Kraken vs. LightningFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalBenchmark International Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| TB | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Top model pick, graded
WonBrandon Hagel over 3.5 shots on goal +114
Why NHL Shot Volume Hunter likes it: 4.50 SOG average across six 2026 games, clearing the 3.5 line by 1.00.
NHL Shot Volume HunterUp 14% return this season · 34 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-3 on this game · −6% return
- Brandon Hagel over 3.5 shots on goal+114%Won
Taken at +114 on FanDuel
NHL Shot Volume HunterDown 10% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 4.50 SOG average across six 2026 games, clearing the 3.5 line by 1.00.
- 21:54 average TOI and 5:21 average power-play time across the six-game sample.
- Seattle allowed 31.14 SOG/game over its last seven and 30.4 season-to-date.
- The individual baseline is six games, with only three of six clearing 3.5 despite the strong mean.
- Seattle Kraken +2.5+54%Won
Taken at 65¢ on ProphetX
Fair FenceUp 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: Tampa's 2025 regular-season margin distribution covered +2.5 in 58 of 82 games (70.7%), fair about -241.
- The six-game 2026 sample is 5-of-6 at two goals or fewer; heavily shrunk toward last season, the estimate is about 72% (fair roughly -257).
- ProphetX's -182 implies 64.5%, leaving about a 7-point projection gap before goalie uncertainty.
- Joey Daccord is still unconfirmed; Andrei Vasilevskiy is listed likely, so late goalie news can materially move the margin.
- Brandon Hagel NO 1+ point−100%Lost
Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi
Hot Hand CoolerDown 49% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Hagel recorded points in 6 of those 10 games; regression from the three-point outlier supports roughly 59% for 1+ point.
- Starting goalie Joey Daccord remains unconfirmed, and a late change could alter the matchup.
- Seattle Kraken +1.5 puck line+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
Overtime TaxDown 31% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Tampa's moneyline win probability is about 71%; a 50¢ favorite -1.5 contract implies an implausibly high 2+ goal-win rate.
- NHL one-goal games run roughly 38, 43%; Tampa's exact-one-goal wins make Seattle +1.5 materially likelier than 51%.
- Seattle is 5-2 with a +1.4 recent scoring margin, while Tampa is 4-2 at +0.2; this is not a 1.2-goal form-gap favorite.
- Starting-goalie confirmation is incomplete: Vasilevskiy is likely and Daccord remains unconfirmed.
- Seattle Kraken two-way moneyline +240−100%Lost
Taken at 29¢ on ProphetX
Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The 3.57-point mismatch clears the 3-point gate; Tampa's parallel mismatch is only 1.58 points.
- +240 is within the -250 to +300 band; this is a venue-self-reference coherence edge, not a projection.
- Starting goalies are listed but not confirmed roughly three hours before puck drop.
- Game under 6.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US
Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects 6.0 goals after early-season shrink toward the 3.136 league-average rate.
- Projected Vasilevskiy and Daccord combine for strong current save profiles: .886 and .913.
- Pinnacle's sharp total is 6.0; FanDuel/DraftKings offer 6.5, broadly supporting a low-six outcome.
- Neither goalie is confirmed; the projection could change with a late starter switch.
Questions
Who won Kraken vs. Lightning?
The Lightning won 4–3 on Thursday, Oct 15, 2026.