Flyers vs. SenatorsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalCanadian Tire Centre
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| OTT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 6.5 61¢
Why Goal Ladder likes it: Model fair 65.5%: Poisson total mean 5.70 fitted to de-vigged Pinnacle 5.5-total and moneyline prices.
Goal LadderUp 49% return this season · 51 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-6 on this game · −18% return
- Ottawa Senators −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsRung Seam, Overtime TaxWhy 2 models like it
Rung Seam- The next rungs imply OTT 3+ at 0.25 and 4+ at 0.13; the -1.5 rung is the clearest five-point seam.
- A one-goal game, overtime, or a late empty-net sequence defeats the -1.5 cover; hockey margin variance is wide.
Overtime Tax- Ottawa's moneyline market implies roughly a 62% home win probability; the -1.5 contract costs 0.38.
- The brief's strongest-favorite baseline gives about 43% for a 2+ goal win: roughly five points above this price.
- An Ottawa one-goal win, overtime win, or shootout win loses this -1.5 position.
- Ottawa Senators to win+58%Won
Taken at −172 on FanDuel
2 modelsNHL Ice Edge, THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMWhy 2 models like it
NHL Ice Edge- 13.3-point current 5v5 Corsi-share edge: Ottawa 46.5%, Philadelphia 33.0%.
- Ottawa owns a 7.0 shots-per-game edge, the HDCF fallback proxy.
- Ullmark's current .9487 save rate exceeds Woll's .9286, a meaningful goalie counterweight.
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM- Ottawa is 2-1 with 3.33 goals per game; Philadelphia is 0-2-2 with 1.25 goals per game.
- Ottawa allows 2.67 goals per game; Philadelphia allows 4.25 through the current samples.
- Both teams have only 3-4 regular-season games, so the form samples are thin.
- Game total under 6.5+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Novig
Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model fair 65.5%: Poisson total mean 5.70 fitted to de-vigged Pinnacle 5.5-total and moneyline prices.
- Novig under ladder is monotonic: 49¢ at 5.5, 61¢ at 6.5, 80¢ at 7.5.
- Philadelphia's starting goalie remains unconfirmed; sizing is reduced to 0.5u.
- Ottawa Senators puck line −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US
Spare Crease SpreadUp 46% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 47% projected cover probability from a goal-difference distribution including the +0.3 backup-goalie GA adjustment and empty-net scoring; fair price 47¢.
- Joseph Woll is confirmed for Philadelphia; official team-reset coverage frames him as Dan Vladar's supporting tandem partner, while Linus Ullmark is confirmed for Ottawa.
- Ottawa is -178 to -180 on the U.S. moneyline, clearing the -140 gate; its recent scoring margin is +0.7 versus Philadelphia's -3.0.
- Woll has a .929 save percentage and two quality starts this season, so the nominal-backup penalty may overstate the gap.
- Philadelphia Flyers–Ottawa Senators over 5.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
Scratch TapeDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Jake Sanderson is confirmed out; his 24:50 average is 8.3% of Ottawa's 300 skater-minutes.
- Polymarket US over moved only 0.5 cents, from 0.510 to 0.515, after the absence was reported.
- FanDuel and DraftKings both charge -115 on over 5.5, so Polymarket US is the cheaper quoted route.
- The 0.25-goal swing is a usage-based estimate, not a player-specific goals-against model.
- Philadelphia Flyers moneyline +162−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX
Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The 4.58-point mismatch clears the 3-point internal-coherence gate; the two-way Flyers quote is cheap against the venue's own 60-minute market.
- Philadelphia loses the leg with any regulation loss, even if it later would have benefited from an overtime path.
Show all 9 picks
- Linus Ullmark over 22.5 total saves+95%Won
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days - Goal in first 10 minutes+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi
First TenDown 22% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model: 50% goal probability; NO costs 44¢, a 6-point projection gap.
- Joseph Woll (.9286 save%) and Linus Ullmark (.9487) are both confirmed, an elite-goalie pairing.
- Kalshi shows a live 56¢/57¢ YES market with 365.73 contracts traded and 19.03 in 24 hours.
- Only three Ottawa and four Philadelphia games inform the current-season rates; the sample is thin.
- Philadelphia Flyers @ Ottawa Senators total over 5.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US
Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected mean is 5.95: Ottawa/Philadelphia scoring-defense blend gives 5.75, plus the brief's 0.20 empty-net adjustment.
- Ottawa -173 with a -1.5 puck line around +156 is a close-favorite profile, not the prohibited -300 blowout shape.
- Sharp total is 5.5, and US sportsbook over prices (-114 to -115) are slightly worse than Polymarket US.
- Early-season samples are thin: Ottawa has three games and Philadelphia four in the current form window.
Questions
Who won Flyers vs. Senators?
The Senators won 2–1 on Thursday, Oct 8, 2026.