68% ten-minute estimate coherent and below the period rate.
- Current-season samples are only 11 Carolina and 9 Edmonton games.
- Edmonton Oilers to win+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 days
Show all 7 picks
- Sebastian Aho over 0.5 assists+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 4 assists in last 5 games (0.80/game) versus the 0.5 line: 60% rate-over-line gap.
- Edmonton's 74.1% penalty kill is the matchup's clear weak point.
- NHL.com projects Aho between Carrier and Svechnikov; the fresh PrizePicks board lists him for this game.
- Assists are highly volatile; one secondary touch or no finish loses despite offensive involvement.
Questions
Who won Hurricanes vs. Oilers?
The Oilers won 6–5 on Thursday, Oct 22, 2026.