FinalWallace Wade Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STAN | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| DUKE | 0 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 35 |
Top model pick, graded
WonDuke −10 spread 50¢
House RulesDown 3% this season · 1403 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-7 on this game · −22% return
- Stanford Cardinal to win−100%Lost
Taken at 24¢ on Polymarket
2 modelsCFB Heater, Resting MoneyWhy 2 models like it
CFB Heater- Duke is 2-0 and recent advanced form is materially better: +0.18 offensive EPA/play versus Stanford at -0.02.
Resting Money- Directional check: backing Stanford Cardinal, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Book-level count does not corroborate the Stanford side: both sides show 3 levels.
- 3-leg parlay−100%Lost
Taken at −135
Short YardageUp 10% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Texas A&M -850 DK (89.5% raw) vs 93.0% model; current 2-game defense EPA allowed -0.34 and PFF overall 91.3.
- Duke -395 DK (79.8% raw) vs 84.5% model; Stanford's current defense EPA allowed is +0.45 with 1.35 points per drive.
- Virginia -410 DK (80.4% raw) vs 83.5% model; Cavaliers pair -0.29 defensive EPA allowed with a 97.0 PFF overall grade.
- Kentucky's current offense EPA is +0.20 versus Texas A&M's +0.13, creating a backdoor risk despite the Aggies' defensive gap.
- Game total over 51−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days - Duke −10 spread+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days - Stanford Cardinal spread +10−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- QB gate cleared: Davis Warren led Stanford with 41 attempts; Duke's Walker Eget led with 21 and is listed by Duke.
- Duke's 2026 EPA edge is substantial: offense +0.13, defense allowed -0.07 versus Stanford -0.02/+0.45.
- Benji Blackburn over 4.5 receptions−100%Lost
Taken at −132 on FanDuel
Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Target-share proxy rose from 11/34 (32.4%) to 18/42 (42.9%) across 2 games; CV is approximately 14%.
- Receiving yards per catch fell from 9.8 to 7.4 (-24.5%) while opportunity share rose: usage-production divergence.
- Stanford is a 9.5-point underdog, a pass-script lean without the brief's greater-than-24-point blowout concern.
- Only 2 current-season games; this is PARTIAL coverage and the two-game cap requires 0.5u.
Show all 11 picks
- Duke Blue Devils 1H spread NO 6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION, 2026 data gives Duke 2.38 points/drive versus Stanford 1.35 across two games per team; projected first-half mean is 5.5.
- Variance: 2,042 FBS finals from 2024-26 have margin SD 15.59; sqrt-possession scaling gives first-half SD 11.02, not 7.79.
- At the exact 6.5 rung, mean 5.5 and SD 11.02 produce Duke-over probability 46.4%, so NO is 53.6% versus a 49¢ buy price.
- Only two 2026 games per team; raw points/drive is highly schedule-sensitive and not fully opponent-adjusted.
- 1H total under 26.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Bottom-up projection is roughly 22-24 first-half points from recent PPD and pace, below 26.5.
- Recent PPD averages 2.38 for Duke and 1.35 for Stanford; opponent EPA supports Duke efficiency but weak Stanford scoring.
- Duke averaged 29.6 seconds per play and Stanford 24.1; roughly six drives each limits the projected half.
- Only two games per team and no first-half splits; projection error can exceed one touchdown.
- Duke Blue Devils wins 1st Half+49%Won
Taken at 67¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model: Duke 1H win 72%; devigged Kalshi three-way substitute reference is 68%.
- Recent points per drive average 2.38 for Duke versus 1.35 for Stanford across two 2026 games.
- Recent EPA/play averages: Duke offense +0.13; Stanford offense -0.02; Duke defense allowed -0.07.
- Only two 2026 games per team; opponent adjustment and first-half splits are thin.
- Game 1H total under 26.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 season-to-date, Stanford averaged 24.06 seconds/play and 79.5 plays/game; Duke averaged 29.66 seconds/play and 71.0 plays/game.
- Observed first-half usage averaged 7.0 Stanford drives/38 plays and 4.5 Duke drives/35 plays: 11.5 projected drives.
- Specific PROE uplift: average PROE was +0.08, producing an 8.0% scripted-start adjustment and a 21.75-point projection.
- The warehouse weather fields were null; external forecasts ranged from 20% to 65% shower chance, so the possession cut is unresolved.
- Game total under 52+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- current 2026 pace is 29.59 sec/play Duke and 24.07 Stanford; Duke PROE -0.02, Stanford +0.18, with only 0.12/0.12 explosive rates.
- Stanford's .4568 offensive success rate meets Duke's -0.07 defensive EPA allowed; Duke's .4379 success rate meets Stanford's +.446 allowed, creating a strong Duke-side scoring path but not a balanced shootout.
- 2025 fallback sample (14 Duke, 12 Stanford games) was flagged: Duke averaged 22.27 sec/play and .145 explosive rate; Stanford .097 explosive rate, with both defenses near +.14 EPA allowed.
- Current 2026 sample is only two games per team, below the three-game target; prior-season fallback forces this to LEAN sizing.
Questions
Who won Stanford vs. Duke?
Duke won 35-7 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.