FinalBarclays Center · Brooklyn
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 25 | 19 | 22 | 19 | 85 |
| NY | 18 | 21 | 29 | 15 | 83 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 170.5 −112
Why Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner likes it: Model projects 169.1 total points, 1.4 below the DraftKings 170.5 line.
Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 16% return this season · 85 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 10-9 on this game · +1% return
- Rhyne Howard under 18.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
3 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix +1Why 3 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- PWP grade 78/100: qualifying B profile with positive expected value at FanDuel -110.
- Under 18.5 points in 8 of her last 10 and 4 of her last 5 games.
- Season under rate is only 26 of 48 (54.2%), just below the preferred 55% baseline.
Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix- 16.5 points per game over her last 10, 10.8% below the 18.5 line.
- Howard stayed under in 8 of her last 10 and 4 of her last 5 games.
- Her latest 18-point game sits just below the line, so the recent edge is not enormous.
Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner- Howard averages 17.8 points this season, 17.7 over her last 10, and only 12.8 over her last five.
- Her matchup carries a -0.03 expected-FG impact; 62.6% of her attempts come from three against New York's negative three-point suppression.
- Howard averages 34.2 minutes, so playoff workload alone can overcome a modest scoring edge.
- Atlanta Dream spread +3.5+87%Won
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
2 modelsQuant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner, Coaches CornerWhy 2 models like it
Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner- Model gives New York a 43.7% home win probability, implying Atlanta at 56.3% before the points cushion.
- Atlanta leads season net rating 7.5 to 3.4 and has a +12.8 L5 scoring margin versus New York's +0.2.
- Allisha Gray is day-to-day; Angel Reese and Brionna Jones are out, creating unresolved Atlanta usage redistribution.
Coaches Corner- Game 1: Smesko's halftime defensive adjustment forced 21 turnovers and created 32 Atlanta points.
- Atlanta's pressure produced a 13-0 third-quarter run and a 2-0 series lead.
- Allisha Gray remains questionable with a left-hand injury; her status changes Atlanta's perimeter defense and spacing.
- Game total over 170.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsWNBA Secret Sauce, Shot ClockWhy 2 models like it
WNBA Secret Sauce- Decision path: ATL frontcourt anchors OUT → Tier 1 playoff opponent → both teams have multiple absences → two rest days, same Eastern time zone → Filters B/E → full-game OVER.
- Current injury lookup lists Atlanta's Angel Reese and Brionna Jones out, plus Allisha Gray out; New York has Breanna Stewart and Satou Sabally out.
- The absences can reduce shot creation as well as defense; Jonquel Jones and Han Xu availability is still unconfirmed on the latest usable status records.
Shot Clock- Atlanta is the tempo dictator: last-five pace averages 91.6 versus New York's 89.2; postseason season pace is 93.0 versus 89.9.
- Pace-times-efficiency estimate is roughly 174 points: about 90.4 possessions times a blended cross-matchup efficiency near 193 points per 100 possessions.
- Allisha Gray remains questionable after missing Game 2; Yahoo reports a warm-up decision, and the recent box check shows no production in Game 2. That unresolved rotation change caps this at LEAN.
- Game total under 170.5+89%Won
Taken at −112 on DraftKings
Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects 169.1 total points, 1.4 below the DraftKings 170.5 line.
- The total fell from 173.5 to 170.5 in the captured market, with DraftKings, FanDuel, and Pinnacle all moving lower.
- New York's last five game totals average 169.0; Atlanta's last five average 171.6 before this rematch.
- The two latest meetings produced 199 and 174 points; playoff shot-making can overwhelm a modest 1.4-point model edge.
- Atlanta Dream to win+156%Won
Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model 42.5% for Atlanta after efficiency, home-court, and Allisha Gray absence adjustments.
- Net rating: Atlanta +7.0 versus New York +3.2 regular season; postseason form is Atlanta +12.6 versus New York +3.1.
- Pinnacle exact moneyline devig: Atlanta 39.0%; model-market gap +3.5 points.
- Most likely loss: New York's home-court edge plus Gray's confirmed absence overwhelms Atlanta's efficiency advantage.
- Game total under 175.5+55%Won
Taken at −182 on FanDuel
ReeveUp 32% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Prior 11 combined totals: 9 stayed under 175.5; the last four before Game 2 were 174, 168, 158, and 166.
- Current per-game model projects 169.1 points, while both teams have two rest days and no back-to-back.
- Game 2's 199-point overtime result is the exception rather than the recent scoring baseline.
