Mammoth vs. BruinsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalTD Garden
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| BOS | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
Top model pick, graded
WonJeremy Swayman over 24.5 total saves −118
Crease WorkloadUp 16% return this season · 87 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-4 on this game · −35% return
- Jeremy Swayman over 24.5 total saves+85%Won
Taken at −118 on FanDuel
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days - Utah Mammoth −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX
Scratch ShiftDown 56% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Charlie McAvoy is absent from Boston's confirmed six-defense lineup; the live injury feed lists his suspension through Oct. 13.
- McAvoy averaged 24.4 minutes, 61 points and 111 shots in 69 regular-season games last season; his 11 goals were 5.2% of Boston's 210.
- Boston's Jeremy Swayman is confirmed in goal; Boston last played Oct. 5 and Utah Oct. 6, so neither team is on a back-to-back.
- McAvoy's suspension may have been known before the Oct. 7 venue opening, so the timing component could already be partly absorbed.
- Boston Bruins spread +1.5+45%Won
Taken at 69¢ on Polymarket US
Fair DogDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Goal-margin fit projects Utah win by 2+ at 27.5%; Boston +1.5 fair cover is 72.5%.
- US sportsbook references price Boston +1.5 around -236 to -250, so Polymarket US is the cheaper dog price.
- The +1.5 rung is preferred to Boston +2.5, whose 80¢ price does not clear the 4% fair-price hurdle.
- Utah has opened 3-1 with a +2.25 goal margin over four games; that early attack sample can produce a multi-goal win.
- Utah Mammoth to win−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 days - Nick Schmaltz over 0.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at −160 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 4 points in 4 games this season; his season line is 7 points in 4 games.
- Schmaltz has scored in all four games, including 3 points Tuesday at New Jersey.
- Projected first-line role with Clayton Keller and Vincent Trocheck; 18.2 minutes per game and 3 power-play points.
- Four-game sample is thin and early-season scoring rates can regress sharply.
- Game first-period total under 3.5 goals+23%Won
Taken at 81¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent four-game first-period rates imply 1.63 matchup goals: UTA 1.25 GF/0.50 GA, BOS 0.75 GF/0.75 GA.
- Recent full-game rates are 5.5 goals; the full-game market centers near 6, nesting the first-period mean around 1.7, 1.8.
- The first-period ladder is monotone, both sides are quoted, and the Under 3.5 contract has a tight 0.01 displayed spread.
- The team-rate sample is only four games per side and may not represent true scoring strength.
Show all 7 picks
- Under 6.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Novig
Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model fair is 60.6% under 6.5: independent Poisson total mean 6.0 fitted to Pinnacle's de-vigged 6-goal total and 46.3% Boston moneyline.
- Novig total ladder is monotonic from 4.5 through 9.5; both sides of 6.5 are live and best-price stake exceeds $200.
- Boston's current form is 2.25 GF/game and Utah's is 4.25, but the fitted market total remains the sharper baseline.
- Utah's starting goalie remains unconfirmed; Boston's Jeremy Swayman is reported confirmed, so this is size-reduced to 0.5u.
Questions
Who won Mammoth vs. Bruins?
The Bruins won 6–1 on Thursday, Oct 8, 2026.