FinalWarren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STON | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| MASS | 13 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 36 |
Top model pick, graded
WonStonehill Skyhawks spread +31.5 53¢
Why Long Way Home likes it: Stonehill's first three scores: 6-24, 21-3, 35-42; two losses were by 18 and 7.
Long Way HomeDown 4% this season · 3706 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-3 on this game · −53% return
- Massachusetts Minutemen spread −27.5−100%Lost
Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 PFF card: Massachusetts 91.1 overall and 87.6 defense versus Stonehill 72.1 overall and 61.5 defense.
- Massachusetts is 2-0, 74-31; its two-game offense averages 0.23 EPA/play and a 47.6% success rate.
- The -27.5 rung stays within 10 points of ProphetX's -31 main number and avoids unsupported tail pricing.
- Most likely loss: Stonehill quarterback Jack O'Connell's 2026 production (774 passing yards, six touchdowns) creates a backdoor cover.
- Massachusetts Minutemen spread −31.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- UMass posted +0.25 and +0.22 offensive EPA/play with .4524 and .5000 success rates across its 2 current-season games.
- 2026 PFF card favors UMass: 87.6 defense/86.7 coverage/90.5 run defense versus Stonehill's 61.5/59.1/60.0.
- UMass scored 37 points in each opening game; Stonehill has no current-season team-adv rows, a data-light FCS mismatch that caps this at LEAN.
- Most likely loss: UMass leads comfortably, rotates early, and the margin stalls below 32.
- Stonehill Skyhawks spread +31.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Stonehill's first three scores: 6-24, 21-3, 35-42; two losses were by 18 and 7.
- UMass won its first two by 16 and 27, below this spread; its offense has not yet shown a 32-point margin.
- Stonehill reports 35:05 time of possession and zero interceptions through two games, supporting variance control.
- v-FBS talent gap can produce an abrupt fourth-quarter margin; UMass scoring four-plus touchdowns is the clearest loss path.
- Game total points over 52.5−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Stonehill's official September 12 recap recorded 35 points and Jack O'Connell for 380 yards and four TDs; the recent scoring profile supports a higher-tail outcome.
- The ladder is orderly rather than a self-reference contradiction; team-total offers are only $30 each, so they are context, not executable legs.
- UMass has allowed only 15.5 points per game through two contests; a one-sided game could shorten the second-half pace.
Questions
Who won Stonehill vs. Massachusetts?
Massachusetts won 36-14 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.