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FinalMichelob ULTRA Arena · Las Vegas
Valkyries
87–77Final
Aces
Score by period
Team12345T
GS162017181687
LV1926719677

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 156.5 −110

Why Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner likes it: Model total 158.5, two points above the live 156.5 market.

Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 16% return this season · 85 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 17-1 on this game · +1904% return

  1. Game total over 156.55 models agree
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    5 modelsQuant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner, Pace Riot +3
    Why 5 models like it
    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner
    • Model total 158.5, two points above the live 156.5 market.
    • Pinnacle moved its total from 156.5 to 157, a modest market signal toward the over.
    • Jewell Loyd is questionable and Stephanie Talbot only probable; final availability could reduce scoring.
    Pace Riot
    • Model projects 158.5 points, two above DraftKings' 156.5.
    • Season pace: Aces 90.4 possessions, Valkyries 86.1; this is not a dead-possession matchup.
    • Valkyries' 87.1 season defensive rating and 87.5 board rating can choke this game below expectation.
    Reeve
    • Las Vegas averages a 177.3 game total and 90.7 pace; home scoring averages 90.0 points.
    • Aces starters played 36, 37, and 39 minutes in Game 2, a compressed rotation that raises late defensive-decay risk.
    • Fresh matchup board shows negative expected eFG shifts for both offenses: Las Vegas -0.04 and Golden State -0.03.
    Shot Clock
    • Las Vegas is 86.68 possessions over its last five versus 89.9 season pace; Golden State is 84.36 versus 85.8.
    • Las Vegas has the higher recent pace and is the likelier tempo dictator; combined pace read is approximately 85.5 possessions.
    • Stephanie Talbot remains questionable; an unresolved rotation-changing status caps this at LEAN and could lower efficiency or tempo.
  2. 2-leg parlayLong shot2 models agree
    +32900%Won

    Taken at +32900

    2 modelsParlay Lab, Dr. Two Legs
    Why 2 models like it
    Parlay Lab
    • Louisville at 62.41¢: 90.1 team grade versus Florida State's 81.9, with an 82.9, 66.8 defensive-grade edge.
    • Golden State at 37.31¢: Valkyries have a +8.1 season net rating versus Las Vegas's +5.2 and won the last two meetings.
    • Louisville is only 2-3 and Florida State has won its last two games by a combined 58 points.
    Dr. Two Legs
    • A'ja Wilson averages 26.2 regular-season PPG and cleared 19.5 in 11 of her last 12 games.
    • Wilson scored 24, 24, 36, 22, and 38 in her last five; the 19.5 buy-down is 6.7 points below her season average.
    • Howard exceeded 19.5 twice in her last 12, including 26 points; a high-usage close breaks the under.
  3. Golden State Valkyries spread +3.5
    +98%Won

    Taken at −102 on DraftKings

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model gives Las Vegas a 45.3% home win probability, versus the market's roughly 51.1% home baseline; Golden State is the value side with the cushion.
    • Golden State leads season net rating 8.1 to 5.2 and owns a +6.6 L5 margin versus Las Vegas at +1.0.
    • Golden State won the two latest meetings, 83-81 and 71-60, both at home.
    • Jewell Loyd and Stephanie Talbot are day-to-day, so the Aces' final rotation and usage redistribution remain unconfirmed.
  4. Over 157 total
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total 158.5 versus ProphetX's 157 rung: 1.5-point power-rating gap.
    • Postseason scoring: Las Vegas 85.2/84.2 and Golden State 87.0/80.4 points for/against.
    • Projected pace is 85.26; current postseason pace is 86.7 for Las Vegas and 84.4 for Golden State.
    • Most likely loss: the semifinal rematch slows or shoots poorly and finishes below 157.
  5. Golden State Valkyries +4.5
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Game 2: Valkyries reserves outscored the Aces second unit 34-14; Nakase's rotation depth is the clearest tactical edge.
    • Nine Valkyries reached double-digit minutes in Game 2, supporting a broader trusted rotation in a short-rest playoff turnaround.
    • Golden State answered Las Vegas's late lead with back-to-back clutch baskets and won Game 2, 83-81.
    • Hammon has a full game to counter the bench mismatch and may shorten Las Vegas's rotation after the 34-14 reserve deficit.
  6. Las Vegas Aces over 76.5 team pointsFavorite
    +49%Won

