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Arkansas State vs. LouisianaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalOur Lady of Lourdes Stadium
Arkansas State2–2
20–23Final
Louisiana3–1
Score by period
Team1234T
ARST0103720
UL7031323

Top model pick, graded

Won

Arkansas State Red Wolves spread +6.5 55¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 8-9 on this game · −14% return

  1. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns spread −52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Saturday Board Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Efficiency gap favors Louisiana: current offensive EPA/play is +0.150 versus Arkansas State defensive EPA allowed +0.180; Arkansas State offense is +0.091 against Louisiana defense at -0.339 allowed.
    • Most likely loss: Arkansas State's transition offense and explosive plays turn Louisiana's efficiency edge into a one-score game.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Four-game 2026 FBS sample: Louisiana offense averages +0.1164 EPA/play against Arkansas State defense allowing +0.1786; Arkansas State offense averages +0.0905 against Louisiana defense allowing -0.3958.
    • Louisiana owns the pace environment: 30.04 seconds/play across four games versus Arkansas State's 32.83; the slower home favorite fits the existing under-total thesis.
    • Most likely loss: Louisiana's weak 41.0 PFF pass-block grade cannot withstand Arkansas State pressure, producing a one-score home win or outright upset.
  2. Game total under 502 models agree
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Tempo Board
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Four-game FBS sample: Arkansas State produces +0.091 EPA/play and 50.1% success against Louisiana's -0.339 defensive EPA/play allowed.
    • Louisiana's offense is +0.150 EPA/play against Arkansas State's +0.180 defensive EPA/play allowed; only the Cajuns side has a clean efficiency matchup.
    • Most likely loss: Louisiana turns Arkansas State's +0.180 defensive EPA allowed into 30-plus points while Arkansas State contributes enough to clear 50.
    Tempo Board
    • The ladder is coherent: under 49 is -103 and under 48 is +111; the selected 50-point rung supplies the best qualifying cushion.
    • four 2026 games each show 32.68 / 30.34 seconds per play, +8.9% / +0.7% PROE, 12.4% / 11.1% explosive rate, and 50.1% / 45.2% success for Arkansas State / Louisiana.
    • Most likely loss: Louisiana's 2.62 points per drive and Arkansas State's +0.181 defensive EPA allowed create enough efficient home scoring for 51-plus.
  3. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns spread −5.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX Pairs
    • only 2026 averages across three games: Louisiana is +0.091 offensive EPA/play versus Arkansas State -0.008.
    • Defensive EPA allowed is -0.326 for Louisiana versus +0.214 for Arkansas State, a 0.539-play gap favoring the home side.
    • Only three FBS games per team inform the projection; no simulation was run.
    Long Way Home
    • Louisiana's four-game averages: +0.15 offensive EPA/play and -0.34 defensive EPA/play versus Arkansas State's +0.09 and +0.18.
    • Current form shows Louisiana +11.5 average scoring margin versus Arkansas State +1.5; my projection is Louisiana by roughly 7, about 54% to cover.
    • The EPA sample is only four games and schedule strength is not fully adjusted; Arkansas State's 0.50 offensive success rate exceeds Louisiana's 0.45.
  4. Arkansas State Red Wolves spread +6.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  5. Under 49.5 total points
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Load-bearing chances signal: 132.75 combined current-season plays project about 21 drives; opponent-adjusted efficiency and garbage-time discount keep the mean near 47.9.
    • Most likely loss: Louisiana's early explosive efficiency and Arkansas State's 20% explosive-rate game create enough quick scores to clear 50.
  6. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns to winFavorite
    +49%Won

    Taken at −205 on DraftKings

    D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Louisiana's recent-window offense EPA/play is +0.1455 versus Arkansas State's +0.0545.
    • Louisiana's defense allows -0.0701 EPA/play versus Arkansas State's +0.0985 allowed.
    • QB/injury family leans Louisiana: Lunch Winfield is the official-preview focus; Arkansas State has an out edge, out offensive lineman, and questionable running back.
    • The 4.3-point model edge is only 0.3 points above the hard gate.
Show all 15 picks
  1. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns wins 1st Half
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game 2026 averages: Louisiana 72.8 plays at 30.34 seconds/play versus Arkansas State's 60.0 at 32.68.
    • Louisiana averages +0.150 offensive EPA/play and -0.339 defensive EPA/play allowed; Arkansas State is +0.091 and +0.180.
    • QB gate cleared live: KTLO names Trey Owens and Lunch Winfield as the starters; last-game pass attempts were 31 and 26.
    • Only four 2026 games per team; opponent quality and early-season sample create model uncertainty.
  2. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns spread −3
    0%Push