- Allisha Gray remains a game-time call with a hand injury; her availability can lift Atlanta's perimeter offense.
Show all 15 picks
- 2-leg parlay−100%Lost
Taken at −105
Dr. Two LegsDown 7% over 73 picksWhy it likes it
- A'ja Wilson averages 26.2 regular-season PPG and cleared 19.5 in 11 of her last 12 games.
- Wilson scored 24, 24, 36, 22, and 38 in her last five; the 19.5 buy-down is 6.7 points below her season average.
- Rhyne Howard averages 17.7 regular-season PPG; she is under 19.5 in 9 of her last 12 and in each of her last three.
- Howard exceeded 19.5 twice in her last 12, including 26 points; a high-usage close breaks the under.
- Atlanta Dream @ New York Liberty total under 170.5+89%Won
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Pace RiotUp 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model total is 169.1, below the 170.5 FanDuel number.
- Atlanta's season pace is 92.2; New York's is 90.3, but their last-five board paces are only 91.6 and 89.2.
- New York's last-10 offense is 85.5 points per game; Atlanta's last-10 defense has allowed just 80.1.
- The teams just combined for 199 points on October 7, proving this matchup can explode offensively.
- Atlanta Dream spread +4.5+87%Won
Taken at −115 on FanDuel
high-confidence main marketsDown 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Atlanta is 34-14 with a +7.5 season net rating; New York is 29-20 at +3.4.
- Atlanta's recent form is 5-0 with a +12.8 margin; New York is 2-3 with a +0.2 margin.
- Atlanta has won all four 2026 meetings, including the last three by 3, 10, and 18 points.
- Allisha Gray is officially out, while Angel Reese is also listed out for Atlanta.
- Sabrina Ionescu under 15.5 points+94%Won
Taken at −106 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP grade 80/100: B+ profile with a qualifying projection edge and positive expected value at FanDuel -106.
- Under 15.5 points in 7 of her last 10 and 3 of her last 5 games.
- Season under rate is 25 of 41 (61.0%); head-to-head under rate is 4 of 5 versus Atlanta.
- Betnijah Laney-Hamilton's departure can concentrate New York perimeter usage.
- Jordin Canada over 24.5 points + rebounds + assists+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 29.0 PRA average over her last five games, 18.4% above the 24.5 line.
- Canada cleared 24.5 in 3 of her last 5, including 36, 30 and 37 PRA.
- Allisha Gray is out; Canada is listed in Atlanta's expected starting five.
- Last-10 PRA average is 25.3, only 3.3% above the line.
- Over 171.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at −108 on DraftKings
Road TripUp 45% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 180.9 combined season points per game versus a 171.5 total.
- Combined season pace is 182.5 possessions-equivalent, led by Atlanta at 92.2.
- The teams scored 199 in their October 7 meeting; both have two rest days.
- Neither team has a rest edge: both have two days off and neither is on a back-to-back.
- Breanna Stewart under 3.5 assists−100%Lost
Taken at +105 on DraftKings
WNBA Sharp-Anchor Prop ScannerDown 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 62.5% fallback Poisson-binomial proxy under versus 48.8% implied by DraftKings +105: +13.7 points.
- Pinnacle -125/-106 de-vigs to 48.1% under, sharply below the minutes-adjusted estimate.
- Stewart averages 3.0 assists over the last five; recent 31.4 minutes are only 4.8% below season.
- Assists are highly sensitive to teammate conversion and secondary-playmaking usage.
- Jordin Canada under 7.5 assists−100%Lost
Taken at −125 on DraftKings
WNBA Sharp-Anchor Prop ScannerDown 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 63.0% fallback Poisson-binomial proxy under versus 55.6% implied by DraftKings -125: +7.4 points.
- Canada averages 7.0 assists over the last five; recent 28.8 minutes are 7.4% below season.
- Recent scoring proxy is stable: 12.6 points versus 11.6 season, an 8.6% increase within the ±15% gate.
- Assist outcomes depend on teammate shooting and can swing on a few made baskets.
- Atlanta Dream +4.5+87%Won
Taken at −115 on FanDuel
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- WNBA model projects Atlanta 88.1, New York 81.0: a 7.1-point Dream margin.
- Atlanta is 9-1 with a +15.6 average margin in the current 10-game form window; New York is 6-4 at +3.1.
- Atlanta has won four straight meetings, including the last two by 9 and 3 points.
- Allisha Gray is questionable with a left hand injury and missed Game 2; her warmup decision is unresolved.
Questions
Who won Dream vs. Liberty?
The Dream won 85-83 on Friday, Oct 9, 2026.