Blues vs. WildFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalGrand Casino Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| MIN | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMinnesota Wild two-way to win 57¢
Why Regulation Gap likes it: two-way Minnesota implies 56.9%; regulation Minnesota also implies 56.9%; matchup tie mass is shrunk to 22.0%.
Regulation GapDown 19% this season · 53 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-2 on this game · −42% return
- Matt Boldy 1+ goal−100%Lost
Taken at 64¢ on Kalshi
Hot Hand CoolerDown 49% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 3.8 shots per game over his last 10 (38 shots) qualifies, but produced only 3 goals.
- Season rate is similarly low: 27 shots, 2 goals, 7.4% shooting.
- Wallstedt is listed to start with a fresh-season .9325 save percentage; regression projects roughly 24% goal probability.
- Boldy is listed on Minnesota's top power-play unit, creating high-quality opportunities.
- St. Louis over 2.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Team Total SeamDown 103% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- St. Louis ladder is monotone, but its implied scoring shape is high: over 1.5 at 77.5%, over 2.5 at 56%, over 3.5 at 34%.
- The team-ladder survival sums reconcile with the game-total ladder near six goals, so this is an internal allocation disagreement, not an outside model.
- The 56% St. Louis over-2.5 rung is at least six points richer than the roughly 50% allocation implied by the sharp six-goal total and Minnesota's 56.5% moneyline share.
- The St. Louis rung is thin relative to the roughly 6,750-contract game-total market.
- Minnesota Wild two-way to win+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- two-way Minnesota implies 56.9%; regulation Minnesota also implies 56.9%; matchup tie mass is shrunk to 22.0%.
- Wild form is not contradictory: 4-2-1, 3.00 GF/game, 2.286 GA/game, 36.8% power play and 91.7% penalty kill.
- Reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; this is a related-market pricing inconsistency, not a sportsbook projection.
- The identical -132 regulation quote could be stale or mis-mapped; correction would erase the apparent gap.
Questions
Who won Blues vs. Wild?
The Wild won 5–4 on Thursday, Oct 15, 2026.