FinalWilliams Stadium (VA)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | 7 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 15 |
| LIB | 13 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 51 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame over 49.5 total 49¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-2 on this game · +29% return
- Game over 49.5 total+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - 2-leg parlay+71%Won
Taken at −140
Short YardageUp 10% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Liberty model 90.0% versus 86.7% raw implied at -650; clears the +3-point leg gate.
- Liberty's current PFF grade is 77.9 versus Ball State's 66.1, with pass-blocking 68.6 versus 53.0.
- Toledo model 79.0% versus 67.2% raw implied at -205; current EPA gap is +0.32 versus Temple's +0.03 offense and -0.18 versus +0.20 defense.
- Both current efficiency samples cover only two games, so early-season estimates are widened conservatively.
- Liberty Flames 1H spread over 6.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2,042 CFB games (2024-26): full-game margin SD 15.59; sqrt-half scaling gives 11.02, not 7.79.
- Pinnacle's -14.0 full-game Liberty spread scales to a +7.0 first-half mean, leaving 6.5 near the mean.
- College key-number check: exactly 7 occurred 145 times in the sample; the 6.5 rung catches that mass but does not erase the variance lean.
- Only two 2026 games per team; current points-per-drive and EPA inputs are thin and opponent-adjustment is uncertain.
- Liberty Flames spread −14+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Liberty's 2026 offense averages +0.01 EPA/play against Ball State's +0.25 defensive EPA/play allowed, two-game current sample.
- Liberty's current offensive success rate is 43.1% versus Ball State's 41.9%; Liberty also owns the stronger 2026 PFF card, 77.9 overall to 66.1.
- 2025 fallback supports the mismatch: Liberty's 12-game offensive profile was materially stronger than Ball State's, flagged as prior-season support because current samples have only two games.
- Most likely loss: Liberty wins but Ball State produces a late backdoor score to stay within 14.
- Ball State Cardinals wins 1st Half−100%Lost
Taken at 18¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Ball State's latest game posted +0.25 offensive EPA/play, 52.1% success and 3.15 points/drive.
- Liberty's latest offense was +0.07 EPA/play, 42.7% success and 1.60 points/drive.
- Opening-script estimate: Ball State wins the half about 27%, versus a 17.9% devigged Kalshi three-way reference.
- Only two 2026 games per team; Ball State's efficiency sample includes a poor Ohio State outing and one weaker opponent.
- Game 1H total over 24.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 12 projected first-half drives: Ball State averaged 6 and Liberty averaged 6 across their two 2026 games.
- Week-2 pace was 29.58 seconds/play for Ball State and 27.89 for Liberty; Week-1 pace rows were excluded as unit-error outliers.
- Only 2 contracts traded; the 47¢, 49¢ book is thin despite the 2¢ spread, so this is exploratory sizing.
Questions
Who won Ball State vs. Liberty?
Liberty won 51-15 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.