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Flyers vs. Red WingsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalLittle Caesars Arena
Flyers
1–2Final
Red Wings
Score by period
Team123T
PHI1001
DET0112

Top model pick, graded

Won

Alex DeBrincat over 3.5 shots on goal −105

Why NHL Shot Volume Hunter likes it: 4.00 SOG average across six 2026 games, exactly 0.50 above the 3.5 line.

NHL Shot Volume HunterUp 14% return this season · 34 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 7-7 on this game · −13% return

  1. Detroit Red Wings to win3 models agree
    +70%Won

    Taken at −142 on DraftKings

    3 modelsNHL Ice Edge, high-confidence main markets +1
    Why 3 models like it
    NHL Ice Edge
    • 63% model probability versus 58.7% break-even at DraftKings -142.
    • Last six 5v5 Corsi: Detroit 52.3%, Philadelphia 42.5%, a 9.9-point gap.
    • Tarasov has only one current start; the .974 save rate is an extremely thin sample.
    high-confidence main markets
    • Detroit’s 52.1% 5v5 SAT rate leads Philadelphia’s 39.8%; shots favor Detroit 31.8, 20.8 per game.
    • Confirmed Daniil Tarasov owns a .974 season save percentage and 100% quality-start rate; Joseph Woll is at .914.
    • Detroit is only 1-3-2, so the early-season sample is noisy despite the underlying shot advantage.
    Scratch Tape
    • Cam York is confirmed out: 21.8 minutes/game and 12.3% of Philadelphia's defense ice time.
    • Travis Konecny (16.8 minutes/game) and Rasmus Ristolainen (18.3) are also listed out by the NHL preview.
    • The official preview has no precise publication timestamp; the out statuses may have been priced before today's lineup confirmation.
  2. Alex DeBrincat over 3.5 shots on goal2 models agree
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNHL Shot Volume Hunter, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    Why 2 models like it
    NHL Shot Volume Hunter
    • 4.00 SOG average across six 2026 games, exactly 0.50 above the 3.5 line.
    • 20:43 average TOI with 3:58 average power-play time across those six games.
    • The individual sample is only six games, not the preferred 10-game baseline.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 23 shots on goal across his last five games: 4.6 per game, 31% above the 3.5 line.
    • He cleared 3.5 in three of those five, including 7 and 6 in his two most recent games.
    • Small five-game sample; he stayed at three shots in two of those games.
  3. Detroit Red Wings spread −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on Polymarket US

    Rung SeamDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The recent scoring-margin gap is 1.6 goals: Detroit -0.8 versus Philadelphia -2.4.
    • The ladder prices Detroit 3+ at 22% versus a 29% base rate and 4+ at 9% versus 13%, supporting a coherent underpricing of favorite rungs.
    • Both sides are quoted with roughly one-cent raw spreads; the rung is not a placeholder or untraded quote.
    • The 43%/29%/13% rates are league base rates, not a game-specific model; early-season samples are thin.
  4. Tie third-period winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on Kalshi

    Late TiesUp 329% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Shrunk period-goal model gives Detroit 0.96 and Philadelphia 0.95 expected third-period goals, implying roughly a 34% tie.
    • The 2025-26 third-period rates were Detroit 1.09 for, 1.22 against and Philadelphia 0.97 for, 0.80 against; current-season noise is heavily shrunk toward those baselines.
    • Confirmed goalies Joseph Woll (.914 current save rate) and Daniil Tarasov (.974) support a lower-scoring, tighter third period.
    • The period sample is small: six Detroit games and eight Philadelphia games this season; Tarasov has only one start in the current sample.
  5. Alex DeBrincat no 1+ goal
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

    Hot Hand CoolerDown 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Trailing-10 shot average is 3.5; the candidate gate is met exactly.
    • Season shot rate is 4.0 through six games; blending rates gives roughly 3.75 expected shots.
    • Current 5v5 shooting is 17.6% versus 9.0% last season; regression plus goalie adjustment estimates a 32% goal chance.
    • DeBrincat has four goals in six games, so the hot finishing may persist rather than regress.
  6. Philadelphia Flyers to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    Backup TaxUp 65% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Joseph Woll confirmed for Philadelphia; he has 4 current-season starts plus 38 last season, clearing the recent-start gate.
    • Daniil Tarasov confirmed for Detroit and is the projected backup; his 2025-26 save rate was .8942 over 31 starts.
    • Hard-shrunk team rates: PHI was 2.95 GF/2.90 GA last season; DET was 2.94 GF/3.15 GA.
    • Philadelphia is 1.25 GF and 3.88 GA per game through its current eight-game sample.
Show all 11 picks
  1. Philadelphia Flyers over 5.5 total goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Empty Net OverDown 25% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 50/50 current-to-2025-26 rate shrink gives 5.66 goals before empty-net adjustment.
    • Adding a 0.20-goal empty-net adjustment produces a 5.86 projected total, 0.36 above 5.5.
    • Detroit is a -132 favorite; three of its six games ended in one-goal margins, supporting a lead-by-one pull scenario.
    • Philadelphia has scored only 1.25 goals per game through eight games, making a 3-0 or 3-1 low-total script plausible.
  2. Detroit Red Wings −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on Polymarket US

    Overtime TaxDown 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • DET is the stronger side by a 1.6-goal recent scoring-margin gap: -0.8 versus PHI -2.4.
    • The brief's strongest-favorite base rate puts a 2+ goal win near 43%; the contract costs 35¢.
    • The live +1.5/-1.5 pair is clean and exclusive at 66¢/35¢, summing to 1.01.
    • Starting-goalie confirmation is incomplete; the NHL preview lists candidates rather than one confirmed starter for each club.
  3. Lucas Raymond over 2.5 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +122 on FanDuel

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Raymond averages 3.0 shots on goal across six current-season games and 3.2 over his last five, 20%+ above the 2.5 line.
    • He has averaged about 20.3 minutes per game, indicating a stable top-six usage base.
    • FanDuel +122 implies about 45.0%; my estimated win probability is 54%.
    • Raymond cleared 2.5 shots in only 3 of his 6 current-season games.
  4. Joseph Woll over 26.5 saves
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected approximately 30.3 saves from 33.2 expected shots faced and Woll's .914 current-season save rate.
    • Woll is confirmed to start and has logged 26, 24, 37, and 41 saves in four starts.
    • DraftKings -120 implies roughly 54.5%; my estimated win probability is 67%.
    • Only four starts create substantial early-season sample uncertainty.
  5. Trevor Zegras under 0.5 points
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Zegras has 3 points in his last eight current-season games, averaging 0.38 versus the 0.5 line: a 25% below-line divergence.
    • He was held scoreless in five of those eight games, including each of his first three October road games.
    • Detroit has allowed just 24.33 shots per game this season, supporting a lower-event point environment.
    • A top-line role with Sean Couturier and Owen Tippett creates meaningful assist upside.

Questions

Who won Flyers vs. Red Wings?

The Red Wings won 2-1 on Thursday, Oct 15, 2026.

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