Sharks vs. BluesFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalEnterprise Center
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJ | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame under 5.5 total goals 47¢
Why Rest Tax (NHL Kalshi) likes it: Rest check shows San Jose on three days’ rest and St. Louis on two; no fatigue adjustment is applied.
Rest Tax (NHL Kalshi)New · 3 graded so far
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-6 on this game · −40% return
- Game over 5.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on Novig
Second String ShootoutUp 39% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle 6 total at +103/-116 fits a 6.13-goal reference mean; same-line fair is about 57.8¢.
- Alex Nedeljkovic and Joel Hofer are both confirmed, and each is his team's backup behind Askarov/Binnington: +0.60 goals.
- Blues expected attempts are about 61.7, top-fifth by the early-season league distribution: +0.10 goals.
- The shot-attempt blend uses only three regular-season games per team, so the top-fifth classification is noisy.
- Jimmy Snuggerud over 2.5 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at −135 on DraftKings
NHL Shot Volume HunterDown 10% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Snuggerud averages 2.67 SOG with recent outputs of 3, 1, and 4.
- 17:36 average TOI and 3:18 average power-play time support top-nine deployment with special-teams access.
- San Jose allows 29.0 SOG per game, tied for the ninth-highest allowance rate leaguewide.
- The SOG average is just 0.17 above the line, making shot-attempt conversion important.
- Game total over 5.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Empty Net LedgerUp 41% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Shrunk shot/finishing projection produces 6.29 non-empty-net goals and 6.50 total after +0.21 empty-net adjustment.
- Pinnacle’s sharp reference total is 6.0, satisfying the 6.0-or-higher screen.
- St. Louis is the clear market favorite at -151; a one-goal late lead is the relevant empty-net pathway.
- Macklin Celebrini remains a game-time decision; his absence would reduce San Jose scoring upside.
- Game under 5.5 total goals+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
Rest Tax (NHL Kalshi)Up 118% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Rest check shows San Jose on three days’ rest and St. Louis on two; no fatigue adjustment is applied.
- Starting goalies are unconfirmed roughly 12 hours out; a backup or late goalie change can swing a 5.5 total.
- San Jose Sharks +1.5+54%Won
Taken at 65¢ on ProphetX
Fair FenceUp 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current trailing goal differential is -1.0 for both teams; last-season gap was only 0.2, keeping this in the weakest-gap bucket.
- Both starters are confirmed: Alex Nedeljkovic for San Jose and Joel Hofer for St. Louis.
- Current-season form is only three games per team; the estimate is shrunk toward last season but remains noisy.
- Game total over 6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US
Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The same 6.53 corrected mean produces an approximately 48, 49% model probability of 7+ goals.
- STL is -151 at Pinnacle, while the -1.5 puckline is +170, fitting the required close-game favorite profile.
- US books price over 6.5 at +115, +120, and Pinnacle +124, all costlier than Polymarket US's 43¢.
- A one-goal difference in the model tail is material; the 48, 49% estimate is not robust to small mean errors.
Show all 9 picks
- Game total over 5.5−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US
Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current-season rates: SJS 3.00 GF and 4.00 GA; STL 2.33 GF and 3.33 GA across three games each.
- Opposing-rate blend gives 6.33 goals; adding the desk's 0.20 empty-net correction yields a 6.53 mean.
- Pinnacle's sharp total is 6.0; US books charge -130/-132 on over 5.5, above the exchange cost.
- The current-season sample is only three games per team, so the 6.53 mean is highly noisy.
- First-period total over 3.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 4¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current three-game rates imply 6.33 full-game goals: SJS 3.00 GF/4.00 GA, STL 2.33 GF/3.33 GA.
- League nesting allocates 28.6% of expected goals to period one, producing a first-period mean near 1.81.
- Only three games of current-season form make the rate estimate highly unstable.
- Mason McTavish over 0.5 points+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 3.227 5v5 points per 60 leads the Blues' priced players in this matchup.
- NHL.com's projected lineup places McTavish in St. Louis's top six against a Sharks defense that allowed 3.54 goals per game last season.
- PrizePicks lists McTavish for this game at the 0.5-point projection; board participation and projected lineup clear availability.
- Three-game sample is thin; both points came at 5v5 and current shooting rates are volatile.
Questions
Who won Sharks vs. Blues?
The Sharks won 3–2 on Thursday, Oct 8, 2026.