Sabres vs. Maple LeafsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalScotiabank Arena

Sabres

5–4Final

Maple Leafs

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
BUF	1	1	2	1	5
TOR	2	2	0	0	4

Top model pick, graded

Won

Sergei Bobrovsky over 25.5 total saves −118

Why Crease Workload likes it: Toronto is -116 with a 1.000 completeGamePct: neither the -1.5 underdog haircut nor -1.0 pull haircut applies.

Crease WorkloadUp 16% return this season · 87 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 3-2 on this game · +31% return

Sergei Bobrovsky over 25.5 total saves
+85%Won
Taken at −118 on FanDuel
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Toronto is -116 with a 1.000 completeGamePct: neither the -1.5 underdog haircut nor -1.0 pull haircut applies.
- Most likely loss: Buffalo generates 25 or fewer shots on goal despite Toronto's high prior shots-against rate.
Buffalo Sabres–Toronto Maple Leafs first-period total over 1.5
+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Current-season first-period rates: BUF 0.86 GF and 1.29 GA per game; TOR 1.00 GF and 1.14 GA.
- Matchup rate averages produce a 2.14-goal first-period mean.
- The first-period rates come from only seven games, so regression toward the 1.76-goal baseline is substantial.
Game total under 6.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US
Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Poisson blend after first-month shrink projects approximately 6.3 goals, within 0.3 of the sharp 6.5 line.
- Current team rates: Buffalo 2.714 GF / 3.714 GA; Toronto 3.429 GF / 3.286 GA through seven games.
- Projected Luukkonen and Bobrovsky are the expected starters; Toronto's .907 projected save rate supports the lower scoring estimate.
- Luukkonen is only .850 this season, and a poor outing can push this game over quickly.
William Nylander over 0.5 assists
−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 7 assists in 7 games (1.0 per game) is twice the 0.5 projection.
- Buffalo's penalty kill is 60.9% (30th); Toronto's power play is 29.2% (5th).
- Nylander is listed in Toronto's projected lineup and is priced for this game.
- Seven games is a small assist sample; secondary assists are highly volatile.
Game total over 7.5Long shot
+203%Won
Taken at 33¢ on Polymarket US
Whistle CountNew model
Why it likes it
- Hiff/Furlatt rank 6th and 8th of 47 referees by trailing-40 PP opportunities: 6.375 and 6.25 per game.
- Buffalo draws 3.857 and Toronto 3.429 PP opportunities per game, both above the 3.313 league average.
- Team-rate baseline is 6.57 goals; +0.15 crew effect gives a 6.72-goal mean and 36.0% model probability of 8+.
- The team-rate sample is only seven games, and the Poisson model ignores goalie and matchup changes.

Questions

Who won Sabres vs. Maple Leafs?

The Sabres won 5–4 on Thursday, Oct 15, 2026.