FinalRose Bowl
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUR | 7 | 14 | 13 | 4 | 38 |
| UCLA | 21 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 52 |
Top model pick, graded
WonUCLA Bruins 1H spread NO 9.5 55¢
Why Early Cover likes it: 2,998 completed FBS games (2023, 26) produce full-game margin SD 15.22; sqrt-half scaling gives 10.77.
Early CoverDown 3% this season · 435 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-8 on this game · −34% return
- Purdue Boilermakers spread +140%Push
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsHouse Rules, Key Number CFBWhy 2 models like it
House Rules- Purdue +14 pushes on exactly a 14-point UCLA win; Purdue +13.5 loses.
- point UCLA win is a push, returning stake rather than producing profit.
Key Number CFB- Current Purdue offense averages +0.24 EPA/play with +15.1% PROE; its passing grade is 86.7.
- UCLA's current defense allows -0.11 EPA/play and its coverage grade is 82.5; efficient stops can create a runaway.
- UCLA Bruins 1H spread NO 9.5+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2,998 completed FBS games (2023, 26) produce full-game margin SD 15.22; sqrt-half scaling gives 10.77.
- EPA/pace inputs imply roughly a 12.9-point full-game UCLA edge; blended with Pinnacle -13.5 gives a 6.6-point first-half mean.
- Pinnacle’s full-game UCLA -13.5 agrees with the projected half mean; no cross-rung comparison used.
- Only two 2026 games per team; EPA projection and opponent adjustment remain thin.
- Purdue Boilermakers to win−100%Lost
Taken at +480 on FanDuel
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Purdue averages +0.24 EPA/play and 0.55 success rate; UCLA averages +0.08 and 0.48.
- Ryan Browne has 646 passing yards, 4 TDs, and 0 interceptions through two games.
- UCLA has four official Game Day DB outs, plus two starting wideouts listed out.
- The model edge is only 4.09 points, barely above the 4-point gate.
- Game total under 52.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- under 52.5 wins at exactly 52; adjacent under 52 pushes there.
- ProphetX is the only price reference here; the exchange quote can move before acceptance.
- UCLA −16.5−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Directional check: backing UCLA, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Only two measures support UCLA; book-level count ties rather than corroborating with more levels.
- Game total over 53+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Density supports the rung: 51-point games occurred 344 times and 55-point games 403 times; over 53 captures 54+ and the elevated 55 cluster.
- Both offenses average +0.24 EPA/play; Purdue allows +0.25 defensive EPA/play, while UCLA averages 31.97 seconds per play.
- Pinnacle's current 53 total at -103 corroborates the projection direction; same-day web coverage and box data identify Browne and Iamaleava as the QBs.
- UCLA's defense is strong at -0.11 defensive EPA/play, and Purdue's 26.99-second pace can create a slower script.
Show all 13 picks
- Purdue Boilermakers spread +12−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 10% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Purdue's two-game offense is .244 EPA/play with a 54.5% success rate, essentially matching UCLA's .243 and 53.3%.
- Purdue's 15.5% explosive-play rate exceeds UCLA's 13.8%, supporting scoring and backdoor-cover paths.
- Ryan Browne has 646 passing yards, 4 TD and 0 INT; Sep. 19 reporting expected Browne and Nico Iamaleava to play.
- UCLA's defense is the major mismatch: -0.11 defensive EPA/play versus Purdue's +0.25.
- UCLA Bruins spread −15−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- UCLA's current defensive EPA allowed is -0.11 over 2 games versus Purdue's +0.25; the 0.37-point gap supports UCLA margin.
- UCLA's 2026 offense averages +0.24 EPA/play and 0.53 success rate; Purdue's defense has allowed +0.25 EPA/play.
- Two-game 2026 samples are thin; the coverage gate required a prior-season fallback, so this is capped LEAN.
- Game total over 52.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- game 2026 sample: Purdue +0.24 EPA/play, 54.5% success, 15.5% explosive; UCLA +0.25, 52.6%, 13.8%.
- Purdue defense has allowed +0.25 EPA/play; UCLA offense averages +0.25, the clearest scoring mismatch.
- Current pace averages 27.0 seconds/play for Purdue and 32.3 for UCLA; PROE is +0.15 and +0.04.
- Most likely loss: UCLA's strong defense repeats its -0.11 EPA/play start and Purdue stalls.
- Purdue wins 1st Half−100%Lost
Taken at 21¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Purdue averaged +0.24 offensive EPA/play over its two 2026 games; UCLA allowed -0.11 defensive EPA/play.
- UCLA averaged +0.24 offensive EPA/play against Purdue's +0.25 defensive EPA/play allowed: a 0.37-play matchup gap toward Purdue.
- Purdue averaged 76.5 offensive plays at 26.99 seconds/play versus UCLA's 64 plays at 31.97 seconds/play, supporting more early possessions.
- Only two 2026 games per team; opponent quality and schedule strength are not adjusted.
- 1H total over 27.5 points+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Bottom-up first-half projection is approximately 30, 32 points, above the 27.5 threshold.
- Purdue averaged 77 plays, 27.0 seconds per play, +15.1% PROE and 3.53 points per drive across two 2026 games.
- UCLA averaged 64 plays, 2.77 points per drive and 52.6% offensive success; both offenses have produced positive EPA/play.
- UCLA’s 32.3-second average pace and -0.11 defensive EPA/play allowed could compress Purdue’s scoring.
- Purdue Boilermakers spread +13.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Purdue averaged 54.5% offensive success and 15.5% explosiveness through two 2026 games, supporting margin resistance at 13.5.
- Purdue scored 36 against Wake Forest and 44 against Indiana State; the offense has enough early-season efficiency to threaten a backdoor cover.
- Pinnacle prices the same Purdue +13.5 at -101; ProphetX improves that reference to +104.
- UCLA's defense averaged -0.11 EPA/play allowed across its two games, the clearest path to Purdue failing to sustain drives.
- Game total points under 52.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX's 52.5 game total is 1.5 below the listed 19.5 + 34.5 team-total thresholds.
- UCLA's 2026 offense has operated at 30.51 and 34.12 seconds per play; Purdue's two-game marks are 29.99 and 24.00, supporting a restrained possession count.
- UCLA's defense allowed -0.22 EPA/play last week, while Purdue's offense had only 0.51 success rate against Wake Forest.
- Both teams have only two 2026 advanced-stat rows; prior-season rows are the flagged fallback, so this is capped at LEAN.
Questions
Who won Purdue vs. UCLA?
UCLA won 52-38 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.