FinalAlbertsons Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOUT | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 24 |
| BOIS | 7 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 38 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-7 on this game · −100% return
- Boise State −28 spread−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days - Boise State spread −28.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The exact 28-point margin appears 297 times in the CFB histogram versus 109 exact 29-point margins; the -28/-28.5 rung pair is not flat.
- ProphetX prices Boise -28 at -105 but -28.5 at +102, only a 1.7-point implied-probability haircut for crossing a dense margin number.
- Pinnacle's reference spread is Boise -28; Boise's 2026 offense averages +0.23 EPA/play across two games, supporting the existing mean rather than a wider rung.
- point Boise win loses this half-point contract; that exact margin is the key-number failure mode.
- Game total under 58−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- South Dakota’s lone prior-season fallback sample posted -0.25 offensive EPA/play, .340 success and .060 explosive rate; Boise’s two-game 2026 defense allowed +.1254 EPA/play.
- Most likely loss: Boise’s offense converts South Dakota’s prior .5791 defensive EPA allowed into a 50-plus-point game before South Dakota contributes.
- South Dakota has no 2026 cfb_team_game_adv row; the fallback is only one prior-season game, so the projection is thin and capped LEAN.
- Boise State Broncos spread −30.5−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Personnel check: ESPN lists A. Modrzewski for South Dakota and M. Madsen for Boise; neither is marked out, questionable, or a game-time decision.
- Live ProphetX contract: -30.5 at +121 / 45.25¢; FCS-opponent coverage caps this at LEAN, so stake is 0.5 units.
- Most likely loss: Boise leads comfortably but relaxes late, finishing inside 30 points after garbage-time scoring or a missed late conversion.
- Game total points under 60.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX’s 60.5 game total is 1.5 points above its 14.5 + 44.5 team-total sum.
- South Dakota’s fallback 2025 sample produced only 0.34 success rate and 0.06 explosive rate across 50 plays.
- Personnel gate cleared: the official South Dakota preview names Austyn Modrzewski; Boise’s last two 2026 box scores were led by Maddux Madsen.
- Boise’s two 2026 pace rows are highly unstable (33.41 and 7.58 seconds per play), widening the possession-count range.
- South Dakota Coyotes to win−100%Lost
Taken at 5¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- That is a 0.48-point model gap, roughly 9.1% relative value before model uncertainty.
- Pinnacle posts South Dakota +1305 while ProphetX offers +1800, a material venue outlier on the same moneyline.
- The most likely loss is Boise State turning its FBS talent edge into an early multi-score rout.
Show all 7 picks
- Game total under 60.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX also favors both team unders: Boise State under 44.5 at -120; South Dakota under 14.5 at -380.
- Pinnacle offers under 60 at -108; ProphetX supplies a half-point higher number at -104.
- Boise State scored 38 against Memphis and could clear its 44.5 team total alone.
Questions
Who won South Dakota vs. Boise State?
Boise State won 38-24 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.