How did the Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals?
With defense. Golden State held Atlanta far below its usual shooting, as it had all season, and Atlanta's streaky threes and home court decided the close games.
Golden State won four close games and lost three by double digits
Valkyries4-3 · outscored 472-500All seven games as a table
| Game | Date | Site | Score | Atlanta eFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oct. 17 | Golden State | GS 68, ATL 64 | 35.9% |
| 2 | Oct. 19 | Golden State | ATL 79, GS 65 | 39.5% |
| 3 | Oct. 21 | Atlanta | ATL 97, GS 71 | 55.8% |
| 4 | Oct. 24 | Atlanta | GS 67, ATL 62 | 37.0% |
| 5 | Oct. 26 | Golden State | GS 64, ATL 55 | 33.8% |
| 6 | Oct. 29 | Atlanta | ATL 80, GS 69 | 54.0% |
| 7 | Oct. 31 | Golden State | GS 68, ATL 63 | 37.7% |
The Golden State Valkyries won the title while being outscored by 28 points. Their four wins came by a combined 23. Atlanta's three came by 51, and Game 3 alone was a 26-point loss.
The defense was real: Atlanta shot 42.1% eFG against Golden State all season, far below its 50.5% overall. Which games Golden State won came down to Atlanta's threes and home court.
Atlanta shot well three times and lost the other four
Atlanta's effective field goal rate (eFG, which counts a three as 1.5 makes) swung by game. Golden State won four of the five games Atlanta shot under 40% and lost both games it shot over 50%.
Atlanta's shooting decided which games Golden State won
- In Golden State's four wins, Atlanta shot 36.1% eFG and 20 of 104 from three (19.2%).
- In Atlanta's three wins, it shot 50.0% eFG and 29 of 77 from three (37.7%).
- Golden State shot 40.0% eFG either way. Its own shooting did not decide a game; Atlanta's did.
Golden State held Atlanta to 42.1% in the summer and again in the Finals
The Valkyries had the WNBA's best defense in 2026 (87.1 points allowed per 100 possessions) and played at its slowest pace. They held opponents to 47.8% eFG, against a league rate of 51.5%, and Atlanta lower still.
Atlanta's shooting against Golden State didn't move. Golden State's did.
- The defense was the constant. Atlanta shot 42.1% against Golden State in the regular season and in the Finals, 8.4 points under its 50.5% overall. Golden State won 7 of their 10 meetings.
- The offense was the change. Janelle Salaun (12.7 points a game in the regular season) played 24 Finals minutes, none in the last three games.
Golden State walled off the rim and let Atlanta shoot threes
In Golden State's four wins, Atlanta made fewer than one in five threes and struggled near the basket too. In Games 1, 4 and 7 it made 15 of 31 shots within 4 feet (48%); the league made 65.1% in the regular season. (Game 5's shot locations are recorded off center, so it is left out.)
In Golden State's wins, Atlanta missed near the basket and from deep
| Zone | FG | Pct | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Within 4 feet | 15/31 | 48.4% | 65.1% |
| Other twos | 36/88 | 40.9% | 40.9% |
| Threes | 12/71 | 16.9% | 33.7% |
- Golden State blocked 32 shots in its four wins and 15 in its three losses. It averaged 4.0 blocks a game in the regular season.
- Even in Atlanta's own wins (Games 2, 3 and 6), it made only 54% within 4 feet (32 of 59), well under the league's 65.1%. Rim protection held all series.
Both: the defense set the level, Atlanta's streaky threes picked the games
Golden State kept Atlanta's threes down all year: 28.1% in the three regular-season meetings and 27.1% across the Finals, against 32.5% for Atlanta overall. Inside the series, the misses bunched up. At a 28% rate, Atlanta would have made about 29 of its 104 threes in Golden State's wins, not 20: about 7 points a game, more than the margin in three of those games.
Atlanta's three-point shooting swung the most between wins and losses
- The level was defense; the split was noise. Atlanta's 20 of 104 in Golden State's wins is about 2 standard deviations below its rate against Golden State, and its 29 of 77 in its own wins is about 2 above.
- Home court mattered. Home teams went 5-2. Golden State, the No. 2 seed (32-12), had four home games to No. 4 Atlanta's three, and won three of them, including Game 7.
