FinalMemorial Stadium (Bloomington
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WKU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| IU | 0 | 14 | 17 | 7 | 38 |
Top model pick, graded
WonWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers spread +44.5 49¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-4 on this game · −29% return
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers spread +44.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Indiana Hoosiers over 52.5 team points−100%Lost
Taken at +100 on FanDuel
Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- EPA delta +0.14/play: Indiana offense .5789 minus WKU defensive allowance .4362.
- Pace is 32.70 seconds/play for Indiana and 24.42 for WKU; the opponent clock supports possessions.
- Only two qualifying 2026 games per team; PARTIAL coverage leaves a volatile sample.
- Indiana Hoosiers 1H spread over 26.5+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle full-game Indiana -44.5 implies a 22.25-point naive half mean.
- 2026 rates: Indiana averaged 0.58 EPA/play, 5.34 points/drive, .196 explosive rate; WKU averaged .014, 1.41, .067.
- Conservative data-based fast-start adjustment gives mean 25.5; empirical full-game SD 14.77 scales to 10.44 first-half SD.
- Only two 2026 games per team make EPA, explosiveness, and points-per-drive estimates thin.
- Over 10.5 1Q points scored−100%Lost
Taken at 70¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Indiana averaged 0.58 offensive EPA/play and a 54.6% success rate across its first two games.
- WKU averaged only 0.01 offensive EPA/play and 41.0% success; its defense allowed 0.44 EPA/play.
- Model projects roughly 15-16 first-quarter points from Indiana’s efficient offense plus high WKU tempo (24.4 seconds/play).
- Only two 2026 games per team; opponent quality makes the efficiency sample fragile.
- Game total over 61−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 team results average 69 total points across four games; the simple matchup blend remains above 61.
- Indiana averages 53.5 points and 0.56 offensive EPA/play; WKU allows 59.5 points and 0.44 defensive EPA/play.
- Pinnacle lists over 61 at +100; ProphetX improves the same number to +106, or 48.54¢.
- Most likely loss: WKU's offense stalls and Indiana throttles pace after halftime.
- Indiana Hoosiers spread −44.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Indiana posted +0.56 offensive EPA/play; WKU posted +0.01, a 0.55-play efficiency gap.
- Indiana’s defense allowed -0.10 EPA/play; WKU allowed +0.44, supporting a stronger-than-market mismatch.
- Josh Hoover is indicated for Indiana; Rodney Tisdale was named WKU’s starter, with no injury signal found.
- Most likely loss path: Indiana leads comfortably but concedes late scores or relaxes into a backdoor cover.
Questions
Who won Western Kentucky vs. Indiana?
Indiana won 38-0 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.