Oilers vs. MammothFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalDelta Center
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| UTAH | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 7.5 total goals 32¢
Why Goal Ladder likes it: Poisson fit to Pinnacle's de-vigged moneyline and 6.5 total gives 36.4% fair probability for 8+ goals.
Goal LadderUp 49% return this season · 51 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-2 on this game · +34% return
- Over 7.5 total goals+213%Won
Taken at 32¢ on Novig
Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Poisson fit to Pinnacle's de-vigged moneyline and 6.5 total gives 36.4% fair probability for 8+ goals.
- The total ladder is monotonic from 6.5 through 9.5, supporting internal coherence.
- Utah's starting goalie is unconfirmed; only Edmonton's Tristan Jarry is confirmed in the official preview.
- Utah Mammoth to win−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Fade the GoalieDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Tristan Jarry is confirmed for Edmonton and has a .8372 save percentage through two starts on 43 shots.
- Utah's last five show a .5522 5v5 shot-attempt share, fifth of 32, plus a three-goal differential.
- Pinnacle is -134 on Utah; ProphetX is -132, while ProphetX moved from -134 to -132 rather than chasing shorter.
- Jarry's sample is only two starts; his other outing was a .950 save-percentage performance.
- Connor McDavid under 3.5 shots on goal+67%Won
Taken at −150 on DraftKings
Frozen FrenzyDown 19% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected mean 2.5 SOG after a 0.95 second-night travel adjustment; negative-binomial P(under 3.5) is 71%.
- McDavid stayed under 3.5 in 5 of 7 current-season games and 7 of his last 10.
- The SOG market was unchanged at Pinnacle from 11:55 AM through 4:55 PM, with no sharp negative steam against the under.
- No confirmed power-play pairings were published; the NHL preview provides projected lines only, so conviction is capped at medium.
- Karel Vejmelka under 23.5 saves+89%Won
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 22.3 saves per appearance: 141 saves on 157 shots across seven games.
- Four of Vejmelka’s five recent starts stayed below 23.5 saves.
- Edmonton averaged 22.7 shots across its last six games, below the 24.7 season rate.
- save performance in his recent five-start sample shows meaningful upside variance.
- Clayton Keller over 0.5 assists−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 5 assists in Keller's last 5 games; he recorded an assist in 4 of those 5.
- Season lead: 8 assists in 8 games, materially above the 0.5 projection.
- Utah averages 3.86 goals per game and just beat Edmonton 4-2, supporting assist opportunity.
- Edmonton's 5-1-1 start indicates a capable defensive opponent and Keller had no assist in one of his last five.
Questions
Who won Oilers vs. Mammoth?
The Oilers won 6–2 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.