- The margin is mostly one game. Without Game 3, Golden State was outscored by 2 over six games.
Williams carried the offense, Stokes the rim, Reese the swings
30points in Game 7, 28 after halftime- Her playoff usage rate rose to 32.3% from 28.9%, with true shooting of .450 in the Finals vs .506 in the regular season: volume over efficiency.
- Her 31-foot three with 2:18 left in Game 7 broke a 57-57 tie, and Golden State led the rest of the way.
19blocks in seven games
22.0points a game in Atlanta wins, on 22-of-46 shooting- After her 21-point Game 3, she shot 12 of 45 (27%) over the last four games.
- Atlanta was without forward Brionna Jones, out since a left leg injury on Aug. 13.
Coverage credits the defense and Williams. The data adds the threes.
- ESPN's Alexa Philippou (Oct. 31) on Game 7: Golden State won by "holding Atlanta to 33% shooting, including 20% from behind the 3-point arc," and Williams' "28 in the second half were the most in any half of a postseason game in WNBA history."
- ESPN's Kendra Andrews (Nov. 1) describes the identity Natalie Nakase and general manager Ohemaa Nyanin built as "scrappy, defensive-minded, no egos."
What the data adds: the defense set Atlanta's level, in the regular season and the Finals alike. Which games Golden State won came down to Atlanta's streaky threes and home court, and it won the title while being outscored by more than any champion in our data, which starts in 2019.
Both teams project as good again, and too close to separate
In our data, which starts in 2019, a team's net rating explains about a quarter of the variation in its next season's win rate. On that basis Golden State and Atlanta both project around 60%.
Both teams project near a 60% win rate in 2027
Valkyries2026 net rating +8.2Dream2026 net rating +7.0- Defense carries over less than offense: defensive rating correlates 0.33 with the next season, offensive rating 0.48. Golden State's has held for two years (88.8 in 2025, 87.1 in 2026).
- What the projection ignores: free agency, the return of Iliana Rupert and Brionna Jones, and a Golden State offense that ranked 9th of 15 teams.
Questions people ask
Who won the 2026 WNBA Finals?
The Golden State Valkyries beat the Atlanta Dream 4-3, winning Game 7 68-63 at home on Oct. 31, 2026, for the franchise's first WNBA title.
Who was the 2026 WNBA Finals MVP?
Gabby Williams of the Golden State Valkyries. She averaged 19.6 points and scored 30 in Game 7, 28 of them after halftime.
Were the Valkyries outscored in the 2026 WNBA Finals?
Yes, 500 to 472. Their four wins came by a combined 23 points and their three losses by 51. In our data, which starts in 2019, the 2022 Aces (by 5) are the only other champion outscored in the Finals.
How did the Valkyries beat the Dream?
With defense. Golden State held Atlanta to 42.1% eFG and 27.1% from three in the Finals, the same level as in their regular-season meetings. Atlanta's threes were coldest in Golden State's four wins (19.2%).
How we did this: Snapp's WNBA warehouse (box scores, team game logs, play-by-play, injury reports), 2026 regular season and playoffs through Game 7 on Oct. 31, 2026. Our data starts in 2019. Effective field goal rate = (FG + 0.5 × 3PM) / FGA. Turnover rate = turnovers / (FGA + 0.44 × FTA + turnovers). Per-100 ratings average both teams' possession counts, which differ slightly in the source. Shots near the basket: field goal attempts within 4 feet of the hoop by play-by-play shot location, blocked shots counted as misses; the league made 65.1% of these in the 2026 regular season (62.0% in the playoffs). This is the same definition our Angel Reese article uses. Game 5's coordinates sit off center (no Atlanta attempt plots within 4 feet), so within-4-feet figures for Golden State's wins use Games 1, 4 and 7. Three-point totals in the text come from the box score; the shot-chart table uses play-by-play, which lists slightly different attempts. Shot chart: whole-foot coordinates with the hoop at (0, 0). Projection: a linear fit of next-season win rate on net rating, 85 team seasons from 2019 to 2026; typical miss = mean absolute error. Finals MVP and quotes from the linked coverage.