Penguins vs. Golden KnightsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalT-Mobile Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| VGK | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
Top model pick, graded
WonEvgeni Malkin over 1.5 shots on goal −130
Why Frozen Frenzy likes it: Projected mean is about 2.15 SOG after TOI, opponent, script, and 0.95 road-back-to-back adjustments; NB P(over) ≈ 60%.
Frozen FrenzyDown 15% this season · 23 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-4 on this game · −27% return
- Pittsburgh Penguins +2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 68¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsRung Seam, Fair DogWhy 2 models like it
Rung Seam- 2.5 is priced at 33¢ versus the 29% 3+ win base rate for the strongest form gaps: a 4-point seam.
- Ladder checks: VGK -1.5 is 45¢, -2.5 is 33¢, and -3.5 is 16¢; only the middle rung misses the margin benchmark by the required 4 points.
- Pittsburgh is 1-4 in its last five while Vegas is 4-1, with recent scoring-margin form favoring Vegas by 2.8 goals per game.
Fair Dog- Model estimates Vegas win by 2+ at 43% and by 3+ at 28%, consistent with strongest-favorite base rates.
- Sharp anchors are Vegas -201 and a 6.5 total; the margin model is fitted to both rather than raw recent results.
- Goaltender reporting conflicts: NHL.com lists Arturs Silovs, while Yahoo lists Sergei Murashov for Pittsburgh; either change can move the margin.
- Evgeni Malkin over 1.5 shots on goal+77%Won
Taken at −130 on DraftKings
Frozen FrenzyDown 19% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected mean is about 2.15 SOG after TOI, opponent, script, and 0.95 road-back-to-back adjustments; NB P(over) ≈ 60%.
- Malkin averages 2.25 SOG and 18.2 minutes across 8 games; he cleared 1.5 in 5 of 8.
- Projected PP1 role with Crosby, Rakell, Karlsson, and Kindel creates roughly 3.25 recent PP minutes per game.
- Pittsburgh is playing the second night of a road back-to-back; the fatigue adjustment is already applied but could still reduce late ice time.
- Pittsburgh Penguins @ Vegas Golden Knights over 6.5+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Empty Net OverDown 25% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- shrink-blended team rates imply 6.52 goals before the empty-net adjustment.
- Empty-net adjustment of +0.34 raises the projection to 6.86, 0.36 above 6.5.
- Vegas is a -200 favorite; its recent results include four one-goal scripts in nine games.
- Starting goalies remain unconfirmed: Arturs Silovs and Carter Hart are listed, but neither start was confirmed.
- Vegas Golden Knights to win+49%Won
Taken at 67¢ on Polymarket US
Cohort CheckDown 26% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Vegas averages 4.00 goals and 2.44 allowed; Pittsburgh averages 3.38 scored and 3.38 allowed.
- Adin Hill is confirmed for Vegas; Sergei Murashov is reported confirmed for Pittsburgh.
- Early-season samples are only 8-9 games, so both team-rate estimates are noisy.
- Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Novig
Dog CushionDown 10% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Trailing-25 goal differential: Vegas +0.92, Pittsburgh +0.08; favorite gap is 0.84.
- The brief's 0.8, 1.2 gap bucket makes Pittsburgh +1.5 fair at 61.0%.
- Pinnacle's same-line -132/+117 prices devig to approximately 55.3% for Pittsburgh +1.5, with no 3-point disagreement.
- The 39% favorite-by-2+ base rate is a coarse reference, not a matchup-specific model.
- Game total under 6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
Morning PuckDown 26% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Polymarket US under 6.5 costs 48c with a live 1-cent underlying spread; both sides are quoted.
- Pinnacle's 6.5 total is -119 over / +106 under; devigged under probability is about 47.2%.
- A shrunk Poisson model using 3.14 league goals per team and the teams' early rates projects roughly 6.3 total goals.
- Neither probable goalie is officially confirmed six hours before puck drop; a late change could materially alter the total.
Questions
Who won Penguins vs. Golden Knights?
The Golden Knights won 6-2 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.