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Ducks vs. DevilsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalPrudential Center
Ducks
1–4Final
Devils
Score by period
Team123T
ANA0011
NJ2024

Top model pick, graded

Won

New Jersey Devils to win −218

Why The Stanley Cup likes it: 5v5 SAT/USAT: New Jersey 60.5%/59.9% versus Anaheim 48.3%/48.6% over nine games.

The Stanley CupUp 13% return this season · 39 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 3-8 on this game · −47% return

  1. Anaheim Ducks to winLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsCohort Check, Regulation Gap
    Why 2 models like it
    Cohort Check
    • Model price: Anaheim 37%, 3.1 points above Pinnacle's 33.9% devigged Ducks probability.
    • Confirmed starters favor Anaheim's net: Ville Husso .885 save percentage versus Nico Daws .857 this season.
    • New Jersey owns a major territorial edge: 60.6% five-on-five Corsi versus Anaheim's 48.5%.
    Regulation Gap
    • Anaheim two-way implies 34.0%; 60-minute Anaheim implies 26.7%.
    • Shrunk 22.0% tie rate adds 11.0 points: reconciled Anaheim probability is 37.7%.
    • The 22% tie prior is shrunk because matchup-specific regulation history is thin; the edge is model-sensitive.
  2. Game total over 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Novig

    Second String ShootoutUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ville Husso and Nico Daws are confirmed; both are backups by starts (2 each versus Dostal 7 and Allen 5).
    • Early-season samples cover only nine games; the shot-attempt blend can regress sharply.
  3. New Jersey Devils to winFavorite
    +46%Won

    Taken at −218 on DraftKings

    The Stanley CupUp 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 5v5 SAT/USAT: New Jersey 60.5%/59.9% versus Anaheim 48.3%/48.6% over nine games.
    • New Jersey has the stronger recent form: 3-2 in its last five versus Anaheim's 1-4.
    • Anaheim has played three games in four days; New Jersey has played two, with both teams on two days' rest.
    • Husso has the better current save percentage (.885 versus Daws's .857), materially narrowing New Jersey's edge.
  4. Anaheim Ducks puck line +2.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 69¢ on ProphetX

    Fair FenceUp 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current five-game gap is 1.8; the nine-game gap is only 0.2, so the estimate is shrunk toward the prior-season distribution.
    • The current-season sample is only nine games; recent gap readings range from 1.8 over five games to 0.2 over nine.
  5. Under 6.5 total goals
    +105%Won

    Taken at +105 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Grade B: DraftKings offers the full-game under 6.5 at +105; exact current offer verified at 3:12 PM PDT.
    • Current NHL sample: 83 of 153 completed games stayed under 6.5 (54.2%).
    • Team scoring rates imply 6.11 goals: New Jersey 3.22 and Anaheim 2.89 through nine games each.
    • Husso and Daws have current-season save percentages of .882 and .875 in their starts, respectively.
  6. Anaheim Ducks @ New Jersey Devils under 1.5 first-period goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Team-rate blend projects 6.33 total goals versus the 6.5 market line.
    • Nested period baseline gives a first-period mean of about 1.81 goals.
    • That implies roughly 46% for 0, 1 first-period goals; the under costs 41¢.
    • Projected starters Ville Husso and Nico Daws are not fully confirmed and could shift scoring expectation.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Dawson Mercer over 1.5 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 80% over rate in his last 10 games; 7 of 9 over this season.
    • 21 shots in 9 games equals 2.33 per game, 55% above the 1.5 line.
    • New Jersey averages 35.7 shots per game; Anaheim allows 26.6 shots against per game.
    • The NHL game-day live page still lists lineups TBA; the prop board and official preview support participation but not a final lineup card.
  2. Game total over 5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 64¢ on Novig

    Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle 6.5 total de-vigs to 52.6% over, implying a Poisson game mean of approximately 6.84 goals.
    • Both starting goalies remain unconfirmed; a material goalie change could erase this minimum-size edge.
  3. Nico Daws over 23.5 total saves
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on Pinnacle

    Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Daws' .8571 raw save percentage is 4.8 points below .905; regression against the cold rate supports more saves.
    • Most likely loss: Anaheim's low current shot rate and Daws' 23.64 shots-against/60 persist, keeping him at 23 saves or fewer.
  4. New Jersey Devils −1.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Scratch ShiftDown 56% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tristan Luneau is listed as a confirmed Anaheim scratch in game-day lineup coverage.
    • Luneau averaged 21:10 across 9 games, a real top-four defensive workload; his replacement absorbs that role.
    • Ville Husso and Nico Daws are both confirmed starters, removing the opposing-goalie uncertainty gate.
    • The NHL page labels the lineup projected, despite game-day coverage calling Luneau scratched; a warmup reversal remains possible.

Questions

Who won Ducks vs. Devils?

The Devils won 4–1 on Thursday, Oct 22, 2026.

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