FinalKyle Field
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK | 0 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 31 |
| TA&M | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
Top model pick, graded
WonKentucky Wildcats to win 12¢
Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-4 on this game · +81% return
- Kentucky Wildcats to win+733%Won
Taken at 12¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days - 3-leg parlay−100%Lost
Taken at −135
Short YardageUp 10% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Texas A&M -850 DK (89.5% raw) vs 93.0% model; current 2-game defense EPA allowed -0.34 and PFF overall 91.3.
- Duke -395 DK (79.8% raw) vs 84.5% model; Stanford's current defense EPA allowed is +0.45 with 1.35 points per drive.
- Virginia -410 DK (80.4% raw) vs 83.5% model; Cavaliers pair -0.29 defensive EPA allowed with a 97.0 PFF overall grade.
- Kentucky's current offense EPA is +0.20 versus Texas A&M's +0.13, creating a backdoor risk despite the Aggies' defensive gap.
- Texas A&M Aggies 1H spread over 6.5 NO+163%Won
Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle full-game spread is Texas A&M -17; halving the mean gives an 8.5-point first-half projection.
- 2,042 completed FBS games from 2024-2026 produce full-game margin SD 15.59; sqrt-half scaling gives 1H SD 11.03, not 7.80.
- At the 6.5 rung, mean 8.5 and SD 11.03 give P(Texas A&M over 6.5) ≈57.2%, so model fair NO ≈42.8% versus 38¢ purchase price.
- Only two 2026 games per team; Kentucky's and Texas A&M's current EPA/PPD estimates are thin and opponent-adjustment is limited.
- Texas A&M Aggies wins 1st Half−100%Lost
Taken at 77¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Texas A&M averaged 3.31 points per drive across two 2026 games versus Kentucky's 2.46.
- Texas A&M's recent defensive EPA allowed averaged -0.34, while Kentucky's averaged +0.14.
- Marcel Reed and Kenny Minchey are both cleared as current starters; the opening-script QB gate is satisfied.
- Only two 2026 games per team make the efficiency sample thin.
- Willie Rodriguez over 4.5 receptions−100%Lost
Taken at +139 on BetOnline
Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Target share rose from 6/27 (22.2%) to 8/32 (25.0%) across 2 games; share CV is approximately 8%.
- Yards per reception fell from 12.0 to 6.1 (-49.0%) while target share rose: usage-production divergence.
- PFF route rate averaged 92.4% (100.0% and 84.8%), confirming a substantial opportunity share.
- Only two 2026 games; PARTIAL coverage and the two-game sizing cap require 0.5u.
- Kentucky Wildcats over 16.5 team points+88%Won
Taken at −113 on FanDuel
Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted EPA delta is +0.55/play: Kentucky offense 0.20 minus Texas A&M defensive EPA allowed -0.34.
- Kentucky's success/explosive rates average 0.54/0.14 versus 0.33/0.08 for Texas A&M's opponents.
- Both teams have only two 2026 qualifying games; the partial sample is volatile despite six Kentucky red-zone trips.
Show all 8 picks
- 1H total under 27.5+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects approximately 22.0 first-half points; under estimated at 66%.
- Texas A&M averaged 30.52 seconds per play and 3.31 points per drive over two games.
- Kentucky averaged 2.46 points per drive; Texas A&M's defense allowed -0.34 EPA per play across its two games.
- Only two games per team; the coverage tier is low and opponent quality is mixed.
- Game 1H total over 26.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle full-game total is 50.0; same teams averaged 24 combined drives across two games.
- Pace blend is 29.9 seconds/play; prior first halves produced 70, 72 combined plays and six drives per team.
- Raw PPD: Kentucky 2.39, Texas A&M 3.28; PROE/explosive blend (.090/.130) implies an 11.0% first-half uplift.
- Two-game sample is thin: Kentucky PPD ranged 4.09 to 0.83; Texas A&M ranged 4.00 to 2.62.
Questions
Who won Kentucky vs. Texas A&M?
Kentucky won 31-21 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.