    Taken at 67¢ on Kalshi

    WNBA Secret SauceUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchor node: A'ja Wilson has no current injury flag; Valkyries defensive anchor Gabby Williams is listed OUT.
    • Opponent caliber: Golden State is a Tier 2 playoff opponent, but its defensive personnel is materially thinned.
    • Depth branch: Golden State has four listed outs; Las Vegas has three outs, with Talbot probable and Loyd questionable.
    • Las Vegas scored only 60 and 81 in the two prior series games; this clears 76.5 only once.
Show all 13 picks
  1. Game total under 167.5
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX

    Third Quarter RunUp 49% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 158.5 points at 85.26 expected pace, well below the 167.5 rung.
    • Current total is 62 with 5:39 left in Q2; 105.5 more points are needed to beat 167.5.
    • Aces live defense is 96.6; Valkyries live offense is 100.4, a direct scoring-efficiency drag.
    • Only 17:21 of live action is a small sample, and Valkyries live defense is 114.7.
  2. A'ja Wilson under 10.5 rebounds
    +77%Won

    Taken at −130 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 9 of Wilson's last 10 games stayed under 10.5 rebounds.
    • Her last-five under rate is 80%; postseason average is 9.2 rebounds.
    • Last-10 average is 8.9, a 15.2% gap below the 10.5 line.
    • rebound outlier occurred on September 27.
  3. A'ja Wilson under 27.5 points
    +83%Won

    Taken at −120 on DraftKings

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wilson averages 26.5 points this season and 25.9 over her last 10, below the 27.5 threshold.
    • Her matchup carries a -0.04 expected-FG impact, including -0.04 paint suppression from Golden State.
    • Wilson scored 24 points in each of the two latest meetings with Golden State.
    • Wilson's L5 average is 27.6, and increased Aces usage is possible if Loyd or Talbot sits.
  4. Golden State Valkyries total over 156.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Road TripUp 45% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season scoring sum is 173.5 points, 17 above the posted 156.5.
    • Combined pace markers total 176.5; Las Vegas shoots 48.5% overall and 35.9% from three.
    • Both teams have two listed rest days and no back-to-back; travel is the only modest drag.
    • Combined opponent scoring allowed is 161.5, reflecting two strong defensive profiles.
  5. Gabby Williams under 19.5 points
    +85%Won

    Taken at −118 on DraftKings

    WNBA Sharp-Anchor Prop ScannerDown 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 79.0% conservative fallback distribution under versus 54.1% implied by DraftKings -118: +24.9 points.
    • Pinnacle +104/-137 de-vigs to 54.1% under; the soft price remains materially above the model's fair line.
    • Williams averages 14.2 points over the last five; recent 26.0 minutes are 3.6% above season.
    • point playoff outing shows a real upper-tail outcome above this number.
  6. Chelsea Gray under 5.5 assists
    +108%Won

    Taken at +108 on DraftKings

    WNBA Sharp-Anchor Prop ScannerDown 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 55.0% fallback Poisson-binomial proxy under versus 48.1% implied by DraftKings +108: +6.9 points.
    • Pinnacle -160/+120 de-vigs to 42.5% under, making the soft plus-money price notable despite disagreement.
    • Gray averages 5.2 assists over the last five; recent 30.4 minutes are 7.3% below season.
    • The model is only modestly above the soft price and the line is close to her recent average.
  7. Golden State Valkyries to win
    +160%Won

    Taken at +160 on DraftKings

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model makes Golden State 54.7% to win; +160 implies only 38.5%.
    • Golden State's season net rating is +8.1 versus Las Vegas at +5.2.
    • Recent form favors Golden State: +6.6 average margin over five versus Las Vegas at +1.0.
    • The model vintage is September 25 and was trained on regular-season games, not playoffs.

Questions

Who won Valkyries vs. Aces?

The Valkyries won 87-77 on Friday, Oct 9, 2026.

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