FinalMcLane Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LT | 7 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| BAY | 7 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 36 |
Top model pick, graded
WonBaylor Bears 1H spread NO 13.5 56¢
Why Early Cover likes it: Pinnacle Baylor -20 full-game; scaled first-half mean is 10.0 points.
Early CoverDown 3% this season · 435 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-5 on this game · −42% return
- Game total under 49−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
ProphetX Pairs- Baylor’s 2026 defense is -0.34 EPA/play versus Louisiana Tech’s -0.15; both defenses support a lower-scoring script.
- Warehouse results show Baylor scored 16 and 44, while Louisiana Tech scored 14 and 80; the replacement-QB adjustment discounts the outlier blowouts.
- The quarterback news is media-reported; cfb_injury_latest returned no official rows, so final availability and replacement performance remain uncertain.
Long Way Home- Pinnacle posted Under 50.5 at -106, while ProphetX offers the lower Under 49 threshold at +108.
- Baylor's 2026 defense produced -0.60 EPA/play allowed in Week 2; Louisiana Tech's offense posted -0.62 EPA/play at LSU.
- Louisiana Tech scored 80 against Northwestern State and Baylor scored 44 against Prairie View A&M; opponent adjustment is a thin two-game sample.
- Baylor Bears −19.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Baylor Bears 1H spread NO 13.5+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle Baylor -20 full-game; scaled first-half mean is 10.0 points.
- 1,853 FBS games (2024-25) SD 14.77; sqrt-half scaling gives first-half SD 10.44.
- 13.5 sits beside empirical 14-point mass; 66 games in the sample.
- Both announced starters are backups; the official Baylor page is stale, so a late quarterback change breaks the projection.
- Under 27.5 1H points scored+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Script-based projection centers the first-half total around 24-25 points, leaving a 2.5-3.5 point cushion below 27.5.
- Louisiana Tech averaged only 0.47 points per drive and 28.87 seconds per play in its latest game against LSU.
- Trey Kukuk is confirmed over Blake Baker, adding quarterback uncertainty to a Louisiana Tech offense with only 7 recorded pass attempts from Kukuk this season.
- Louisiana Tech scored 80 points and posted 5.21 points per drive against Northwestern State, showing extreme opponent-sensitive variance.
- Baylor Bears wins 1st Half+19%Won
Taken at 84¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Baylor's two-game average: +0.04 offensive EPA/play and 49.4% success rate; Louisiana Tech: +0.01 and 41.7%.
- Nate Bennett and Trey Kukuk are confirmed starters; Louisiana Tech loses Blake Baker, who had 35 pass attempts last game, while Kukuk had 3.
- Baylor's latest offense ran 88 plays at 22.34 seconds per play versus Louisiana Tech's 60 plays at 28.87 seconds per play.
- Baylor also starts a backup quarterback, so Bennett's opening-script efficiency remains uncertain.
- 1H total over 27.5−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Two-game sample: Baylor averaged 7.5 first-half drives and Louisiana Tech 7.5; both projected to 15 combined first-half possessions.
- Two-game sample is thin; Louisiana Tech has an anomalous 6.42-second pace row versus 28.87, so drive counts were trusted over raw pace.
Show all 7 picks
- Baylor Bears spread −20−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Baylor's defense posted -0.67 EPA/play allowed in its latest game, while Louisiana Tech's offense posted -0.62 EPA/play against LSU.
- Baylor has allowed 20 points across two games; Louisiana Tech scored 14 against LSU after its FCS outburst.
- Most likely loss: Baylor's offense stalls against a stronger opponent and fails to separate beyond 20.
Questions
Who won Louisiana Tech vs. Baylor?
Baylor won 36-19 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.