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Avalanche vs. FlyersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalXfinity Mobile Arena
Avalanche
2–3Final
Flyers
Score by period
Team123T
COL0112
PHI1113

Top model pick, graded

Won

Cale Makar over 2.5 shots on goal −105

Why NHL Shot Volume Hunter likes it: 21:49 average TOI and 4:36 average PP TOI support sustained opportunity.

NHL Shot Volume HunterUp 14% return this season · 34 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-9 on this game · −41% return

  1. Nathan MacKinnon over 1.5 points2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    2 modelsTHE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    Why 2 models like it
    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM
    • 6 of 8 current-season games cleared 1.5 points; 16 points total (2.00 per game).
    • Top-line role is listed in the official NHL preview; sportsbook participant feed confirms this game assignment.
    • Eight-game sample is early-season and can overstate a repeatable scoring rate.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 14 five-on-five points in 8 games equals 1.75 per game, 16.7% above the 1.5 line.
    • NHL preview projects MacKinnon on Colorado's top line with Artturi Lehkonen and Martin Necas.
    • The 8-game sample is early-season and five-on-five-only; point distribution is noisier than the mean.
  2. Colorado Avalanche spread −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +110 on DraftKings

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Colorado averages 4.5 goals per game versus Philadelphia's 1.4 through the current-season sample.
    • Colorado leads the shot-rate matchup 30.8, 21.1 and owns a 5-2-1 record versus Philadelphia's 1-6-3.
    • Flyers scoring depth is weakened by Owen Tippett out and Travis Konecny on injured reserve.
    • Starting-goalie assignments were not confirmed at the 10:00 AM PDT check.
  3. 3-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +28900

    Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX quoted the exact three-leg slip +290 with a $100 maximum stake.
    • Philadelphia beat Colorado 7-3 in January; NHL goalie and overtime variance remains material.
  4. Colorado Avalanche to winFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 69¢ on ProphetX

    The Stanley CupUp 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Colorado is 5-2-1 with 4.5 GF and 3.0 GA per game; Philadelphia is 1-6-3 with 1.4 GF and 3.4 GA.
    • Five-on-five possession proxy favors Colorado: 51.3% Corsi share and 52.1% Fenwick share versus Philadelphia at 40.8% and 38.7%.
    • Starting goalies are confirmed: Mackenzie Blackwood versus Joseph Woll; Colorado's team/possession edge survives Woll's better .916 save percentage.
    • Woll has the stronger early-season goalie profile: .916 save percentage, .914 at even strength, versus Blackwood's .890 and .910.
  5. Cale Makar over 2.5 shots on goal
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    NHL Shot Volume HunterDown 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 21:49 average TOI and 4:36 average PP TOI support sustained opportunity.
    • Philadelphia allows 32.9 SOG/game season-to-date; its last eight allowed 31.9 per game.
    • DraftKings offers -105, inside the -135 to +115 gate and slightly better than FanDuel -106.
    • SOG average clears 2.5 by only 0.21; individual Corsi is an attempts proxy, not shots on net.
  6. Philadelphia Flyers puck line +3.5Favorite
    +19%Won

    Taken at 84¢ on Polymarket US

    Rung SeamDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Strong-favorite base rate puts a 4+ goal win near 13%, or Flyers +3.5 near 0.87 fair.
    • The full-game ladder is monotone, so the value is the underpriced dog side rather than a placeholder rung.
    • 0.84 is exactly the brief's maximum acceptable +3.5 dog price; a small move higher removes the cushion.
Show all 13 picks
  1. Philadelphia Flyers first-period spread +0.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    Square FrameUp 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 43% implied tie mass from COL +0.5 at 84¢ plus PHI +0.5 at 59¢, 8.9 points above the 34.1% baseline.
    • The corresponding first-period outright prices are COL 43¢ and PHI 28¢; adding the 43% tie estimate gives a 1.14 total, breaking the sum check.
    • First-period under 0.5 is 17¢, implying roughly 17% scoreless; the inferred tie mass clears that cross-check.
    • The 43% tie inference may be an isolated order-book distortion rather than a true probability signal.
  2. Colorado Avalanche −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Spare Crease SpreadUp 46% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Colorado leads Philadelphia 36-24 in goals and has a 5-2-1 record versus Philadelphia's 1-6-3.
    • Joseph Woll is confirmed but was Philadelphia's likely backup behind Dan Vladar; apply the brief's +0.3-goal backup penalty.
    • Colorado's moneyline is -238 to -240, clearing the -140 gate; FanDuel's +104 puck-line price is less favorable than 47¢.
    • A 54% projection leaves substantial one-goal and overtime variance in a low-scoring sport.
  3. Nazem Kadri over 2.5 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on BetMGM

    Frozen FrenzyDown 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Philadelphia allows 32.9 shots per game, creating a high-event environment for Colorado.
    • Projected mean 3.05 SOG; Negative Binomial P(3+) is about 55%, versus 50.2% Shin-devigged market probability.
    • Pinnacle stayed at -116/-114 from 7:55 AM to 1:45 PM; BetMGM's -110 over is the best listed price.
    • Kadri cleared 2.5 in only 4 of his last 8 games; the early-season sample is thin.
  4. Game total over 6.5 goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The same 6.35-goal mean with small positive correlation gives approximately 47% for 7+ goals.
    • Sharp money makes Colorado a -236 favorite with a 6.0 total, a close-game pull-goalie setup rather than a -300 blowout profile.
    • Both sides are quoted with a 1¢ gap, and the 6.5 rung is correctly below the 5.5 over price; no US sportsbook beats 44¢.
    • The 6.5 contract needs seven goals, so a 3-2 or 4-2 result loses despite an above-average game.
  5. Game total over 5.5 goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model mean is 6.35 goals: blended team scoring/defense rates 6.15 plus the brief’s 0.20 empty-net adjustment.
    • Positive game-total correlation lifts P(6+ goals) to about 61%; 56¢ implies materially less.
    • Colorado is -236 at Pinnacle, below the -150 favorite gate but above the -300 blowout screen; sharp total is 6.0.
    • Early-season sample is only 8 Colorado and 10 Philadelphia games; the scoring split may regress sharply.
  6. Philadelphia Flyers +2.5Favorite
    +49%Won

    Taken at 67¢ on Novig

    Dog CushionDown 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Colorado's trailing-25 goal difference is +0.92 per game versus Philadelphia's -0.52, a 1.44 gap.
    • The brief's gap-1.2+ base rate sets Philadelphia +2.5 fair at 71.2%.
    • Projected goalies are not confirmed; Mackenzie Blackwood/Scott Wedgewood and Joseph Woll/Dan Vladar are both listed.
  7. Artturi Lehkonen over 0.5 points
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on BetMGM

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 5 of 8 current-season games cleared 0.5 points; 8 points total (1.00 per game).
    • Official NHL preview lists Lehkonen on Colorado's first line with MacKinnon and Necas.
    • He averaged 19:16 TOI across the eight-game sample, with no current injury designation.
    • Three of eight current-season games were scoreless, so the prop remains finishing-dependent.

Questions

Who won Avalanche vs. Flyers?

The Flyers won 3–2 on Monday, Oct 19, 2026.

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