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are Louisiana 3 versus Arkansas State 2, corroborating the thin-quote/deep-behind-it read.
    • Directional coherence: backing Louisiana -3, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • The -3 spread at the current 59.02¢ contract price can lose if Arkansas State keeps the game within a field goal.
  3. Arkansas State Red Wolves to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, so two of three measures agree; raw thin-side availability is still a few hundred dollars.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: both sides have 3 levels, so this is not a three-measure signal.
  4. Game total under 51
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 51 wins at 50 or fewer and pushes at exactly 51; it does not lose on 51.
    • exactly 51 total points occurred 134 of 3,660 games, a 3.661% push probability.
    • ProphetX quotes Under 51 at 56.33¢ (-129) versus Under 50.5 at 54.34¢ (-119), only a 1.99-point break-even gap against 3.661% exact-51 mass.
    • The 3.661% estimate is pooled 2022-25 CFB data; current teams, season, and scoring environment may differ.
  5. Louisiana −7 spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Louisiana -7 pushes at exactly a 7-point win; -7.5 loses there.
    • 2014-25 CFB: home teams winning by exactly 7 occurred 446/10,371 times (4.300%).
    • ProphetX quotes 41.67¢ (+140) on -7 versus 39.37¢ (+154) on -7.5.
    • The 4.300% figure is all-CFB home-margin data, not Louisiana-specific or favorite-conditioned.
  6. Arkansas State Red Wolves spread +7.5
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's main number is Louisiana -5, so +7.5 provides a two-point cushion beyond the sharp reference while remaining within the 10-point tail cap.
    • Arkansas State's latest PFF team card leads Louisiana 90.8-81.9 overall and 84.1-79.0 defensively, supporting margin resistance.
    • Trey Owens and Lunch Winfield are the current pass-attempt leaders; official game notes posted for this matchup list both quarterbacks.
    • Louisiana's 2026 offense averages +0.1498 EPA/play and its defense allows -0.3390 EPA/play, versus Arkansas State's +0.0905 and +0.1803.
  7. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns −5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    RnjDown 65% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1.5-point spread range: books show Louisiana -5 to -6.5; DraftKings offers -5.5.
    • Last-four net EPA/play: Louisiana +0.490 versus Arkansas State -0.090, a +0.580 differential.
    • Louisiana's defense has the stronger net-efficiency profile despite the market's middling consensus number.
    • Louisiana's last-four success rate is 45.8%, 4.2 points below Arkansas State's 50.1%.
  8. Game total under 48
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Key-number density: the under 47.5-to-under 48 step is only 1.46 probability points, while the CFB histogram records 316 exact-48 totals; the liquid under-48 rung retains that key-area value.
    • Louisiana’s 2026 defense allows -0.396 EPA/play over four games; Arkansas State’s offense is only +0.091 EPA/play against that matchup.
    • QB gate cleared this wake: official Louisiana notes list Lunch Winfield, official Arkansas State reporting identifies Trey Owens, and both led their latest passing boxes.
    • Most likely loss: 49 or more points; exactly 48 is a push, not a win.
  9. Game total over 50
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 four-game scoring averages total 55.75 points: Louisiana 30.75, Arkansas State 25.00.
    • Both official previews list Lunch Winfield and Trey Owens as expected quarterbacks; neither preview reports a QB injury concern.
    • Arkansas State averages .501 success rate and .124 explosive rate, providing a scoring path against Louisiana.
    • No game-day QB confirmation; the CFB X-signal returned no current report, so late availability remains uncertain.

Questions

Who won Arkansas State vs. Louisiana?

The Louisiana won 23–20 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.

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